The Venezuela Thread

Northern Pilgrim said:
Agree. I've seen one video of an alleged manpad rocket launch and a helo dropping flares/chaff. This tracks with the only one damaged and a few guys receiving enemy marksmanship awards. The main sam's & radars were either not turned on or were just sitting there with crews enjoying the holidays...
The Russians & Chinese obviously weren't manning their tech in Venezuela, just like how the US sells equipment, trains the local mil and then watches from a safe distance.

Like Choppa has said repeatedly for years now, China doesn't have any combat experience for decades. It's one thing to do it on paper, it's another thing to it for real.

Another thing to consider is how much effort are you going to put into something in your backyard vs your foe's backyard? Why would Russia put a lot of resources into helping Venezuela when they have their own problems right on their doorstep and are making huge inroads in Africa? The juice just isn't worth the squeeze...
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Russia and China have zero power projection in Latin America hence were muscled out of Venezuela without much effort, plain and simple. No need for post priori cope-laced takes on how it's actually part of some greater plan, both Moscow and Beijing had their eyes on Venezuela's raw resources and geostrategic potential vis a vis the US for decades, ergo subsequently invested tens of billions of USD in building up Caracas' military, maintaining and converting Venezuela's oil sector and propping up its faltering economy from going head under.

All of that is now a goner. In whatever scenario follows next, Beijing+ Moscow's investment, access to raw resources, escalation ladder equalizer and ego are down the drain. Venezuela could be in a civil war and burn it's oil installations tomorrow and they still wouldn't be allowed back in. This isn't for the first time either, China and especially Russia's strategic defeat in Venezuela fits in a wider playbook, namely increased American assertiveness followed by a string of strategic and humiliating defeats imposed on Moscow. Take a good look at Iran's current state to understand what Russia's eventual endgame could look like not that far down the line. Putin, for now, is lucky that Trump sees value in a defanged and trimmed down Russia to keep down the Europeans, a future Dem President will not have those considerations.

Russia and China cannot retaliate for the loss of Venezuela because both trail hard on the escalation ladder and are more bark than bite, hence the current thirdy lamenting& wailing on how 'the US just does what it wants', at times changed up with copes on 'international law, human rights violations', etc. If anything these statements how hard they are getting cucked.

Russia's especially is entering a dangerous timeline. They are getting picked at, stripped naked and set up for. The Latin chapter is closing for them abruptly, just like Russia before got booted out of the Levant, the Southern Caucasus and had the door in a number of other theatres slammed shut, is currently seeing it's trade routes+ tanker fleet picked at, and will soon see it's already waning influence in Central Asia get contested even further - Turkey especially will be the US work horse as China closes in from the other side. 2026 could very well be the year in which Moscow loses its position in Cuba, Venezuela, and Iran, wild stuff.

Your reference to Moscow's 'huge inroads in Africa' is apt because it does represent one theatre in which Moscow was moving ahead. However, anno 2026 the AES is getting squeezed hard too, by on the one hand escalating jihadist insurgencies on the one hand its hampered logistic networks due to strategic losses in Libya+ Syria.
 
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Another tanker was seized by US forces in the Caribbean - "Veronica", recently re-registered to Russia as "Galileo".

Elite capabilities. Unmatched authorities. Unified resolve.
This morning, a @USCG tactical team boarded and seized Motor Tanker Veronica, a sanctioned oil tanker, in the Caribbean Sea. Our unique maritime law enforcement authorities – and thorough interagency coordination with the Departments of War, Justice, and State – ensured a safe, seamless operation in accordance with U.S. and international law. Alongside U.S. Sailors and Marines, our maritime fighting force is bringing every capability at our disposal to interdict ghost fleet tankers and uphold international law. With unwavering resolve, the Coast Guard continues operations to control, secure, and defend our U.S. borders and maritime approaches. We stand Always Ready to defend the American people from threats on the high seas.
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7th tanker seized.
Through #OpSouthernSpear, the @DeptofWar is unwavering in its mission to crush illicit activity in the Western Hemisphere in partnership with @USCG, @DHSgov and @TheJusticeDept.
This morning, U.S. military forces, in support of the Department of Homeland Security, apprehended Motor Vessel Sagitta without incident. The apprehension of another tanker operating in defiance of President Trump’s established quarantine of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean demonstrates our resolve to ensure that the only oil leaving Venezuela will be oil that is coordinated properly and lawfully. As the joint force operates in the Western Hemisphere, we reaffirm that the security of the American people is paramount, demonstrating our commitment to safety and stability.
These operations are backed by the full power our elite joint force team deployed in the Caribbean.
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The newly inaugurated Delcy Rodriguez Chavista government is on a tight leash and playing ball. Today the Rodriguez government announced that the Venezuelan oil sector will privatize opening the judicial hatch to increased US investment and ownership. Simultaneously Rodriguez ordered the closure of El Helicoile, and Amnesty Law and another 500 political prisoners to be released. The Trump Administration also indicated that the freed up Venezuelan oil production will be used to ween India off Russian oil.





 
Following the US takeover of the Venezuelan oil industry, commodities trading firms were given contracts to market the crude to buyers across the world, including to China but Venezuelan crude oil is now being sold at far higher prices than before, with the profits routed through US companies and energy traders.

The higher prices have pushed Chinese refiners out of the market for the heavy crude from Venezuela, and they are shifting their orders to Canada, Russia, and Iran.

Canadian tar sands oil is more expensive than Venezuelan heavy sour, but is similar, and offers far shorter transit times and lower shipping costs.

Chinese energy traders have been instructed to refuse new offers for Venezuelan crude.



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expectation said:
Following the US takeover of the Venezuelan oil industry, commodities trading firms were given contracts to market the crude to buyers across the world, including to China but Venezuelan crude oil is now being sold at far higher prices than before, with the profits routed through US companies and energy traders.
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It's the other way around - Venezuelan oil used to be sold so cheap that regular prices seem so high now. Maduro was selling oil at steep discount (-$15/bbl) so his customers aren't really interested with paying the market price. Not when there are alternatives. Vitol offered to sell Venezuelan oil to China with a -$5/bbl discount, but that wasn't enough - not when Russia discounts their oil around -$10/bbl and Iran around -$12/bbl.
But that doesn't mean that no one is interested in Venezuelan oil. What wasn't enough to interest China, is still attractive to buyers like Italy or Spain, not to mention US refineries which, obviously, get much larger discounts.
 
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