Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

Joost said:
. But seems like there are talks about Micro Strategy (MSTR) accumulation-risk, forcing them to suffer a margin-call in case price goes under certain amount.
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Actually no. ALL of Strategy's BTC is unencumbered. There cannot be a margin call on it.

As far as accumulation risk: I think "plebs" have bought as much as they can. Only 0.1% of the population is capable of comprehending bitcoin. 99.9% of people will not be self sovereign bitcoiners, nor will it matter much to them.

Companies, Institutions, Banks, and Nation states will buy the remaining bitcoin, NOT individuals....the supply of individuals capable of understanding it has been exhausted.

Just as most people think of their fiat derivative fractional reserve rehypothecated federal reserve notes as "money", they will be completely unaware of the bitcoin backed money that takes over. I believe it will be a volatility stripped derivative of bitcoin like Strategy's STRC. Not forever, but during the transition period from a fiat standard to a bitcoin standard.
 
Judoka said:
Smart.

I think if you were to put money into Bitcoin then you need to have 100% conviction like chance vought. It's either all-in or nothing. Either Bitcoin will be the new monetary standard or it will be worthless. If you trade it short-term then you are likely to lose money.

Personally I think Bitcoin is garbage but I follow the price moves because I am fascinated by the crypto markets.
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I think allocation should match conviction.

If there is a 1% chance I am right...shouldn't you have a 1% allocation?
 
chance vought said:
I think allocation should match conviction.

If there is a 1% chance I am right...shouldn't you have a 1% allocation?
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I think crypto is different. We are talking about a speculative, non-income producing asset. The true-believers like yourself don't believe it's a speculation but rather the future of money. And that's my main point when I said it's all or nothing.

If you aren't 100% convinced about Bitcoin then the Bitcoiners would tell you to do more research. On the Bitcoin subreddit it seems like the majority of members have an investment portfolio of at least 50% Bitcoin. Many of those members are essentially all-in.

I suppose it's possible to have a smaller allocation but those people would likely sell at the first downturn.
 
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chance vought said:
Companies, Institutions, Banks, and Nation states will buy the remaining bitcoin, NOT individuals....the supply of individuals capable of understanding it has been exhausted.
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Indeed. Most practically have been priced out anyway, because they self sabotage in their thoughts.

The truth is, the mark has to come and fool many, and that also means many people are generally incapable of understanding certain things, and still others truly don't want to (they lack wisdom and other gifts). It already has (cov shot). When the dookie hits the fan, the control grid and programmable features will come full circle to start the majorly restrictive surveillance state. People will dislike that, but there won't be much for them to do since they let the false god and doting mother government take care of so much, for so long. Just for their pockets personally, or for their feelings about being a "good person" or neighbor by suggesting you can be good in supporting violence to take money from some and give to others.

It'll also be somewhat comedic when as cash continues to vanish, it'll also be debased so much that the bills/physical cash that people may have even been "mattressed" will be fairly useless in purchasing power because they won't be high enough denominations to matter. Another win for BTC.
 
Blade Runner said:
Another win for BTC.
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Bitcoin is dead. Bottom dropping out below 73K today. All forecasts wrong. Bitcoin Bros have no idea what they're talking about and freely admit that nobody understands it. This is a feature, not a bug. Occams Razor applies, the simplest explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be true. Bitcoin is a scam because it cannot be easily explained.

Get out now, you've already lost 53K per coin since October, if you would have listened to me in January 2025 and cashed out you'd be up 27K per coin right now and you wouldn't be in this situation of sleepless nights that you are currently experiencing. You're a gambling addict with no exit strategy. You did this to yourself. I forgive you.

1/6/25:
PurpleUrkel said:
Great, you hit 100K. Now what? Cash that shit in...
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PurpleUrkel said:
Bitcoin is dead. Bottom dropping out below 73K today. All forecasts wrong. Bitcoin Bros have no idea what they're talking about and freely admit that nobody understands it. This is a feature, not a bug. Occams Razor applies, the simplest explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be true. Bitcoin is a scam because it cannot be easily explained.

Get out now, you've already lost 53K per coin since October, if you would have listened to me in January 2025 and cashed out you'd be up 27K per coin right now and you wouldn't be in this situation of sleepless nights that you are currently experiencing. You're a gambling addict with no exit strategy. You did this to yourself. I forgive you.

1/6/25:
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death number 478? this might be it guys...


I won't be "cashing in" for slave shekels
 
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chance vought said:
death number 478? this might be it guys...


I won't be "cashing in" for slave shekels
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I think its going up. And if they raise the price high enough a lot of piglets will go all in and leverage even more. Theres probably models for this. Imagine the rape which will ensue if it reaches 200k. The FOMO and the dump. In the end big boys will get them all or enough so that it doesnt pose a threat to the system. But until they achieve it. Some money can be made. Not for me though.

People investing in btc must be prepared to lose a lot if they need the money and my guess is one day lose it all. But until then great speculative play.

I like rents. And real estate. The beauty of houses and refurbishment turning something ugly or in despair/ruins into something beautiful it really brings me joy. Sometimes I see a really ugly building and think about doing a crowdfunding and tear it down and make something beautiful not for money but for the pleasure of not having to look to ugly shit. Like people investing just for the sake of keeping the cities beautiful and not ugly communist modernism. Not for profit. Its something on my to do list (after kids leave our nest). Anyway I digress.
 
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PurpleUrkel said:
Bitcoin is dead.
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Add it to the list! Notice they don't say this when it's at ATH. Should we quote it in Q4 of this year or Q1 next year when we're at a NEW ATH, again? lol
PurpleUrkel said:
Bitcoin is a scam because it cannot be easily explained.
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This is among the best of your self evidently absurd comments. Thanks for the entertainment, Purple.

The reason I'll be wealthy and be able to help those that want it (most don't, don't want to listen, can't see where things are going) is precisely because I have conviction, don't let emotions shake me out, don't listen to the Schiffs of the world (or guys like you), and hold. It's like you don't understand that not only have you done this before, thousands have and said the same things, and were wrong every.single.time.

You do realize that this has happened for 16 years, right? Count them. Or does math not exist in that clown world you're living in? Does history? Verifiable past? This thread?
jlp-amazin.gif
 
magoo said:
I think its going up. And if they raise the price high enough a lot of piglets will go all in and leverage even more. Theres probably models for this. Imagine the rape which will ensue if it reaches 200k. The FOMO and the dump. In the end big boys will get them all or enough so that it doesnt pose a threat to the system. But until they achieve it. Some money can be made. Not for me though.
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Investors will be separated from their bitcoin and lose wealth. Savers will increase their bitcoin and their wealth.

Bitcoin isn't an investment because as is frequently pointed out as FUD: bitcoin has no 'cashflows' or 'returns' ...its not an investment, its an exit.
 
Back to Bitcoin price-gambling. Bought 100 shares of IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) @ $41. I might do more increments if it continues to go down. I don't plan on betting more than $10k.

I have some BTC in a wallet that I bought years ago and ran in a mixer (Wasabi).I don't plan on selling it yet since I can only do smaller amounts with Bisq.
 
Despite the recent drop I’m still up 73% from when I did a 1 time buy in 2021. Even if it drops to only a 20% gain overall, that is still negating inflation since 2021, diversifying from my cash and stocks. I still may cash it out sometime soon and do some home repairs that are badly needed and I’m a little cash poor at the moment.

People over complicate Bitcoin on here. You buy it for 3 reasons:
1). Hedge against fiat currency like precious metals in case of a total collapse

2). Hope for gains for either short/long term and then cash out and buys stuff

3). Hope for long term gains and the pass it on as an inheritance

Am I missing anything?
 
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