$0?
But not so well that you don't own the best performing, global asset. Great understanding.
Until you figure out that value and "intrinsic" are contradictory, you will by no means speak intelligently on the subjects we discuss. Value is a human conclusion. I have decisively proven this many times before, which shows that you aren't mature, or complete, in your thinking. As we've said, such people get the price they deserve.
To understand something isn't necessarily to endorse it. From my perspective, owning Bitcoin is a bit like building a house on the side of an active volcano. With that analogy in mind, you can probably see why I don't want to own it.
Intrinsic value is a real concept, and is derived from human needs and desires, not arbitrary "human conclusions". Food, water, and shelter are the most basic human needs. Where there is need, there is demand, and where there is demand, there is value. But there is no need for Bitcoin; it appeals instead entirely to human greed. When, for whatever reason (and there are many possible potential reasons) Bitcoin stops appealing to human greed as well as it currently does, it will be replaced by some newfangled token of greed, and its price will collapse to near-zero.
I don't think you've proven anything, actually, given that the entirety of your argument boils down to, "But the line keeps going up and will continue going up indefinitely!" And I suppose this is a fine sort of argument... until one day it isn't. To return to my volcano analogy, you're like a guy living in a house on the side of a volcano, bragging about what a great view you have and how much the property has appreciated in value - bragging right up until the moment you get incinerated in a torrent of molten lava.
people need uncorrupted money:
- money that no one else can create, without first providing value to others
-money that a 3rd party has no control over and is unable to stop
-money that preserves its value over time
the demand for this technology is infinite
Money is the base layer of human activity, underlying every other foundation of civilization : without money we cannot even produce energy, what most people assume is the base layer technology of civilization.
Until we have uncorrupted money, we have a civilization built on a foundation of sand.
- money that no one else can create, without first providing value to others
-money that a 3rd party has no control over and is unable to stop
-money that preserves its value over time
the demand for this technology is infinite
Money is the base layer of human activity, underlying every other foundation of civilization : without money we cannot even produce energy, what most people assume is the base layer technology of civilization.
Until we have uncorrupted money, we have a civilization built on a foundation of sand.
That perspective doesn't understand BTC.
I've explained this before. No, the conclusions aren't arbitrary. But they are conditional, in that value is derived from the characteristics of the thing in question, regardless of its internal energy, since if other things replace it and are better, the relative value will then change - proving my point. The word "intrinsic" in that sense makes no sense. The value changes based on the human perception and utility.
As above, need is also perceived need. For example, you don't perceive to need a sound money, but many others do. That's why we say you will lose out over time, and you will bend the knee, because your perception is off, and the market is telling you that. Objectively, of course there is need for a money that isn't debased and unfairly stealing from people while the centralists benefit. How you could say that humans being debased wouldn't need this is proof of the absurdity of your positions. If wrong, why is the demand continuing to go up? You try to explain it away, and it becomes more and more laughable, like Peter Schiff, year over year.
I just destroyed this foolish argument. Nothing you appeal to suggests there is no need. The arguments of debasement, the market, etc all prove already that you are mistaken.
Any human who works for money would prefer that money to not be arbitrarily debased. Do you suggest that people secretly wish for the money they work for to LOSE purchasing power? It's hysterically funny.
My argument boils down to what is good money AND what the market has told you for what, 15 years now?
There is nothing you can point to that actually supports your position. The market doesn't. The fundamentals of money don't. You can only appeal to things that you imagine ("greed"), nothing substantial, nothing in real life that you can prove. That's why you don't even have an argument, it's all feelings for you.
On the other hand, you can verify literally every point we make. Think about that.
I'm a fomer hard bitcoin skeptic. I'm not young and I'm careful about new stuff. Lately, my mind had been changing though, there is too much evidence that bitcoin is not merely some tulip mania and actually might be a kind of digital gold. Life had taught me a couple of big lessons in the last few years. I want to start buying bitcoin but think should wait until the next downcycle as it had been cyclical so far (?). Of course, I regret not buying earlier. I'd like to put 3-5% of savings into bitcoin.
I used to bring all the above arguments against bitcoin, to myself. I had believed Buffet's argument that it has no intrinsic value but now I see him being self serving or entrenched in stiff convictions. Bitcoin literally outlives its opponents and it might outlive me.
Does gold, recognized store of value, with its minimal industrial use have intrinsic value? Value is merely what people, collectively, give to something and it might be only a small group of people which is enough to give high value (collectibles, for example). Also, bitcoin meets important needs: digital, secure payment instrument and value store against devaluing world currencies, quickly transmittable accross the world, free from external government control and private, if you want it to be. You can not easily take gold around the world (customs duties, can be very high), its not safe to carry around, even storing it securely is difficult without surrendering custody, gold has trouble meeting the full needs of modern mobile world plus there is high spread for physical gold. Something got to be taking at least some of its market share now.
I also never liked the greed and speculation part about bitcoin, but I think this is just side effects that come with the territory. I agree with PurpleUrkel that "investment" in general is not a good thing, to me its akin to usury and in ideal world money should be sound and not requiring investing to keep them from losing value. But I guess one can view buying bitcoin not as an investment for profit but as trying to protect savings from devalutation and something to protect retirement. I will depend on social security for my retirement and I'm positive that they will try to rugpull people of my generation and younger. Already, I heard a hint of raising retirement age last week. Im sure whatever SSA gets paid later it will be devaued first, this is scary. Ongoing dollar devaluation is also extra scary to me as I will be moving away from the States and lose on currency exchange. I trust gold and swiss frank some, and think bitcoin should be a part of it
I used to bring all the above arguments against bitcoin, to myself. I had believed Buffet's argument that it has no intrinsic value but now I see him being self serving or entrenched in stiff convictions. Bitcoin literally outlives its opponents and it might outlive me.
Does gold, recognized store of value, with its minimal industrial use have intrinsic value? Value is merely what people, collectively, give to something and it might be only a small group of people which is enough to give high value (collectibles, for example). Also, bitcoin meets important needs: digital, secure payment instrument and value store against devaluing world currencies, quickly transmittable accross the world, free from external government control and private, if you want it to be. You can not easily take gold around the world (customs duties, can be very high), its not safe to carry around, even storing it securely is difficult without surrendering custody, gold has trouble meeting the full needs of modern mobile world plus there is high spread for physical gold. Something got to be taking at least some of its market share now.
I also never liked the greed and speculation part about bitcoin, but I think this is just side effects that come with the territory. I agree with PurpleUrkel that "investment" in general is not a good thing, to me its akin to usury and in ideal world money should be sound and not requiring investing to keep them from losing value. But I guess one can view buying bitcoin not as an investment for profit but as trying to protect savings from devalutation and something to protect retirement. I will depend on social security for my retirement and I'm positive that they will try to rugpull people of my generation and younger. Already, I heard a hint of raising retirement age last week. Im sure whatever SSA gets paid later it will be devaued first, this is scary. Ongoing dollar devaluation is also extra scary to me as I will be moving away from the States and lose on currency exchange. I trust gold and swiss frank some, and think bitcoin should be a part of it
Someone with flexibility of mind, even with age, and thus, humility. Well done, jayco.
People trade all kinds of stuff. When they see volatility and money, they get excited, and trade it more. Most people live in fear.
Those of us who understand BTC know there is nothing to fear. We have the utmost conviction because we know what it is. We know at least it's a power law, which means we know it will continue climbing as it has been climbing, at a very predictable R² to the trend line, when zooming out. Thus, we don't get shaken out, we welcome dips even. It's so obvious, it's actually funny.
And it's entertaining to guess what the naysayers will continue to say as we reach, 200, then 500k, then 1M and we get into 20, 25 years after the Genesis Block. Pure entertainment.
It is clear. As you point out, certain people value things differently. The point with BTC is that money is the most valuable thing since it's the representation of the most valuable thing to humans in the world = energy and time, and is the most saleable good. That's what good money is, and the characteristics it has as money, which are superior to gold and scarcity, security and inability to be (whimsically) debased, guarantee that it is what we say it is.
Things have intrinsic properties, but people assign value. That's why we can have things that have properties but no longer does it matter that they have those properties if we use something else instead. This is in fact the point of technology. We live now in a global age where portability and quick settlement are desired. There's no value in not being debased by tyrannical governments, or being shut off completely by them? Laughable, if you're actually living in this same world where we've not only seen it, we know it's their agenda. How someone could be on this forum and not see what governments actively do, and what they want to do, and not see value in BTC is amazing in itself.
Gold was only good locally, and even then it was still easily centralized and made into IOUs for various reasons (assay, divisibility, etc). BTC is literally better money in every single way, because the local and physical aspect still isn't a guarantee (do you know it's actually gold, will they take it, etc).
Yes, people get sidetracked by that. I think deep down we suspect that the critics of BTC, having no real argument, are just sour grapes guys. I mean, are you going to get to 20 years of a substantial market with the whole world buying, holding, hash going up, the smartest men in the world talking about it, the biggest financial groups owning/holding it, it being valued in the millions USD, etc and still claim it's a "ponzi" or some such nonsense similar? It's laughable.
People trade all kinds of stuff. When they see volatility and money, they get excited, and trade it more. Most people live in fear.
Those of us who understand BTC know there is nothing to fear. We have the utmost conviction because we know what it is. We know at least it's a power law, which means we know it will continue climbing as it has been climbing, at a very predictable R² to the trend line, when zooming out. Thus, we don't get shaken out, we welcome dips even. It's so obvious, it's actually funny.
And it's entertaining to guess what the naysayers will continue to say as we reach, 200, then 500k, then 1M and we get into 20, 25 years after the Genesis Block. Pure entertainment.
Don’t try to time it. If you want a 5% allocation, buy it all now, or buy it in monthly installments to DCA. We might have cycles and we might not.
Bitcoin is better thought of as savings, not as an investment. I don’t own bitcoin in hopes of getting more dollars - my goal is to have more bitcoin at the end of the year than at the beginning. I am saving, in bitcoin.
If you get in now at 114, you'll be happy, it's only going up in the next 3 months and over the long term - zoomed out.
Nothing will increase your knowledge of bitcoin and desire to learn about it more than:
- buying some
- sending a transaction
- taking self custody
From Neo wage slaving in a cubicle, to waking up on the Nebuchadnezzar, and you'll wonder why your eyes hurt.
Some people will choose the easy life of a slave (Cypher) while others have agency and the desire for freedom, no matter what.
The Matrix is such a good metaphor for bitcoin I think.
- buying some
- sending a transaction
- taking self custody
From Neo wage slaving in a cubicle, to waking up on the Nebuchadnezzar, and you'll wonder why your eyes hurt.
Some people will choose the easy life of a slave (Cypher) while others have agency and the desire for freedom, no matter what.
The Matrix is such a good metaphor for bitcoin I think.
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I like DCA approach.
I'm curious why do you think there could be no more down cycles, given it had been cyclical so far. Even gold has big cycles, pretty much like any other value.
I'm not talking about waiting for $X amount to be hit/some resistance level, which might never get hit.
More thinking about DCA-ing into more heavily on the next down cycle.
Can you recommend good resources, analytics with trend predictions to read or follow? So far I had been reading Lyn Alden some and some zerohedge, but the latter went downhill and their finance articles are often subscription only
I think the 4 year cycle will break - we might peak in 2026 (traditionally a down year). Maybe the cycle doesn't break this time. It doesn't matter.
You could wait for a down cycle, sure - but good luck figuring out when that is. In 2027 if the drop is only 40%, will you buy then? What if it is $250k and crashes to $170k? Would you still buy, knowing you waited when it was $100k?
Get some now, a meaningful amount. Then you won't be waiting for a price that never comes - get a 1% allocation, keep learning, then the more you know, you will want to make it 5%, then 30%, then you won't care so much about the price, or where we are in the cycle. The only wrong allocation is 0%
Bitcoin is better than gold, in every way. it will overtake gold inside of 20 years. Gold will probably 5x in 20 years, so bitcoin would need to 100x. Thats $10M per bitcoin. $100k or $120k or $70k is a rounding error.
One thing, with age person comes to realize how costly mistakes and persistence in wrong convictions can be down the road.
I see fiat money as representation of belief and trust in the system. The value of gold I see as representation of conviction that goes far beyond the system. One can live through 6 countries in their life without ever relocating, multiple political and economic systems replacing each ither, multiple fiat currencies but gold had stayed, the only thing that did. Things that represent one socioeconomic system tend to be more temporary.
Yes, this, especially. Imagine someone gets accused of some kind of extremism just because they said something online, their accounts all get frozen quick and their home gets raided as they get arrested, their safe with gold, cash gets taken away. This is a current reality in a few countries right now and might become a reality everywhere, eventually. Digital self-custody savings might be the only thing such person can end up keeping and it might help them leave the country, even. Then, capital controls kind of stuff, it ruines lives. Then, careless and malicious debasement if currency, it's bad in America but it's even much worse in most other countries.
Yes, authenticity of gold is another issue. By the way, in some places on earth banks will not accept bars with the slightest blemish, while uts very soft metal easy to scratch, and outside buyers will severely devalue it. People often got robbed ad even killed trying to transport their gold.
Almost like a "conspiracy" theory lol, but upside down. I think it's major worldwide paradigm shift in progress
Someone had recently told me they do not see much upside given bitcoin is 2T market cap already. But gold alone has 10x market cap, I think it should be a hint. That is not even counting all the expected currency debasement/debt blowing up.
No, you are special. It's quite rare, but it does happen. As I've said, several men on here don't have the humility and honesty you do to recognize what is quite clear. What is sad about me saying that is that if someone reads it, it proves the humility part -the emotions will get stirred and instead of changing they'll just get more mad at someone like me pointing it out, acting like I'm making fun of them, though I truly have no axe to grind and am trying to help. They hate it though, and truly want it to fail for other (emotional) reasons. Thing is? It won't.
It's amazing how early we are and how bad of takes people have; your example if just 1 step of basic math too. You don't even have to bring up the power law like I did, which shows you it is growing like many natural phenomena (cities, the solar system, natural reproduction of certain species, etc).
I can't imagine a much more exciting time to be in the cycle, by the way, because gold's big time move this year is setting the stage for a huge BTC move and re-setting the BTC price floor. It's quite nice. As I had predicted, gold will do well for several years and then you'll see most people in gold finally "realize" that BTC was always better for the modern age and digital economy. When draconian governments and abusive laws continue, it'll be laughable to think you can carry, store, and trade gold easily - when the whole point of the insurance is global movement, trade, and portability. That's where BTC shines.
That is not an accurate statement. Bitcoin is better than gold overall. It is not better in every way though.
-Gold also has non financial utility (jewellery, industrial use) unlike Bitcoin which only serves as money/digital capital.
-Physical gold is 100% anonymous if transacted for cash in the secondary market. There are ways you can make Bitcoin harder to trace but its never 100% anonymous.
-Physical gold can be transacted instantly and without the use of any technology. I can hand over a gold kruggerand to you instantly in person. When the internet is not accessible Bitcoin can still work through secondary options but its no longer convenient.
The next part is true in one sense but in another sense buying Bitcoin at $70,000 vs $100,000 makes a huge difference. If you buy at $70,000 you end up with 43% more Bitcoin (satoshis) then if you bought at $100,000. But yes I agree with the general point you are making that either way you are going to make a lot of money and the important part is to buy rather then take the risk and wait for a (low) price that never comes and end up missing out entirely. Being worth "only" $7 million instead of $10 million because you paid more for your Bitcoin isn't going to change your life much but not owning any Bitcoin will suck when Bitcoin explodes higher.
Cult indoctrination 101: flatter the mark's ego. "You are special. You are smarter/wiser/more humble and can see what others don't see. You have been chosen for greatness."
Jayco, you're a grown man and free to do with your money as you please, but you should understand that you're interacting with two extremely zealous Bitcoin advocates here. This is hardly objective advice. Blade Runner and chance vought would still advise you to buy Bitcoin if it was already $10m a coin and you didn't have two nickels to rub together. They are hyper delusional Bitcoin maxis who don't view Bitcoin as a good investment, but rather as a utopian technology that will completely reshape the world and usher in some sort of golden age for mankind. They are in a cult, and they want you to join them. It's that simple.
As Michael Saylor pointed out the digital version of anything is worth at least 10x the analog version.
Compare the market cap of Netflix to the market cap of Blockbuster when it was at its peak (long before its bankruptcy). Look at how much real estate related revenue physical newspapers generated (from classified ads) compared to companies like Zillow, Realestate.com.au, etc.
This is because the marginal cost of production/distribution of digital things is close to zero compared to physical stuff. An additional subscriber to Netflix costs the company almost nothing (after the intial customer acqusiition cost which all businesses have) but for blockbuster for every additrional customer they had to stock more videos/DVDs in stock which is a meaningful cost. For wikipedia it costs them nothing when an additional person reads their articles whereas for encylopedia Brittanica every copy that somebody uses has huge printing/manufacturing and freight costs involved.
Digital commerce has wider distribution and much less cost than physical commerce hence why Amazon has three times the market cap of Walmart.
Therefore by this logic digital gold (i.e. Bitcoin) should eventually be worth exponentially more than physical gold. If physical gold is a $20 trillion market cap then digital gold (bitcoin) should eventually be a $60 - $200 trillion market cap.