Moore's Law has already been disproven. You can't predict the future rate of development based on the past.
This is not a fair assessment of what I said. I am not predicting a rate, let alone one as fixed as Moore’s Law.
I said we could see a kind of Windows 95-to-2024-technology shift in a shorter period. Even if it took 50 years for this to transpire from now in 2024, the end result is likely to portend badly for humanity, with mass automation and social upheaval.
What some of you forget is this:
we could have so-called “AI”/pseudo-AI, not AI in the true, purist sense of the term, and still see hundreds of millions of people lose their jobs and watch either an angry collapse take place or a dystopian corporate-government oligopoly come into being.
I am neither a Marxist nor one of their modern reincarnations, but I advise everyone to read Thomas Piketty’s
Capital in the 21st Century or Joel Kotkin’s
Neo-Feudalism.
Kotkin, whatever political disagreements I may have with him, hits the nail on the head about a shrinking middle-class and growing corporate elite. He wrote his work before this new AI/“AI” craze and was concerned with traditional automation.
AI does not need to be “real AI” for it to either sleepwalk humanity off a cliff, or usher in a FAANG(Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google)-style overlordship on steroids.
The general trend is for technological change to speed up. I do not see how this is controversial at all. There may be exceptions (often caused by geopolitics in the case of Rome’s fall, plagues like the Black Death, or perhaps natural disasters like an unprecedented solar storm in the future). But human technological development, if not exponential, more resembles a geometric progression than an arithmetic sequence.
The Bronze and Iron Ages occurred over many centuries. The Industrial Revolution took around a century and even that was slow by 2024 standards.
Events like the Dark Ages (which were not as dark as commonly thought) did have an impact on technology, with many areas of Europe needing to wait a thousand years for things like the aqueducts seen in Roman times.
Yet the general rule is that things speed up.