Precious Metals

[Cooper]

There are certainly fundamentals pushing silver higher, but the recent price action is indicative of complete mania. It's trading like a crypto or meme stock at this point. There's money to be made here, but extreme caution is advised. If sentiment turns bearish it could easily lose 20-30% in a day or two.

I think the runup is more indicative of two fundamental shifts, dedolarization, which is pushing reserve precious metals up, and industrial use, which makes silver closer to other high demand metals like copper or nickel, combined with the inelastic supply of silver (production cannot scale up massively in the short term in response to greater demand). There might also be a short squeeze situation where the price could be pushed above fundamentals.

But even if prices do go down, it will always be a good investment in the long run as we are in a prolonged period of high inflation.

 

[scorpion]

But even if prices do go down, it will always be a good investment in the long run as we are in a prolonged period of high inflation.

Precious metals will obviously never be worthless, but if you buy at the peak of a massive run-up and then suffer a big correction, "the long run" can be very long indeed - you might not recover for a decade or more. If you bought silver during the last big peak around 2011, you would have been underwater until just a few months ago - fifteen years of stagnation, a time during which stocks saw absolutely explosive growth.

 

[Cooper]

I am a lot less worried about silver at $100 than say TSLA at 300 P/E, or the AI/Mag 7 bubble in general. IMHO silver at $150+ and gold in the $6k-$8k range later this decade are reasonable bets, YMMV...