Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread



Iran/USA/Switzerland – Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that Tehran and Washington have reached an understanding on the core principles during today’s nuclear talks in Geneva.He described the discussions as showing clear progress compared to the previous round, with a notably constructive atmosphere and serious exchanges of views.Araghchi stated:There have been good developments compared to the last round. Both sides will now begin working on potential agreement documents and exchange them. This does not mean an agreement is imminent, but the path forward has begun.Compared to the previous session, we had very serious discussions in a constructive environment where we openly shared our positions. Some ideas were discussed, leading to agreement on several main principles. Based on those principles, we will eventually draft a document… We remain hopeful that we can achieve this.Naturally, once we enter the stage of drafting an actual document, the process will slow down.”
 
Khamenei could be taunting about IRGC philsihing / social engineering email back in 2022 of those in Trump & Bidens Administration including John Bolton.



"After infiltrating the person’s email account, the hackers sent what seemed like a harmless request to a group of fellow US-based Iran hawks, asking them to review a supposed book the person was writing about Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs.
“I am close to finishing the manuscript and have begun asking experts like yourselves to review the chapters,” read the email from June 2022, a copy of which was obtained by CNN.
The email encouraged the half-dozen recipients to click a link that promised to take them to the supposed manuscript. Instead, it contained malicious code that would have granted the hackers unfettered access to the targets’ computers."


 
Tell us LaNegra, how is the weather in Tel Aviv today?


Bad faith and bad arguments thrive in closed loops because nothing ever has to be tested. Hence Lil Coop is trying to make his fav echochamber bulletproof, only the truest believers of turdworldism allowed. Unfortunately none of the man's ideas can and have survived even superficial contact with opposite takes. None of the babble is persuasive, it’s performative instead and designed to keep the herd from straying. That’s why in general anyone should be adviced to engage outside the bubble to see whether one's ideas hold up.

Long story short, Lil Coop's clearly don't. The cope cycle is back at square 1 which means boastful rhetorics, morale pumping slop'news', (empty) threats and trajectories and of course a little purity spiraling and 'Othering' here and there. Although one has to admit that the vibe is a bit different this time around, it's as if the thirdy clique deep down realizes that the biggest US naval build up since the 2003 Iraqi War and DC's demands on the removal of the few deterrents Tehran has left means that the Iranians ackshually weren't winning all along.
 
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US electric and kinetic tech is so far ahead of Iran's it might as well be considered alien to the turbans. In the case of an attack you'll have hundreds of jets over Iranian skies, everything jammed to hell. Iranians'll be blind and taking in the first attack waves before they even realize it, kind of like what happened in Venezuela and Iran before.

During the June 2025 War Israel dismantled Iran's AD systems in 24 hours and achieved air superiority on Day 1. That was with a rather limited number of air frames, and with need to refuel mid-air due to excessive distance, Israeli hard power projection is a fraction of Washington's arsenal. US won't have any of those limitations, jesters who have been trashing the US military for years suddenly look less certain about their convictions already. No crying in the casino though, US negotiation demands were not excessive until about 1 month ago, and there are tons of Israeli regional adversaries within DC's patronage/alliance system yet the ayatollahs wanted to continue the LARP right till the very end.

In the case of a US attack the priority targets will be Iran's military industrial capabilities, aka its ballistic missile program and nuclear stockpile which got carted out before Fardow got reduced to rubble. Any talk on regime change is for now preliminary yet remains the end goal as releasing Iran of its deterrents and power projection abroad will ultimately lead to that goal.
 
Iran might have some Chinese DF-21 anti-ship hypersonic missiles, in which case any ship within 2,000km of their shores is at high risk of being hit. This might be what he is referring to here.


The aggression on Iran is as much a precursive move on China as it is play in the Middle East. The Changs have for decades attempted to make their hydrocarbon lifeline sanction proof by rerouting supply lines, following a strategy of diversification and ultimately building on non-compromised states to secure a steady and reliable supply of oil in case of a calamity around Taiwan. The US turning Venezuela and building up pressure on Iran for a knock out punch further down the line means Beijing's long term strategy is in danger.
 
US electric and kinetic tech is so far ahead of Iran's it might as well be considered alien to the turbans. In the case of an attack you'll have hundreds of jets over Iranian skies, everything jammed to hell. Iranians'll be blind and taking in the first attack waves before they even realize it, kind of like what happened in Venezuela and Iran before.

During the June 2025 War Israel dismantled Iran's AD systems in 24 hours and achieved air superiority on Day 1. That was with a rather limited number of air frames, and with need to refuel mid-air due to excessive distance, Israeli hard power projection is a fraction of Washington's arsenal. US won't have any of those limitations, jesters who have been trashing the US military for years suddenly look less certain about their convictions already. No crying in the casino though, US negotiation demands were not excessive until about 1 month ago, and there are tons of Israeli regional adversaries within DC's patronage/alliance system yet the ayatollahs wanted to continue the LARP right till the very end.

In the case of a US attack the priority targets will be Iran's military industrial capabilities, aka its ballistic missile program and nuclear stockpile which got carted out before Fardow got reduced to rubble. Any talk on regime change is for now preliminary yet remains the end goal as releasing Iran of its deterrents and power projection abroad will ultimately lead to that goal.
I guess we are about to find out. You better hope you are right, because if you are wrong, the entire USA will likely collapse due to the economic crash that will soon follow.
 
I guess we are about to find out. You better hope you are right, because if you are wrong, the entire USA will likely collapse due to the economic crash that will soon follow.
US is only capable to do hit and run tactics, the Iraq era invasion is no longer feasible. US will not win this war. I expect a failure and collapse. If that happens it would mean God was merciful and punched ZOG in the gut. It will mean pain but also cleansing.
 
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Geopolitics is zero sum and game theory, noone beats the Israelis (and Americans) in this field. This is ultimately why every supposed coinflip falls Tel Aviv's way, and why with every bout Israel's position strengthens whilst Iran's weakens. It's late already. The Iranians are backed up against a wall and any further concessions - in this case its deterrents, would mean the de facto demilitarization of the regime. The endgame really does feel close. Consider it a game of chess where achieving a checkmate requires advanced plays, thinking ahead and compounding strategies.

Post October 7, 2023 Israel has systemically stripped Iran naked and picked it apart. Notice how with every confrontation the core issue discussed moved towards Tehran's final position. The latest round was 8 months ago during which Israel launched a successful surprise attack to set in motion the trail of dominoes that would eventually lead to the destruction of Iran's nuclear production program. Execution was flawless. And despite Cucker Tarlson and the rest of the clown cart warning about how this would be suicidal and end in thousands of dead US servicemembers, the B52 bombers flew in, did the job and the ayatollahs sat there and took it.

The June War in itself was only made possible due to Iran's collapse in the Middle East a year prior. The destruction of Tehran's proxy deterrence and its militias' defeats in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and to a lesser extent Iraq was the stepping stone for the June War just like the June War will be the stepping stone for what comes next. Unless Tehran can break this cycle it will ultimately perish. Especially the fall of Bashar paved the way for continuous Israeli aggression on and in Iran, this must be emphasized.

Now the pendulum has swung even further. After the June War and destruction of its 40 year old nuclear program, the Israelis and Americans want more, there's blood in the water. In the current negotiations the US+Israel want a ban on Iran restarting its program and a handover of the enriched uranium that was carted out beforehand. Even Iran's ballistic missile program is on the agenda. Ergo Israel will not stop until Iran has been turned into a castrated Treaty of Versailles tier German state. And at some point Tehran will have to stand up and initiate yet they are weak and there's noone who backs them up. Also note that any Iranian concessions will make it even easier for Israel to tip over the Islamic Republic anyway a bit down the line.

Game theory. It's really simple. Israel has achieved a string of victories and with each of them Tel Aviv's confidence grew and realization of Iran's internal weakness and limited power projection became stronger. Building on that conviction and track record Washington is currently negotiating the total removal of the Iranian nuclear deterrent, much like Bashar was relieved of his biological weapon program in 2012 in a Russian-American-Israeli one up. And remember, if you're constantly taking them on the chin whilst ceding ground withdrawing towards your castle you are, in fact, losing.
The reality is on the ground Iran has a formidable military. Bombing and sanctioning Iran is one thing. A full scale boots on the ground invasion of Iran is another thing entirely. Invading Iran is nothing like invading Iraq or Afghanistan. If it happens expect huge casualties for the invaders something like the casualty rates of Vietnam. If a ground invasion where to occur the war would stretch out for many years and casualties would be huge.
 
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