Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

So far I see Israel waging a successful military campaign.

The conclusions I'm coming to:
  • $500 quadcopters and trench battles are not the future of warfare as is claimed due to the Ukraine war.
  • America and allies are the only ones that seem to be learning from the Ukraine war, operations are more streamlined and advanced.
  • This war reflects poorly on Russia as expected.
  • Looks like the Biden administration was holding back Ukraine in regards to special ops.
There's going to be a domino effect here, we might get to China sooner than expected, although it's not clear to me what a war with China would be about; fishing rights? cold war 2.0? a Palpatine and Galactic Empire situation after the collapse of Russia?
Israel cannot win this on their own. Israel's only hope is the USA can bail them out, either striking a deal with Iran or going on the offense.

Israel didn't beg for help after 36 hours because they were winning. And this cannot be kept up, much less production of the air defense system weapons.

 
So far I see Israel waging a successful military campaign.

The conclusions I'm coming to:
  • $500 quadcopters and trench battles are not the future of warfare as is claimed due to the Ukraine war.
  • America and allies are the only ones that seem to be learning from the Ukraine war, operations are more streamlined and advanced.
  • This war reflects poorly on Russia as expected.
  • Looks like the Biden administration was holding back Ukraine in regards to special ops.
There's going to be a domino effect here, we might get to China sooner than expected, although it's not clear to me what a war with China would be about; fishing rights? cold war 2.0? a Palpatine and Galactic Empire situation after the collapse of Russia?

They're not using tanks, artillery or even rifles either. Doesn't mean they're obsolete. It's just a different kind of conflict - there's something like 1000km between Iran and Israel and their armies won't ever come into contact with each other. The only way for them to inflict damage on each other is through long range strikes.
 
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True when one side is vastly technologically superior to the other.
Iran's problems are not purely technological, they're structural. It took them 6 days to score a first Israeli UCAV, while Houthis - who get hand me down tech from Iran - were able to shoot down Reaper drones like ducks. It's because after Israel killed Iranian top commanders, their C3 (command, control, communication) collapsed.
 
It's not costing them $285 million/day, it's costing us. And much more than that, because both the US Air Force and the Navy are actively engaging Iranian missiles and drones.
Correct yes. My point is that Israel can't keep this up forever. Their only potential win is regime change, which they could possibly achieve, but the longer it goes on, it will be tougher for them. Eventually the USA will have to step in, either forcing a deal or going on the offense.
 
He was speaking in future tense. This is still the beginning of this active conflict and it could go either way depending on a number of factors. He might not have it figured out but neither do you or anyone else here. I see nothing bannable or against the forum rules for anyone making commentary on a volatile active situation that is changing by the minute.

This thread is full of speculation and blurry & repeated night videos of mostly untraceable origin. We're all posting in the fog of war.

We have two threads for discussing the rules and their application:



Stay on topic
 
Israel cannot win this on their own. Israel's only hope is the USA can bail them out, either striking a deal with Iran or going on the offense.

Israel didn't beg for help after 36 hours because they were winning. And this cannot be kept up, much less production of the air defense system weapons.


Jews are on their own?
Jews have to hope?
What deal?

The Jews want American involvement because the Jews are not the sacrificial type. They're going talk Netanyahu's ear off for every damaged banana stand.

They're not using tanks, artillery or even rifles either. Doesn't mean they're obsolete. It's just a different kind of conflict - there's something like 1000km between Iran and Israel and their armies won't ever come into contact wit each other. The only way for them to inflict damage on each other is through long range strikes.

This would be true if the strikes had no strategic objective. The Jewish strikes have strategic objective. This is the reason that in the beginning people used to get excited about Russia launching a satellite, hitting supposed bunkers [intel], new drones, new missiles, red line being crossed and new tech. Instead Russia, like Iran used their special forces, Donbass partisans and then patriotic volunteers [in that order] as the vanguard to be slaughtered while claiming that their missiles and AD is their true strategic deterrent. At the very least they could have invested in finally making these "autonomous drone swarms" a reality. I guess in Putin's retarded head, once Ukraine surrenders to Russia, they will unveil some prototype at an expo for all the Russian boomers to marvel at. Do as little as possible for maximum effect controlled opp strategy.

What we find now is that these missiles and AD are not much of a deterrent, and destroying the human capital is what is of interest for the Jews.
 
So far I see Israel waging a successful military campaign.

The conclusions I'm coming to:
  • $500 quadcopters and trench battles are not the future of warfare as is claimed due to the Ukraine war.
  • America and allies are the only ones that seem to be learning from the Ukraine war, operations are more streamlined and advanced.
  • This war reflects poorly on Russia as expected.
  • Looks like the Biden administration was holding back Ukraine in regards to special ops.
There's going to be a domino effect here, we might get to China sooner than expected, although it's not clear to me what a war with China would be about; fishing rights? cold war 2.0? a Palpatine and Galactic Empire situation after the collapse of Russia?
The chicken pen has died down considerably and reality is starting to creep in. At least it were 3 days full of excitement and adrenaline pumps, if you'd lock yourself up in the echochamber that is the Iran Thread on CIK you might have actually believe that Iran had the upper hand.

That was all fantasyland though. Israel established aerial supremacy on Day 1, and that was the end of the story. Ever since it's been a turkey shoot on Iranian soil, Israel is striking everywhere, at any time, and with impunity. The Israelis have moved their goalposts from destroying Iran's nuclear facilities to plunging the country into societal collapse through knocking out the critical infrastructure and therefor shaking the ayatollahs grip on power at the foothold. Aka regime change.

From my limited view energy outages in Tehran are getting common, fuel is becoming scarce and ATMs aren't working half the time. Internet is spotty, although the latter could be related to Iran's decision to nationalize the internet. The Israelis have started targeting the hydrocarbon infrastructure and half the ministeries are in rubble. It's looking bad.
 
This would be true if the strikes had no strategic objective. The Jewish strikes have strategic objective. This is the reason that in the beginning people used to get excited about Russia launching a satellite, hitting supposed bunkers [intel], new drones, new missiles, red line being crossed and new tech. Instead Russia, like Iran used their special forces, Donbass partisans and then patriotic volunteers [in that order] as the vanguard to be slaughtered while claiming that their missiles and AD is their true strategic deterrent. At the very least they could have invested in finally making these "autonomous drone swarms" a reality. I guess in Putin's retarded head, once Ukraine surrenders to Russia, they will unveil some prototype at an expo for all the Russian boomers to marvel at. Do as little as possible for maximum effect controlled opp strategy.

What we find now is that these missiles and AD are not much of a deterrent, and destroying the human capital is what is of interest for the Jews.

I think that the war in Ukraine is generally rooted in Putin's unwillingness to recognize geopolitical realities - there wouldn't be any mess if Russia intervened during the 2014 coup, they didn't because he believed that building economic ties with the west will guarantee peace. But to the topic, a war like that in Ukraine is an exception not the rule for what future conflicts may bring, a hypothetical US vs China will look more like what we're seeing now in the middle east - long range fires exchange, coupled with asymmetrical attacks on strategic assets/leadership, not grunts fighting in the mud.
As for the strategic value of Israel-Iran strikes, the jews know what they're doing. Meanwhile Iran is still somewhat stuck in the usual for the region, but no longer valid, tit for tat mentality.
 
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Well, the trash talking is good at least. We will see if they follow through.


Biggest nothingburger of the century and a symbol of the Iranian BS mentality. Forget the Pakistani scamartist relaying the message, actual high level Iranian officials promised a happening of epic proportions, then shot ~30 ballistics at Israel, of which a few hit peripheral structures (0 casualties), after which the ayatollah friendly media immediately switched onto the next morale booster aka megalomaniac threat without ever mentioning this statement again.

This whole thing is starting to feel like the Hezbollah war but then several times bigger in scope. Israel is dishing out left-rights on the fly effectively battering its opponents, the Iranians respond with smacktalking and wild and ineffective haymakers mostly punching air in the process.
 
The Iranian government is working hard to root out the Mossad cells that are conducting drone/ATGM attacks in Iran. Multiple arrests have been made and more are on the way.

Thanks bucko, after last week I was about to lose faith in Iran's counterintelligence agencies' capacities but after reading this it's back to Believing. The turbanboys got this and anyone doubting the coming Total Victory is a defeatist who is probably on the Hasbara payroll anyway.

For the those that can't pick up on sarcasm, it's sarcasm. Feelgood stories, whether real, intentionally de-contextualized or outright manufactured, will continue to get spammed until morale across all social media infowar battlefields improves. The Iranians are so bad at (counter) intelligence game, it's embarrassing. Currently the only counterintelligence tactic the Iranians seem to have is to simply rush to the crime scene whenever the next IRGC bigwig gets whacked or critical infrastructural project gets blown up, and hope for a pants down moment. Ergo if the Mossadniks are still around nab them, and if they aren't just wait for the next whackjob and hope for the best.

It's really bad. And the stories just keep on coming. Mossad literally shipped in the vital components for a drone factory, then assembled the drone factory in one of Tehran's suburbs, then started mass producing drones in Iran, followed this up by preparing dozens of trucks with special drone compartments, then drove the trucks towards dozens of vital military installations, destroyed those installations simultaneously, and then on top of that had other Mossad cells simultaneously cap the entire IRGC top brass + nuclear scientist corps through ATGM Spike missile attacks (also smuggled into the Iran) and remotely controlled bombs.

Even worse, three days after this debacle the Israelis simply repeated previous stunt by simultaneously boobytrapping and carbombing the few remaining nuclear scientists, have Mossad cells ATGM striking some more IRGC top dogs, and then setting of another 15+ car bombs throughout Tehran.

It just doesn't stop and Iranian counterintelligence continues to be comically bad. Yesterday the newly appointed Iranian Chief of Staff Ali Shadmani got capped, he had been on his new post for only 3 days. His predecessor, Alam Ali Rashid, was eliminated just 4 days ago



Israel is selling several on the ground drone attacks as air strikes to sell the idea that they can penetrate Iranian airspace with impunity.

I'd like two scoops of extra potent copium in my copetea too please. Just today 100+ airstrikes were recorded in Tehran alone, it's a free for all turkey shoot and aside from ineffectual CRAM the Iranians don't seem to have any functional AD systems left. The Israelis can fly in, shoot their missiles, and return to base unbothered. Impunity is the word indeed.

This seems to not be the case and the Israeli airforce appears to continue carrying only standoff strikes from Syrian and Iraqi airspace.

Weird frame, as if strikes originating from Iraqi airspace don't count. The Iranian AD umbrella was designed to counter any threat and that includes incoming enemy planes flying above and missiles fired from neutral soil. The Iranians fail miserably despite whatever cope-angle you look at it. So far there hasn't been proof of a single Israeli strike getting neutralized or plane being deterred. Iran managed to shoot down 2-3 drones and that's the score so far.

As for the technicalities, strikes are mostly launched from Iraqi territory because the maximum reach of the F35/F16 is ~1250 km. That's pushing it when it comes to attacking Iranian targets, ergo why refueling tankers are working around the clock over Jordanian and Syrian airspace, and why some of the Israeli F35 fighters take off with external fuel tanks strapped to them.

 
Feelgood stories, whether real, intentionally de-contextualized or outright manufactured, will continue to get spammed until morale across all social media infowar battlefields improves.

There is no group doing this spamming, it's just that hatred of Israel is so high, people are wishfully posting stories of Israel losing. Lies get the most clicks, which is why social media is generally garbage nowadays.

Iran is getting pummeled but it's a huge country with 100m people. A lot of different outcomes are possible.
 
IF true, then Iran may have a wider range of targets they can hit than we realized. Also, if true, Russia cannot afford to let Iran fall and this technology to fall into the hands of the USA while in a war in Ukraine.

 
The missile seems to have them shook, I am guessing our intelligence agency was not aware of this technology or did not have correct intel on it. Emergency meeting in Israel afterwards.

Then they got hit with this.

 
I think a lot of people's fears are overblown.

At most the USA bombs Iran and destroys the nuclear facilities. Iran hits back and the USA strikes a lot of military targets like they did in Yemen. Tens of thousands will die, a few hundred of American soldiers will die as well, and then eventually Iran fizzles out and it's all over by the end of the year.

That’s what I think Trump is considering, whether he can just bomb the Fordow facility with B-2s and then call it quits, kind of like he did with bombing Solemani.

I understand it’s not a one-and-done kind of operation, though. It would take multiple hits with penetrators to reach that deep. One also has to think Iran could be secretly saving some good Russian air defense around that place.

Personally, I hope he does nothing and Israel just has to suck it up. They started it and should send suicide commandos to blow it up.
 
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