Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread


They're pulling the Syria playbook, chaos, balkanization etc. with the minorities (Kurds, Azeris, Baluchs) being armed and funded to splinter the country. This is the extension to Iran of the Israeli 1982 Oded Yinon Plan to balkanize their neighbors.

Sure enough:


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I don't think it's going to work, this will rally the Persian base with the mullahs, as do the bombings on dense urban areas. I agree with this guy's take and his concept of escalatory trap, good 2min presentation:

 
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Have you been? I haven't myself but I have family who is regularly there for business, my cousin is always saying the place makes Vegas look noble and authentic.
I haven’t been either but I have family that have visited. They say it’s a mix of strict religious locals and some highly degenerate foreigners.
 
CNN also reporting that Kurds are being equipped for a potential land attack

If this news is true DC will attempt to take advantage of Iran's already existing rebel movements in Balochistan, Kurdistan and possibly Khuzestan. These areas are all ethnic minorities, twe former two Sunni. If these reports are true then Washington will attempt to create safe zones within Iran Idlib-style to create a funnel into the country for further wear and tear. Note how yesterday heavy airstrikes targeted police and border customs facilities in Iranian Kurdistan. DC has a strong position and can run ratlines from Iraqi Kurdistan and possibly Pakistan/ Persian Gulf. A decision to mobilize the Kurds will not be liked by Erdogan though.

IRGC in the last 24 hours has targeted several Iranian opposition groups, both military and political, on Iraqi soil.

 
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They're pulling the Syria playbook, chaos, balkanization etc. with the minorities (Kurds, Azeris, Baluchs) being armed and funded to splinter the country. This is the extension to Iran of the Israeli 1982 Oded Yinon Plan to balkanize their neighbors.
As I said the other day, this is the only strategy that can even hope to work in this situation, and the only one that makes any sense at all. The U.S. and Israel need to eliminate as much of the country's existing ruling class as possible, degrade the ability of its institutions of operate, and severely damage its physical infrastructure. Basically they need to just completely wreck the place, the hope then being that chaos will erupt and soon give way to rival factions vying for power.

Interestingly, Iran's strategy to attack the GCC countries rather than focusing all of its retaliation on Israel may end up backfiring spectacularly. If a GCC military coalition is motivated enough to intervene, they very well could end up being the boots on the ground that the U.S. and Israel desperately need. If what's left of Iran's ruling class and military hierarchy are forced to confront GCC armies on the ground, they will not only face serious challenges there, but will obviously remain vulnerable to continued targeted attacks from the air. Given the frightening degree of accuracy of guided missiles and drones these days, any sort of protracted warfare will quickly deplete the Iranian leadership pool. We're talking the equivalent of an NFL team not only losing it's starting QB and backup, but its third stringer as well, along with several guys from the practice squad and free agency. Eventually they're desperate enough to call in some total unknown from a Division III school who went undrafted and is currently teaching P.E. in Des Moines. It's gonna be tough to win a Super Bowl with that guy as your quarterback (although not unprecedented!), and it will be equally tough for Iran to win a war with the equivalent level of talent and experience running its military and government.
 
Several European countries are sending additional deployments to protect Cyprus+ their assets in the Gulf. Macron stated that the French aircraft carrier de Gaulle will be deployed in the region and will arrive in about a week + a frigate which is already near Cyprus, Greece is deploying several frigates. The Royal Navy is dispatching an air defence destroyer





 
Interestingly, Iran's strategy to attack the GCC countries rather than focusing all of its retaliation on Israel may end up backfiring spectacularly. If a GCC military coalition is motivated enough to intervene, they very well could end up being the boots on the ground that the U.S. and Israel desperately need.
Um, maybe I'm overthinking it, but if a coalition does happen, doesn't that take away Trump's option of just calling it a day and pulling out?

Since that would risk snubbing several US allies in the region?

Doesn't that seem a bit odd? That not only would they have data on CIA operative locations, but that they'd hit enough countries to risk turning multiple nations against them?
 
Um, maybe I'm overthinking it, but if a coalition does happen, doesn't that take away Trump's option of just calling it a day and pulling out?
Yes, to a degree at least. Although the U.S. could still provide a great deal of support to GCC armies. Imagine a Middle-Eastern version of Ukraine, except the U.S. and Israel are still bringing to bear air and sea power. If the U.S. is not absorbing significant casualties, and feels like there is a real chance of gaining decisive victory via a GCC ground invasion, there's no way they will pull out entirely.
 
Um, maybe I'm overthinking it, but if a coalition does happen, doesn't that take away Trump's option of just calling it a day and pulling out?

Since that would risk snubbing several US allies in the region?

Doesn't that seem a bit odd? That not only would they have data on CIA operative locations, but that they'd hit enough countries to risk turning multiple nations against them?
GCC states are not military powerhouses, and retaliation would be symbolic and centered around air strikes. GCC states instead project power through hydrocarbon leverage, money politics and foreign mercenaries. The Saudis are by far the largest Gulf military on paper but their Yemen debacle showed how weak and vulnerable their army actually is. GCC participation in the air campaign would definitely give the US/Israel a legitimacy boost though.

A proper analogy as to how GCC states view militaries is as to how they perceive football. It's a status symbol and they want immediate success. So instead of setting up proper infrastructure, esprit de corps and military institutions they buy all this hyper-expensive equipment without much deeper understanding, exactly like how Saudi clubs are currently poaching top tier footballers for exorbitant salaries. Yet the Saudi League hasn't improved much and at the end of the contract the players walk out of 100 million USD richer and nothing has really changed.

As said, a GCC retaliation would mean a legitimacy boost for especially Trump. The US likes to build grand coalitions for its military adventures. Ergo a GCC entry for Trump would mean that he can sell his Team's assessment as correct, even though in terms of actual relevance the Gulfies contribution will be low.
 
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The amount of BS coming out of Trump at this press meeting is astonishing.













He's got issue with Spain (like I've suggested before) because of the Straight of Gibraltar.

*For someone who doesn't drink he sure does sound drunk in those clips.
 
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