Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread


They're pulling the Syria playbook, chaos, balkanization etc. with the minorities (Kurds, Azeris, Baluchs) being armed and funded to splinter the country. This is the extension to Iran of the Israeli 1982 Oded Yinon Plan to balkanize their neighbors.

Sure enough:


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I don't think it's going to work, this will rally the Persian base with the mullahs, as do the bombings on dense urban areas. I agree with this guy's take and his concept of escalatory trap, good 2min presentation:

 
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That is true but still I have a lot of respect for the rulers of Dubai who built a somewhat prosperous country where there was only desert 50 years ago.

Have you been? I haven't myself but I have family who is regularly there for business, my cousin is always saying the place makes Vegas look noble and authentic.
 
Have you been? I haven't myself but I have family who is regularly there for business, my cousin is always saying the place makes Vegas look noble and authentic.
I haven’t been either but I have family that have visited. They say it’s a mix of strict religious locals and some highly degenerate foreigners.
 
CNN also reporting that Kurds are being equipped for a potential land attack

If this news is true DC will attempt to take advantage of Iran's already existing rebel movements in Balochistan, Kurdistan and possibly Khuzestan. These areas are all ethnic minorities, twe former two Sunni. If these reports are true then Washington will attempt to create safe zones within Iran Idlib-style to create a funnel into the country for further wear and tear. Note how yesterday heavy airstrikes targeted police and border customs facilities in Iranian Kurdistan. DC has a strong position and can run ratlines from Iraqi Kurdistan and possibly Pakistan/ Persian Gulf. A decision to mobilize the Kurds will not be liked by Erdogan though.

IRGC in the last 24 hours has targeted several Iranian opposition groups, both military and political, on Iraqi soil.

 
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They're pulling the Syria playbook, chaos, balkanization etc. with the minorities (Kurds, Azeris, Baluchs) being armed and funded to splinter the country. This is the extension to Iran of the Israeli 1982 Oded Yinon Plan to balkanize their neighbors.
As I said the other day, this is the only strategy that can even hope to work in this situation, and the only one that makes any sense at all. The U.S. and Israel need to eliminate as much of the country's existing ruling class as possible, degrade the ability of its institutions of operate, and severely damage its physical infrastructure. Basically they need to just completely wreck the place, the hope then being that chaos will erupt and soon give way to rival factions vying for power.

Interestingly, Iran's strategy to attack the GCC countries rather than focusing all of its retaliation on Israel may end up backfiring spectacularly. If a GCC military coalition is motivated enough to intervene, they very well could end up being the boots on the ground that the U.S. and Israel desperately need. If what's left of Iran's ruling class and military hierarchy are forced to confront GCC armies on the ground, they will not only face serious challenges there, but will obviously remain vulnerable to continued targeted attacks from the air. Given the frightening degree of accuracy of guided missiles and drones these days, any sort of protracted warfare will quickly deplete the Iranian leadership pool. We're talking the equivalent of an NFL team not only losing it's starting QB and backup, but its third stringer as well, along with several guys from the practice squad and free agency. Eventually they're desperate enough to call in some total unknown from a Division III school who went undrafted and is currently teaching P.E. in Des Moines. It's gonna be tough to win a Super Bowl with that guy as you quarterback (although not unprecedented!), and it will be equally tough for Iran to win a war with the equivalent level of talent and experience running its military and government.
 
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