Precious Metals

scorpion said:
There are certainly fundamentals pushing silver higher, but the recent price action is indicative of complete mania. It's trading like a crypto or meme stock at this point. There's money to be made here, but extreme caution is advised. If sentiment turns bearish it could easily lose 20-30% in a day or two.
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I think the runup is more indicative of two fundamental shifts, dedolarization, which is pushing reserve precious metals up, and industrial use, which makes silver closer to other high demand metals like copper or nickel, combined with the inelastic supply of silver (production cannot scale up massively in the short term in response to greater demand). There might also be a short squeeze situation where the price could be pushed above fundamentals.

But even if prices do go down, it will always be a good investment in the long run as we are in a prolonged period of high inflation.
 
Cooper said:
But even if prices do go down, it will always be a good investment in the long run as we are in a prolonged period of high inflation.
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Precious metals will obviously never be worthless, but if you buy at the peak of a massive run-up and then suffer a big correction, "the long run" can be very long indeed - you might not recover for a decade or more. If you bought silver during the last big peak around 2011, you would have been underwater until just a few months ago - fifteen years of stagnation, a time during which stocks saw absolutely explosive growth.
 
Cooper said:
I am a lot less worried about silver at $100 than say TSLA at 300 P/E, or the AI/Mag 7 bubble in general. IMHO silver at $150+ and gold in the $6k-$8k range later this decade are reasonable bets, YMMV...
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15% of my portfolio is in gold and the rest in world-ETFs. I share your concern and have been wondering if I should put more into gold.
 
This guy Dishner and Ben Cowen do good technical and historical analysis of BTC and the PMs. Dishner has really good 15 minute videos recently on how parabolic this gold run is and that it can go up another 30-40% still easily. But it's downdraft will be violent, too. Looking at gold from 1970-1980 it more or less 20x'd, and from 1980 to 2006 it stood still. Pretty amazing. It has now 3x since 2011.

The next 18 months are going to be crazy in every realm. I don't like what I see from 2028-2032 though (from the nation state side of things).
 
ed plrbs unm said:
I recall reading something along the lines of, every cruise missile the US produces requires about 5kg silver, while naval ships require several tonnes of it. Apparently there has been a production deficit (i.e. demand outstripping what comes out of the ground) for several years now.
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What do they use it for?
 
^Silver has the best conductivity properties of any metal, dissipates heat well and is more stable and resistant to corrosion than copper. It is also used in military grade batteries that run the circuitry of weapons.
 
Gold has already jumped another 100 dollars and is now trading at almost 5,100 USD per ounce in European markets.
US trading markets on the east coast haven't even opened yet.

Gold historically never moves this fast....it's totally unnatural to have these kinds of gains in such a short time,
Something big may be on the horizon (economy wise or currency related) and those in the know are moving accordingly.


 
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Price movementsBetween 2008 and 2012, the value of gold increased dramatically, as is evidenced by the 101.1-percent surgein the Producer Price Index (PPI) for gold.2 As Chairman Bernanke stated, gold prices can act as an indicator off the health of the economy. A rise in the price of gold maybe a signal that the economy is struggling.

As a result, intimes of either a crisis or inflation, many investors turnto gold to protect their principal. By contrast, in times ofeconomic stability, investors are more likely to turn tomore speculative investments, such as stocks, bonds, andreal estate. During these times, the price for gold oftendeclines. (See chart 1.)After rising 2.6 percent in 2008, the PPI for gold increased12.8 percent in 2009, as the United States was mired inthe economic and financial crises of the Great Recession,and the U.S. Federal Reserve ramped up its initial effortof quantitative (or monetary) easing.3 The extraordinarymoves by the U.S. Federal Reserve to inject liquidity intothe economy helped lower the value of the dollar, oftenseen as one of the main alternatives to gold.4 As a result ofthe economic contraction and monetary easing, investors,searching for a vehicle that would maintain their totalassets’ value, poured money into gold, further enhancingits value in the weak economic environment.5From September 2010 to September 2011, gold pricesjumped 50.6 percent, due to speculation surrounding anuneven recovery and volatility in the U.S. financial markets,

 
Pravoslavac said:
But how much is it driven by simple panic making rise a self fulfilling prophecy?
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The biggest buyers of gold are central banks of sovereign nations, and very wealthy financial institutions....so these amazing gains are not the same as say the stock market which is more driven by panic buying (FOMO) from single individuals. What common people do in terms of gold usually has little influence over its overall price. Meaning this movement is coming from the very top of the hierarchy.
 
Blade Runner said:
This guy Dishner and Ben Cowen do good technical and historical analysis of BTC and the PMs. Dishner has really good 15 minute videos recently on how parabolic this gold run is and that it can go up another 30-40% still easily. But it's downdraft will be violent, too. Looking at gold from 1970-1980 it more or less 20x'd, and from 1980 to 2006 it stood still. Pretty amazing. It has now 3x since 2011.
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We are in a very different situation to 1980 now. I don't expect a prolonged bear market when gold finally does go down. In 1980 the dollar (and fiat more generally) wasn't in its death throes. If gold has a huge parabolic run up sure it might have a bear market with a 50% draw-down that lasts two years but its not going to stay depressed for 10 or 20 years and will recover much faster. In 20 years time the dollar might not be around in its current iteration if it all. The dollar (and all fiat more generally) have a limited remaining lifespan and everybody knows it. Inflation isn't going away anytime soon. But yes all assets have cycles so gold if it runs hard enough might drop 50% and stay down for 2 or 3 years before resuming its bull trend. But with the endless money printing gold and silver must remain in a structural bull market.
 
PurpleUrkel said:
Nothing is happening.

Get. Out Now.

Either that, or play jew games, win jew prizes.
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Get out now and get into what? Sell your gold and silver for US dollars which they will continue to print more of? US dollars are more of a Jew game than gold or silver is. Aren't gold and silver supposed to be created by god (for those of you who are religious)? Whereas U.S. dollars are an invention of man designed to pervert natural law.
 
Investing is knowing where the puck is going, not where it is currently. The more an asset increases in price the less attractive it becomes.

Commodity investing is cyclical. It's about buying something undervalued, holding for 3-5 years while the price increases, and then rotating to an a different undervalued commodity.

The time to buy silver was at $20. At $100 you should be looking to sell and rotate to another asset class. Oil at $60 a barrel seems to be a great opportunity.
 
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