Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
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China will be a big loser as it stands, transit through the Strait of Hormuz is down by 90 percent which is practically a full on blockade - dug in coastal batteries in the Macran Mountains are targeting the few vessels that are still trying to sneak through. China's resource stricken fate is once again turning into a handicap, Beijing had to wiggle between keeping the ayatollahs from tumbling over and telling the ayatollahs to not close the Strait even though the ayatollahs correctly assessed a closure as their ace card from tumbling over. Beijing apparently does not have the leverage it thought it had because Tehran just moved against Xi's warning and now all the CCP aligned media are out damage controlling, Strait of Hormuz never really mattered anyway Russia and strategic oil reserves 'n shiii.
A few facts, China imports over 70 percent of its oil consumption aka 12- 13 bpd. Of those 12-13 barrels per day 80 percent comes from the Persian Gulf area and through the Strait of Hormuz. Per the internet China's strategic oil reserve is somewhere between 1.2 - 1.5 billion barrels, aka 100-120 days of net imports. China has been benefiting from the sanctioned status of both Russia and Iran through discount oil, and prefers a low oil price in general. Per addendum: several oil producing Gulf States have bypassing pipelines to circumnavigate the Strait, it's only Kuwait, Iraq and Iran that are fully cooked when the Strait remains closed.
Right. Current situation: Strait of Hormuz blocked, oil prices rising, Iranian oil unattainable, Venezuelan oil market lost, Gulf producers in trouble and Iran flying drones into oil infrastructure left and right. Also of importance: the US is the world's main oil producer, Trump just took over the Venezuelan oil industry, shale oil changed the game and Washington benefits from a higher oil price.
Guaranteed that Xi is trying to get through to whoever is currently wearing the top dog ayatollah turban. Not even ruling out that some of the IRGC leadership is doing this to finally get the Changs to commit to Iran's survival, it's a proper means of pressure. This situation is a big problem for Beijing.
I think you mean they import 12-13 million barrels a day, not 12-13.
I'm pretty sure it be rather difficult for China to have imported oil everyday for the last 2.73 million years.
Spain still has a Catholic soul, perhaps more so than the other two big Catholic countries in Europe, France and Italy.
Why would I want dirty Satan money?
The only thing I'll accept from them is repentance, good works and conversion to the faith of our God and Lord, Holy Jesus Christ, King of all!
I think the biggest issue is what percentage support an Islamist theocracy. I know it's a pretty large percentage, but there also plenty who are opposed to it and would like the freedom to live secular lives.
In 1979 Khomeni got a lot of support from Iranian liberals who thought the Shah was oppressive, and then they were shocked when strict Sharia law was imposed. If they had realized what was happening, Khomeni would have had a lot less support.
Even now I'd say the question of the current regime's survival depends entirely on the percentage of the population that will support them as they suppress the secular faction of society. I think the Iranian govt will have to suppress rebellion brutally, which tends to make even more turn against the govt.
My guess is that the current regime is skating on thin ice with the Iranian people at best.
Internally for a few year I have been hearing that the Iranian people have been leaving Islam and either converting to Christianity or becoming non religious secular people, Iv heard up to 50,000 mosques have closed down, how this impacts their military and loyalty to their Muslim government? I dont know? Maybe everyone in the military is Muslim only?
Even the people who are actually Muslim are mostly pretty moderate. My best guess is no more than 2 or 3 million people (out of 91 million) support the government in Iran. But out of the rest some people are hesitant to support the toppling of the government because they believe the country will be at risk of getting broken up by the Americans and secessionist forces if the regime collapses.
The Chinese are ecstatic over this war, they consider it a major blunder by the US which is going to destabilize their position in the Gulf. The Chinese are using Iran the same way the US/NATO tried to use Ukraine against Russia, as will Russia of course.
The Russians export 10M barrels per day and they're not even maxed out, China is getting just under half of that, but will get first dibs on the rest if needed, at the expense of India, Turkey etc. It will be interesting to see Modi and Erdo grovel to Putin.
The Russians are going to have a huge budget surplus with oil headed to $100, also with the GCC shutting down the production of LNG, aluminum, fertilizers, petrochemicals/plastics etc, Russia is heavily into all of these markets. Big win as well for other producers like Canada, a world leader in oil, fertilizers/potash and aluminum.
The current strategy of high volume indiscriminate bombings in dense urban areas is not just inhumane but also reckless and counterproductive. They are using Israeli Gaza AI bombing tactics, with results like the obliteration of the girls school near the strategic port city of Bandar Abas, which btw would be a prime target for a US land invasion. Massacring nearly 200 schoolgirls has turned any local regime skeptics into hardened supporters. They had around 150,000 mourners in the small town of Minab, pop. 73k, located an hour away from Bandar Abbas.
This guy is right.
Massive marches every night across Iran in support of the Islamic Republic.
MES predicts annihilation for any Kurdish offensive.
Members of the Iraqi Kurdistan Government have told CNN that they are scared of being drawn into the war, but feel unable to stand up to the US.
MES predicts annihilation for any Kurdish offensive.
Members of the Iraqi Kurdistan Government have told CNN that they are scared of being drawn into the war, but feel unable to stand up to the US.
A satellite image *may* show that Iran successfully hit an Arleigh-Burke-class destroyer of the US Navy causing a fire. Obviously, it is unverified at this point.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has claimed that the Spanish have agreed to cooperate with the US military.
Spain's Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, has immediately denied this, saying "Our position of "no to war" remains clear and forceful."
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has claimed that the Spanish have agreed to cooperate with the US military.
Spain's Foreign Minister, José Manuel Albares, has immediately denied this, saying "Our position of "no to war" remains clear and forceful."
I finally got the chance to talk to my Iranian colleague at work today. He was actually in Tehran visiting during the previous bombing.
He's pretty much a secular guy, but he likes the US and likes Christians. He came here for a better opportunity. He hates Israel and knows all about them.
He was joking that they know Iran better than any Iranian. Even though he hates Israel he likes what is happening in Iran - that all the leaders are being taken out. He says most Iranians feel the same. He realizes that the world/life he benefits from is pretty much dictated by Israel and the jews but is just taking the pragmatic approach. He actually still likes Trump quite a bit. He also said what can he do but laugh.
He's pretty much a secular guy, but he likes the US and likes Christians. He came here for a better opportunity. He hates Israel and knows all about them.
He was joking that they know Iran better than any Iranian. Even though he hates Israel he likes what is happening in Iran - that all the leaders are being taken out. He says most Iranians feel the same. He realizes that the world/life he benefits from is pretty much dictated by Israel and the jews but is just taking the pragmatic approach. He actually still likes Trump quite a bit. He also said what can he do but laugh.
Spain is governed by a leftist socialist government which means their tendency is going to be siding with third world anti-US interests. This explains their current stace on the war more than any sort of 'Catholic soul'. The current prime minister is an atheist socialist.
I attended the ITB, the largest tourism conference in the world today, and Israel, despite the place being packed and them having a huge station, looked like this
It was a very stressful event, but seeing that made me laugh a little bit.
It was a very stressful event, but seeing that made me laugh a little bit.
For their own sakes, I hope Russia and China are covertly supporting Iran.
But are they? I am doubtful.