For the top 10% in the US own 90% of the US stock market, it will be a wash, or a net positive. For the rest, not so much, with higher costs for food, gas, utilities etc.
Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
For the top 10% in the US own 90% of the US stock market, it will be a wash, or a net positive. For the rest, not so much, with higher costs for food, gas, utilities etc.
Overseas deployments are incredibly unpopular in Japan ever since the end of WWII. Isolationism is in their political DNA. And the Japanese navy lacks the needed UNREP capacity to support a force that far from her shores. Probably buy from other sources at a higher price. Indonesia, the U.S.
EDIT: Iran allowed a Pakistani bound tanker to pass unmolested. Wonder if we could see oil pass through Pakistan similar to Russian oil through 3rd parties. Be a solution to East Asias supply crunch.
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Tabloid NY Post says that US intelligence is claiming new aytalloah is a homo:
nypost.com
Trump was apparently loling hard when he heard the news
Exclusive | Trump briefed that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is probably gay — and president has priceless reaction
The shocking claim was described to The Post by two intelligence community officials and a third person close to the Trump administration.
nypost.com
Trump was apparently loling hard when he heard the news
Even if claimed Satanyahoo comes out in public he's gonna be as convincing as this guy:
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Yeah like their profit centers in Refining in the Gulf Coast
Upstream E&P in Permian?
Are you thinking of non-US oil companies maybe?
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France — OFFICIALLY REJECTED. Will not send warships.
China — No response. Called it a "sovereign right."
United Kingdom — "Discussing options with allies." No commitment.
Japan — Silence. 70% of Japan's Middle East oil comes through Hormuz.
South Korea — No confirmation. Seoul caught between Washington and its own oil dependency.
Germany — No convoy support.
Norway — Rejected.
Qatar — Already STOPPED gas production. Declared force majeure. Their energy minister said "this will bring down economies of the world."
UAE — Gulf states "tried to stop this war because they knew the implications."
Iran — Still attacking ships. Still laying mines. Still blocking the strait.
Reading Macron's latest statement:
where he talks about "freedom of navigation" and "protection of own interests", I wouldn't rule out French involvement. There are 52 France-affiliated ships stuck in the Gulf right now, and France has already demonstrated willingness to protect its own shipping during the Red Sea crisis. France also has mutual defense pacts with GCC countries. And the French navy is out at sea in force. There are frigates in the Red Sea and off the coast of Cyprus. The "De Gaulle" carrier group just redeployed to the Eastern Mediterranean. And 2 Mistral-class amphibious assault ships, with frigate escorts, are nearby as well: "Tonnerre" in the Eastern Mediterranean, and "Dixmude" in the Indian Ocean.
This is really easy to counter.
Just have your secret service turn off traffic cameras everywhere near important leaders, and have "decoys" that turn off cameras in a similar movement pattern.
Body doubles would work as well.
Of course, it gets trickier once satellites can accurately recognise your face. I'm pretty sure they can already, but cloud cover is a funny protection there.
The other problem is that mobile phones constantly take pictures even when you aren't using them.
This can be proven using any infrared camera. So every mobile phone in the world could potentially feed your enemies intel.
Here's the YouTuber I learned about this from:
Surely the Iranian military is gonna hear about this and try and find the man?
Russia is much closer to Japan and would be the most ideal place for them to get their oil from, but they not allowed to do that, things can change though
The Pentagon's top AI officer live demoed the software the United States military is using right now to select and destroy targets inside Iran.Cameron Stanley is the Department of War's Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer and he personally built Project Maven back in 2021.The system is called Maven Smart System.Maven takes satellite imagery, drone footage, intercepted communications and over 150 other intelligence feeds and fuses them all into a single screen.One operator sits down and the software tells them what to hit, how to hit it, and which weapon to use.The military used to need eight or nine separate systems just to find and strike a single target.Maven replaced all of that with one platform.
A Palantir architect put a number on it and said that tasks which once required 2,000 intelligence officers now require only 20 people.Stanley walked through the entire process live on stage for the audience to see.He clicked left, clicked right, and clicked left again, and a blip on a map became a confirmed detection.That detection entered a targeting workflow where the software automatically recommended which weapon should be used to prosecute the target.He said the system gets better every single day because Palantir updates it based on real-time feedback from operators in the field.That is not how traditional defense procurement works because that is Silicon Valley software development running a live war.The AI brain powering Maven is Claude, which was built by Anthropic.That is the same Anthropic that the Trump administration blacklisted and labeled a supply chain risk just days before the war started.
The Pentagon banned all contractors from doing business with Anthropic but kept using the software that runs on Anthropic's model to bomb Iran.
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I think being unprovokedly attacked and bombed might make people hostile.
A primer:
How oil majors shift billions in profits to island tax havens
Bermuda and the Bahamas aren’t exactly big players in the oil-and-gas world. They don’t produce any of the fuels at all. Yet the islands are deep wells of profit for European oil giant Royal Dutch Shell Plc.
www.reuters.com
I think Magoo will confirm that Macron's stance here is 100% posturing and faggotry, as usual for him.
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Follow up: this was the situation before this latest oil shock, things are going to get worse from here:
You don't put that much tonnage at sea just for show. Even if they won't commit to regular convoys, at the very least they might want to evacuate all their ships that are currently trapped in the Gulf.
It looks like ships that want a safe passage must sail through a designated corridor, not the regular shipping lane, close to the Iranian coast for verification.
Brotherhood tweeted:
For people who need a zero-BS geopolitical recap, here is the current chess board as it stands
* The Strait of Hormuz is closed to US allies, critically Japan, India and SK
* There is a finite amount of time before strategic oil reserves run out in those countries and shortages start for every industry downstream of oil, including food. Oil prices rising also affects every country for the same reason
* Iran has mostly survived the assault against them and has the ability to strike naval craft within 500m of them reliably with their drones and missiles. This keeps tankers and the USN unable to get through the Strait
* Trump is running out of viable moves to open it. The MEU being sent now arrives in about 1.5 weeks and will attempt to capture Kharg island to reduce Iran's ability to sell oil, which accounts for almost all their revenue due to sanctions. This would cripple the IRGC
* If it fails there are only two escalation paths - boots on the ground on the mainland, or nukes. Neither is politically viable. Doing nothing is also politically non-viable as midterms approach
* Third option is concessions to Iran, manipulated domestically to look like Iranian surrender. Look for Iran to receive any of the following: Lifted sanctions, withdrawal from US bases, unfreezing assets, oil sold in non-USD
* Lastly, Israel is the wild card. Without US protection they will get destroyed by a combined Iran/Lebanon (and possibly Egypt). They will prevent Trump from negotiating with Iran as best as they can
Unless something changes in the next couple of weeks Iran is winning just by holding their position
For people who need a zero-BS geopolitical recap, here is the current chess board as it stands
* The Strait of Hormuz is closed to US allies, critically Japan, India and SK
* There is a finite amount of time before strategic oil reserves run out in those countries and shortages start for every industry downstream of oil, including food. Oil prices rising also affects every country for the same reason
* Iran has mostly survived the assault against them and has the ability to strike naval craft within 500m of them reliably with their drones and missiles. This keeps tankers and the USN unable to get through the Strait
* Trump is running out of viable moves to open it. The MEU being sent now arrives in about 1.5 weeks and will attempt to capture Kharg island to reduce Iran's ability to sell oil, which accounts for almost all their revenue due to sanctions. This would cripple the IRGC
* If it fails there are only two escalation paths - boots on the ground on the mainland, or nukes. Neither is politically viable. Doing nothing is also politically non-viable as midterms approach
* Third option is concessions to Iran, manipulated domestically to look like Iranian surrender. Look for Iran to receive any of the following: Lifted sanctions, withdrawal from US bases, unfreezing assets, oil sold in non-USD
* Lastly, Israel is the wild card. Without US protection they will get destroyed by a combined Iran/Lebanon (and possibly Egypt). They will prevent Trump from negotiating with Iran as best as they can
Unless something changes in the next couple of weeks Iran is winning just by holding their position
Supposedly, India and Turkey were also granted safe passage. Won't be surprised if they will be willing to "help" just like they facilitated Russian trade. For a commission, of course.