Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

From 12 days ago, Ben cowens is one of the better technical analysis chart readers , been very accurate the past couple years.



His explanation as to why we never saw an alt season. He says the 4 year cycle is still in tact. Expect alt coins to continue to bleed into bitcoin and bitcoin dominance to continue.

What he’s not saying? Retail may never enter and create an adult season because retail is broke. It seems like everyone I talk to is completely broke. Retail has no money to enter into crypto right now.
 
The law of supply and demand begs to differ -- if there was "no natural demand for it," its price would be $0. Instead it's the best-performing asset in history.
No one buys Bitcoin for any purpose except financial speculation, that's why there is no natural demand. It doesn't perform any practical function. The entire concept of "HODLing" is based on this idea: you hold on for dear life through the inevitable ups and downs because you believe the price will ultimately increase a great deal. You aren't holding on for any other purpose, nor are you getting any actual use out of the Bitcoin. You're just hoarding it.

Also, calling Bitcoin "the best performing asset in history" may technically be true, but only because it's original price in 2009 was essentially zero (imagine if you measured Apple, NVidia or Microsoft stock returns from an IPO price of zero dollars). There are also vanishingly few if any individuals who bought or mined Bitcoin in those early days who have been HODLing ever since. Most early Bitcoin holders understandably emptied their bags when the Bitcoin price was in three or four digits. If you look at Bitcoin's performance since 2017 (when it became mainstream and the year after which the vast majority of current HODLers obtained their Bitcoin) its price action has been impressive but nothing to write home about (many stocks have outperformed it). Certainly not in the realm of the "best performing asset in history".
It's currency. It's a store of value. It's digital/instantly transferrable. Uncensorable. Unconfiscatable. It literally does everything.
You may object to what I wrote above and say that Bitcoin has a function as a currency. This is true in theory, but in practice almost no one uses it for this purpose, and indeed the more ardent Bitcoin maxis explicitly argue against ever spending Bitcoin. And with the existence of Monero and stablecoins, what little use case Bitcoin had as a currency has completely disappeared. The utilization of the Lightning network has decreased drastically in recent years as a consequence of this fact.
I have a feeling 4 million US merchants instantly going live with the Square POS is going to change the game. When merchants realize they don't need to give 3% of every transaction to AMEX/Visa, you're going to see a lot of "Bitcoin Accepted Here!" stickers in store windows, and soon after that you'll see "ONLY Bitcoin Accepted Here" stickers. The "taxable event" crap will eventually get resolved in the USA, and until then Square is already offering full IRS-ready reports for every coffee or burger you use Bitcoin to buy.
This is cope. Bitcoin has zero future as a currency or means of payment, a fact which was recognized years ago, which is why maxis had to pivot toward the "store of value/fiat debasement" argument. If you go back and look at what Bitcoin proponents were saying previously, there was no mention of Bitcoin being a store of value whatsoever. It was all about how Bitcoin was a great currency and how everyone should use it for payments (Andreas Antonopoulos talked about paying his rent with Bitcoin. This was literally the predominant Bitcoin evangelist in the world at the time. Who do you hear advocating paying rent in Bitcoin today?)
But when the Bitcoin light bulb went off for me, it was equal parts "I can beat the S&P" and "this thing will save the world."
I'm glad that your Bitcoin speculation worked out for you, but if you find yourself tossing large amounts of money at investment because you're convinced it will "save the world", you should recognize that you've probably been consuming a large amount of propaganda.
Why would people begin to doubt it? Why would the belief begin to falter? I'm betting on the opposite. People will realize that Bitcoin only goes up relative to their shitty dollars.
A combination of diminishing returns as the asset matures, reduced security on the network as mining becomes less profitable, quantum threats, or the development of new and exciting alternative investment options. It's very important to keep in mind that Bitcoin is a fungible collectible token, and like all collectibles, it's only valuable if people agree it has value. This is in contrast to stocks and real estate, which produce cash flows. I don't need you to believe that 10,000 shares of Exxon-Mobil have value: the dividend checks speak for themselves. But what are 10,000 Bitcoin worth? Only what you can convince someone else to pay, and they'll only pay if they believe the next guy will pay even more.

The ultimate proof of Bitcoin's worthlessness is this: if you owned every Bitcoin in the world, what have you achieved? What are they worth? You have spreadsheet entries in a distributed database. *golf clap* Why should anyone care? You have no claim to any real world assets.

Now imagine you owned every share of all 500 companies in the S&P. You're literally a multi-trillionaire and basically own the world. See the difference?
 
Lightning was the nail in the coffin for alts. Once Lightning adoption hit critical mass after 2020. There is no legitimate argument for a use case for anything but bitcoin.
Not true. There are already stocks that have been tokenised onto the Solana blockchain. Those tokenised stocks can trade 24/7 with less than one second settlement time.

Also Jack Dorsey for his company Block will be using Solana rails for stable coin settlement. And he is a Bitcoin maxi so obviously for now he believes that Solana can do certain things better than Bitcoin.

“Yes, Square's parent company, Block, is integrating stablecoin payments into its
Cash App and plans to use the Solana network for its stablecoin transactions. This move is part of a broader strategy to expand crypto payment options beyond Bitcoin and aims to provide users with faster, cheaper transactions for everyday use. The service is expected to launch in early 2026 and will likely include stablecoins like USDC.“

That is the google search AI answer.
 
At best, it can theoretically serve as a store of value against fiat debasement. But given that this use case implies a much lower rate of growth/compounding as Bitcoin matures (one more in line with traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate), there is no reason to give credence to the sort of wild price predictions we hear from Bitcoin maxis.
This is a fundamental misunderstanding. If Bitcoin is a store of value it will have a low rate of growth/compounding once it reaches maturity but it is still very far from maturity. In the meantime in the next 10 years it will take store of value market share from equities, real estate, gold, collectibles, etc and hence will grow rapidly. Yes maybe in 15 or 20 years time when each bitcoin is multiple millions of dollars it will start to give similar returns to equities or gold or real estate etc. but that is still a long way into the future.
 
If Bitcoin is a store of value it will have a low rate of growth/compounding once it reaches maturity but it is still very far from maturity. In the meantime in the next 10 years it will take store of value market share from equities, real estate, gold, collectibles, etc and hence will grow rapidly.
How can you say that Bitcoin is not a mature asset at this point? Anyone on the planet with an internet connection can already buy Bitcoin. It's available through Wall Street sponsored ETFs. It's endorsed by the President of the United States and his close associates. Crypto (and thus Bitcoin) has stadium naming deals and Super Bowl advertisements. It could not possibly be more mainstream or available than it is now. Everyone has heard of Bitcoin. But the vast majority are still not interested.

There is no reason to believe that Bitcoin will take "store of value market share" from other asset classes. All assets in aggregate will be lifted by the rising tide of inflation to a similar degree over the long term. There's simply no reason to believe that Bitcoin will maintain 30% or greater YoY price increases in perpetuity (a rate that far outpaces "fiat debasement" and which therefore makes no sense if Bitcoin is merely a store of value).
 
No one buys Bitcoin for any purpose except financial speculation, that's why there is no natural demand. It doesn't perform any practical function. The entire concept of "HODLing" is based on this idea: you hold on for dear life through the inevitable ups and downs because you believe the price will ultimately increase a great deal. You aren't holding on for any other purpose, nor are you getting any actual use out of the Bitcoin. You're just hoarding it.

Also, calling Bitcoin "the best performing asset in history" may technically be true, but only because it's original price in 2009 was essentially zero (imagine if you measured Apple, NVidia or Microsoft stock returns from an IPO price of zero dollars). There are also vanishingly few if any individuals who bought or mined Bitcoin in those early days who have been HODLing ever since. Most early Bitcoin holders understandably emptied their bags when the Bitcoin price was in three or four digits. If you look at Bitcoin's performance since 2017 (when it became mainstream and the year after which the vast majority of current HODLers obtained their Bitcoin) its price action has been impressive but nothing to write home about (many stocks have outperformed it). Certainly not in the realm of the "best performing asset in history".

You may object to what I wrote above and say that Bitcoin has a function as a currency. This is true in theory, but in practice almost no one uses it for this purpose, and indeed the more ardent Bitcoin maxis explicitly argue against ever spending Bitcoin. And with the existence of Monero and stablecoins, what little use case Bitcoin had as a currency has completely disappeared. The utilization of the Lightning network has decreased drastically in recent years as a consequence of this fact.

This is cope. Bitcoin has zero future as a currency or means of payment, a fact which was recognized years ago, which is why maxis had to pivot toward the "store of value/fiat debasement" argument. If you go back and look at what Bitcoin proponents were saying previously, there was no mention of Bitcoin being a store of value whatsoever. It was all about how Bitcoin was a great currency and how everyone should use it for payments (Andreas Antonopoulos talked about paying his rent with Bitcoin. This was literally the predominant Bitcoin evangelist in the world at the time. Who do you hear advocating paying rent in Bitcoin today?)

I'm glad that your Bitcoin speculation worked out for you, but if you find yourself tossing large amounts of money at investment because you're convinced it will "save the world", you should recognize that you've probably been consuming a large amount of propaganda.

A combination of diminishing returns as the asset matures, reduced security on the network as mining becomes less profitable, quantum threats, or the development of new and exciting alternative investment options. It's very important to keep in mind that Bitcoin is a fungible collectible token, and like all collectibles, it's only valuable if people agree it has value. This is in contrast to stocks and real estate, which produce cash flows. I don't need you to believe that 10,000 shares of Exxon-Mobil have value: the dividend checks speak for themselves. But what are 10,000 Bitcoin worth? Only what you can convince someone else to pay, and they'll only pay if they believe the next guy will pay even more.

The ultimate proof of Bitcoin's worthlessness is this: if you owned every Bitcoin in the world, what have you achieved? What are they worth? You have spreadsheet entries in a distributed database. *golf clap* Why should anyone care? You have no claim to any real world assets.

Now imagine you owned every share of all 500 companies in the S&P. You're literally a multi-trillionaire and basically own the world. See the difference?
Bitcoin is both a store of value and a medium of exchange and when it matures it will also become a unit of account.

What you are missing about Bitcoin being a means of payment and a currency Is that it’s decentralised and has no issuer unlike stable coins which are centralised and can be controlled by the government and hence you can be censored if the government wants to censor you. They cannot censor Bitcoin. Hence why Bitcoin is superior to stable coins. Also stablecoins like fiat are a poor long term store of value.

As for other cryptos like Monero or Zcash etc they arguably have greater privacy than Bitcoin but they are less decentralised and have a lower level of network security and they do not have the same level of institutional acceptance or network effect so there are a lot of trade offs for receiving that increased privacy. Privacy coins have a use case but it’s a smaller total adressable market than Bitcoin. Do people sometimes need to do a transaction which is private yes. Do most people need to do that regularly? No.
 
There is no reason to believe that Bitcoin will take "store of value market share" from other asset classes.
In terms of use as a payment technology the rollout by major companies like Square and others is only just getting started.

Also banks will begin shortly offering it to their customers directly alongside their bank accounts with one click they will be able to buy Bitcoin and other major cryptos.

Just recently a major U.S. bank SOFI became the first major bank to offer purchasing cryptos alongside customer bank accounts.

Also banks custodying bitcoin and using it as collateral for loans will begin soon. Once people can borrow against their bitcoin for the same interest rate they can get a loan against blue chip stocks that will be a game changer. For example Robin Hood offers margin loan rates on stocks starting from 5.25%. Imagine being able to borrow against Bitcoin for 5.25%.
 
The whole "Bitcoin only goes up because the supply is finite!" argument ties in to what I said about it being a fungible collectible token. Yes, the Bitcoin supply is finite (as of now, at least - it could theoretically be expanded in the future via network consensus, but let's go ahead and say it remains capped at 21 million). The problem is that just because something is finite does not inherently confer it value. Scarcity itself does not create value, scarcity only creates value when there is also demand for the scarce resource in question. In regard to Bitcoin, there is no natural demand for it whatsoever, because it performs no function. It literally does nothing.
No better proof of this than NFTs. If anyone thinks scarcity confers objective value, all anyone needs to do is talk to the people who lost their life savings on that scam. The fact that many of the BTC maxis have bought into BTC based on that premise just shows that they are prime targets for a rug pull.
 
This is cope. Bitcoin has zero future as a currency or means of payment, a fact which was recognized years ago, which is why maxis had to pivot toward the "store of value/fiat debasement" argument. If you go back and look at what Bitcoin proponents were saying previously, there was no mention of Bitcoin being a store of value whatsoever. It was all about how Bitcoin was a great currency and how everyone should use it for payments (Andreas Antonopoulos talked about paying his rent with Bitcoin. This was literally the predominant Bitcoin evangelist in the world at the time. Who do you hear advocating paying rent in Bitcoin today?)
Just because someone says “this park was built so people can have picnics” does not mean you can’t walk your dog, fly a kite, or do whatever you want at the park.
“The electrical grid was built so we can have lighting and electric motors” was the grid built out in 1900 for the internet, computers and AI data centers?

There is no difference between “store of value” and “medium of exchange” anyway. Storing value is simply an exchange of value to from your present self, to your future self. Time is just another dimension of our 4 dimensional reality.

Bitcoin, like electricity, can be used for whatever you see fit to use it for.
 
Last edited:
There is no difference between “store of value” and “medium of exchange” anyway. Storing value is simply an exchange of value to from your present self, to your future self. Time is just another dimension of our 4 dimensional reality.
So if Bitcoin is a store of value, why would you expect it to continue growing in price at 30-50% per year? No other "store of value" asset does this. It's very obvious by Bitcoin's price action over the years that it is NOT a store of value, but rather a highly speculative pump and dump token.
 
So if Bitcoin is a store of value, why would you expect it to continue growing in price at 30-50% per year? No other "store of value" asset does this. It's very obvious by Bitcoin's price action over the years that it is NOT a store of value, but rather a highly speculative pump and dump token.
Bitcoin is not like any other asset.

Look at any chart, and bitcoin starts at the bottom-left, and ends at the top-right. What it does in-between is scary for most people, but also irrelevant if you are saving for the long term.
 
How many people in this thread who seem to hate BTC actually bought and held BTC from the earlier days? Like when it was under $1000? It’s performed great. Nobody makes it 100% of their portfolio unless they’re a total maniac. My observation in real life has been the people who crap on it missed out and then proceed to hate on the people who didn’t kind of like other things in life. It’s masked envy that someone got an insane return while they are collecting 4% on bonds or that yearly compounding from 6-8% in the stock market. No one will admit they missed out and were wrong. Lots of people made money and some got very rich. It’s just the way it is.
 
I can have all the fiat and stablecoins I need, using bitcoin.
Own bitcoin, rent dollars.
(Ledn, Strike, Unchained, Xapo Bank, Firefish, Arch)

Yes, you can’t eat, wear, or live in a bitcoin - but it can be transmuted to all of those things (without having to sell it)
You still have to ask the money changers to do that for you.
 
Last edited:
So if Bitcoin is a store of value, why would you expect it to continue growing in price at 30-50% per year? No other "store of value" asset does this.
I already addressed this point previously. Bitcoin is not mature yet. When the price gets to multiple millions of dollars per bitcoin the CAGR will slow down significantly but for now over the next 10 years I don’t see why it can’t do 30 - 50% CAGR.

Even many stock markets had an explosive growth in their early days before maturing. Look at the Russian stock market from 1997 to 2007 or the Japanese stock market from 1950 to 1989.

Gold has a roughly $30 trillion US dollar market cap. If that doubles in ten years to $60 trillion due to monetary debasement and Bitcoin catches up to gold in ten years time and is also at $60 trillion market cap. Bitcoin is currently under $2 trillion market cap. So $60 trillion is a 30x return from here. That would mean a Bitcoin price of $2.5 - $3 million dollars in ten years time.
 
Last edited:
I´m not invested in BTC or understand it or like it. But since BR mentioned Simon Dixon I got more interested in it. But I haven´t had time yet to take a deeper dive in it. Also don´t think it´s worth the tax paperwork to just invest 50k-100k. To be in it I would have to put more but without understanding it. I think Simon Dixon is very smart but naive (or wishful thinking).

Anyway and this is my point if it´s any help Simon Dixon keeps mentioning the need for self custody. This means anyone owning BTC should self custody it. I also dont know exactly what this means. But probably it´s direct control over it. Having it in a pen or something like that. All bitcoin owned through a third party will evaporate.

I´ve been hearing about USDC. But have no idea if it´s a good investment or not. I despise all this digital shit.

Don´t know where I heard the digital credit score and currency will be made by CBDC in Europe and company stablecoins in US.

Buffett just bought tons of google. Which for that old communist hag (that just wont die) must mean something in this sense.
 
Last edited:
This means anyone owning BTC should self custody it.
There are different ways to self custody bitcoin with the most secure way being cold storage (a hardware wallet).

This is usually though not always (there are many new fangled variations of hard wallets now which I won’t go into) a device which is encrypted and plugs into a computer and is both encrypted and air gapped meaning you have to physically press the buttons on the side of the device and enter the 4 digit pin to access it so nobody can hack it from the Internet connection.

This device allows you to use your Bitcoin and securely stores the seed phrase for you (the 24 unique words to access your Bitcoin). You write the 24 words generated by the device down on paper. If you lose the device you buy another device and enter the 24 word seed phrase and once again you have access to your Bitcoin. If you lose both the device and the seed phrase your Bitcoin remains inaccessible forever.

Of course there is a lot more to it if you really want to go down the rabbit hole but that’s just the basic intro to the concept of self custodying your Bitcoin.

If you keep your Bitcoin on an exchange and the exchange gets hacked or the government tells them to freeze your account then you will lose your Bitcoin or at least lose access to your Bitcoin. It’s why self custody is important. It’s like the difference between owning physical gold bullion stored in a vault in your house or owning paper gold like units in a gold ETF or having an unallocated account with a bullion dealer.

In precious metals there is an old saying “if you don’t hold it you don’t own it”. In crypto they say “not your keys not your coins”. Meaning if you don’t have access to the private keys and self custody the crypto then you don’t really own or control it.
 
I´ve been hearing about USDC. But have no idea if it´s a good investment or not.
USDC is just a stable coin pegged to the U.S. dollar. Each one USDC token is backed by one U.S. dollar. Therefore it’s not really an investment. It’s just a more convenient form of the U.S. dollar that allows you to transact in seconds 24/7 and send money anywhere across the globe without going through the banking system.

For example let’s say you live in France and you have a relative in USA and you want to send them money. Instead of using a wire transfer or western union both of which are slow and charge high fees and don’t operate 24/7 if you have some USDC tokens sitting in your hard wallet and he has a hard wallet you just send it to his hard wallet (wallets have a wallet address just like bank accounts have a bank account number). He then receives the tokens in a few seconds or less.

You could send $1000 this way and it would only cost you a few cents (depending on which network you use) and it will only take a few seconds.
 
The ultimate proof of Bitcoin's worthlessness is this: if you owned every Bitcoin in the world, what have you achieved? What are they worth? You have spreadsheet entries in a distributed database. *golf clap* Why should anyone care? You have no claim to any real world assets.

Now imagine you owned every share of all 500 companies in the S&P. You're literally a multi-trillionaire and basically own the world. See the difference?
This is excellent question. Let me answer, since you had mentioned "the world". As in entire world. I like the idea of "the world" because no country owns me, I do not want to be a slave to any ruler, oligarch or system.
Very soon I will not be able to own US stocks even though I'm a US citizen liable to pay US taxes from anywhere in the world. Both US regulations and practices and regulations of the country I will be moving will prevent me from doing so.

Moreover, you can not "own" any US stocks these days, really. They are held by the broker in the street name plus the broker fully controls your access to "your" stocks. Any moment you will lose it for "security reasons" undisclosed to you.
So for me, all the US stocks in S&P are worth...absolutely nothing to not much. I'm not alone, I can assure you. There are billions of people with similar situations.

As to owning all bitcoin in the world - yes it would be worth nothing, but bitcoin is a shared project, for the people, to avoid artificial, oppressive barriers by the zionist financial system and avoid fiat currency debasement, this is why many people own bitcoin which gives it value.
United States and its stocks is not the world. There are a lot more things of value in the world than all these companies selling things I don't need, their exponential growth scam has no value to me.
 
Last edited:
I'm just waiting for well into downcycle to buy in bulk. Would love to see some real lows.
I don’t have a crystal ball but from a probability standpoint there is a good chance that the current price is somewhere near the lows. You might want to consider starting to buy now and dollar cost averaging on the way down. Not financial advice of course.
 
Back
Top