The Venezuela-Guyana Conflict Thread

LaAguilaNegra

LaAguilaNegra

Other Christian
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LaAguilaNegra said:
The Venezuelan Supreme Court of Justice has ordered a plebiscite to be held on the future of the Essequibo region. This referendum will be held on December 3.

Essequibo is the subject of a territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. The dispute stems from the days of the British Empire and currently it is administered by Guyana. Essequibo comprises of about 2/3s of Guyana's territory.

Venezuela says it wants to win Essequibo over by Peace Diplomacy. Guyana something worse. Venezuela also alleges the USA is militarizing the area. There are many newly discovered oil fields in Essequibo, as a result Guyana's GDP will grow by 38 percent this year.

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Today is the Esequibo plebiscite in Venezuela. The outcome of the referendum is likely to be Yes to all 5 issues presented, as the Venezuelan government is pushing a 5x yes. IMG_20231203_173450_532.webp

Not sure what the endgame is. Probably has to do with political games. The US recently agreed with Maduro that in trade for sanctions relief (ie Venezuelan oil entering the markets) the country would have to implement snap elections. Drumming up fervour through highlighting Esequibo is distraction from that. What comes after the plebiscite nobody knows, but the Venezuelans sound pretty serious about the it.

According to the Venezuelan side they are fighting US imperialism, and the current situation is the result of past British territorial theft. Ie. Esequibo has always been Venezuelan due to the territory belonging the Gran Colombia since the days of Spanish rule. All territory West of the Esequibo River is hence Venezuelan and should be returned to Venezuela.

The Guyana side claims that the 1814 Dutch-British Treaty is legal ground for Guyanan rule over the territory. This claim was later confirmed by Schomburg who claimed that Guyanan/British territory extended all the way till the Orinoco River.

There have been many settlement attempts since then but Venezuela and Guyana/Britain never agreed on a demarcated border.
images - 2023-12-03T175848.710.webp

Some additional info: Venezuela claims the US is militarizing the Esequibo region. Esequibo's maritime zone has also seen one of the biggest fossil fuel discoveries in the world (Exxon Mobil has the rights), and in 2022 Guyana's GDP has been growing with 62 percent as a result of it. The region itself is deep jungle and marshland. The only roads that lead from Venezuela to Esequibo are through Brazil

Gas/oilfields in Esequibo's maritime zone. IMG_20231203_175714_687.webpIMG_20231203_122350_046.webp

Road through Brazil. IMG_20231203_171229_243.webp

Territorial disputes elsewhere.
IMG_20231203_175655_284.webp
 
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Results are in:

Venezuela

Results of the Consultative Referendum for Essequibo, with a participation of 10,554,230 people (votes)

Q No. 1

• Yes: 97.83% ✅
• No: 2.17% ❌

Q No. 2

• Yes: 98.11% ✅
• No: 1.8% ❌

Q No. 3

• Yes: 95.40% ✅
• No: 4.10% ❌

Q No. 4

• Yes: 95.94% ✅
• No: 4.06% ❌

Q No. 5

• Yes: 95.93% ✅
• No: 4.07% ❌

Q's

1) Do you agree to reject by all means, in accordance with the law, the line fraudulently imposed by the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899, which seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba?

2) Do you support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution for Venezuela and Guyana regarding the controversy over the territory of Guayana Esequiba?

3) Do you agree with Venezuela's historical position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the territorial controversy over Guayana Esequiba?

4) Do you agree to oppose, by all legal means, Guyana's claim to unilaterally dispose of a pending sea to be delimited, illegally and in violation of international law?

5) Do you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for comprehensive care for the current and future population of that territory that includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and Venezuelan identity card, in accordance to the Geneva Agreement and international law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?
 




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It's the time of global mergers and acquisitions for Oil companies and apparently oil producing states too.

Guyana is specifically one of the 5 functional business areas for XOM... So methinks they'll not be in favor of their developments in Guyana and infrastructure in neighboring Suriname denigrated.
 
TruckDriver9 said:
Since Guyana is a member of the Commonwealth, is the UK under any obligation to protect, or at least support, them ?
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The timing is great from the Venezuelans, and could be an indicator that this has been prepared and planned by more powerful states (with whom they are on good standing). The US currently has its hands full in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The US sanction stick is not going to work, probably not even applied. Just a couple of weeks back the US agreed to re-open the markets for Venezuelan oil in turn for snap elections. The Biden Administration is still trying to decrease the oil price and re-plenish its Strategic Oil Reserves (lowest in 30 years).

From what I am hearing Venezuela doesn't have any immediate plans for military intervention. Or maybe they do, but it's not overt. Their main play seems to be the oil fields on the Caribbean. They want to start drilling and exploiting as soon as possible. What's going to happen if they move their ships into that area and do what they said they will do?

Whether the UK could do anything on itself is a big question. They have had many rounds of austerity and the Royal Navy is a shell of its former self. Really doubtful if they could maintain a military campaign on the other side of the globe by themselves
 
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Get2choppaaa said:
It's the time of global mergers and acquisitions for Oil companies and apparently oil producing states too.

Guyana is specifically one of the 5 functional business areas for XOM... So methinks they'll not be in favor of their developments in Guyana and infrastructure in neighboring Suriname denigrated.
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There is no militany aspect to the Commonwealth of Nations. It's now primarily a vector for leftism.

The politics of Guyana has long been divided between two leftist blocks, which are mainly delineated between blacks and Indians.

The current Prrsident Ali has been accused of multiple crimes, including electoral fraud and stealing over $200m.

Despite being Indian and the head of a de facto Indians-first party, he has be clamouring for reperations. Which he would no doubt seek to steal.

It looks like the US trans army will get the call.
 
Venezuela can not even feed its own population, and its currency is totally worthless, despise absolutely ginormous oil reserves ....best time to start a war huh ?

Sounds like the same political and economic situation when unstable dictatorial Argentina tried to invade the Falkland islands in the early 1980s and got its fat latin ass kicked from middle of the Atlantic Ocean, all the way back to Buenos Aires.
 
Cynllo said:
There is no militany aspect to the Commonwealth of Nations. It's now primarily a vector for leftism.

The politics of Guyana has long been divided between two leftist blocks, which are mainly delineated between blacks and Indians.

The current Prrsident Ali has been accused of multiple crimes, including electoral fraud and stealing over $200m.

Despite being Indian and the head of a de facto Indians-first party, he has be clamouring for reperations. Which he would no doubt seek to steal.

It looks like the US trans army will get the call.
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Guyana has a population of 800 000, more than half of which live abroad. Of the 400 000 left a significant part are Amerindians living in tribal societies deep in the jungle.

The Guyana army is a little over 4000 strong, and their Navy/ Coast Guard consists of patrol boats and one minesweeper that is in unservicable condition anno 2023. They can't defend themselves if Venezuela gets serious. Someone will have to do the heavy lifting.
 
Caduceus said:
What will they pay the Venezuelan soldiers with ?
Papayas and Bananas ?
Their currency is worthless and most people in Venezuela can't even afford basic food and shelter.





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If the argument is that Venezuela's dire economic situation has effected its military capacity, that's not true.

A country like Turkey has inflation numbers of 50-60-70 percent too. But they remain the strongest military in the Middle East, and one of the strongest in NATO. Turkey's military is involved in three or four foreign adventures.

Venezuela has serious military capabilities. Their main Army and a paramilitary organization on the side that has ideologically committed troops. There are 50-60 000 loyalist Bolivarian Guards. You don't have to pay those guys anything, they do things like 'fighting imperialism' for free.
 
don’t most latin american countries use USDs de facto since they have insane inflation?

I also thought that Yemen were extremely poor but they apparently have enough resources and expertise to harass and strike at other ships despite being surrounded by hostile Sunni Arabs and American ships. Maybe the Hyperinflation front is not the full story.
 
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expectation said:
don’t most latin american countries use USDs de facto since they have insane inflation?
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No they use typically a worthless peso.

Argentina, under new president switched to dollar.
expectation said:
I also thought that Yemen were extremely poor but they apparently have enough resources and expertise to harass and strike at other ships despite being surrounded by hostile Sunni Arabs and American ships. Maybe the Hyperinflation front is not the full story.
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Yeah... Amazing what Iran foreign money can do.

90 percent of Yemen is a total SHole.

Anything Iran funds is doing ok.
 
I forgot to mention that the president is agitating for slavery reparations. But not from Africa, of course, where they were enslaved and sold. Now he's asking for support from the UK.



No doubt the President would be disappearung this money, since he's the head of the Indian party in a country that sees ethnic violence during every election.
 
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