The Trump tariffs

TruckDriver9 said:
A Norwegian bike is sold in America VAT free, an American bike is sold in Norway with VAT.



America is the world largest beef producer - a 344% tariff on beef does affect us.



I just pointed out that a 25% tariff, already forced companies to manufacture their goods in the US, even when they have other plants abroad.
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That doesn't make sense, as a bike made in Norway is also subject to 25 percent VAT. It's not hard to see the difference! There's no competitive advantage for domestic companies. Europe does not have these agro customs in general, it's mainly Norway. And those are geared towards neighbouring nations, not the US. But that's all pretty fringe anyway...

Just let me add that protectionism does work yes. I should know, since food prices are insanely high in Norway. Maybe there's a point in protecting local food production. But again, prices go up massively! I think Trump will backtrack, but if he doesn't, prices will rise very significantly. Clothing in particular is a problem. The west basically exploits Asia for cheap textiles. Maybe we should return to the days when people inherited clothes, and put name tags on their shirts. But what I'm saying is that the voters are not gonna like it! They want an easy fix, they don't wanna start sowing again etc.

PS; As far as I know, Brazil is the largest exporter of beef globally;

2023 Beef Export Quantity.png
 
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Johnnyvee said:
That doesn't make sense, as a bike made in Norway is also subject to 25 percent VAT. It's not hard to see the difference! There's no competitive advantage for domestic companies.
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You tax us, we don't tax You - that's the difference.

Johnnyvee said:
Europe does not have these agro customs in general, it's mainly Norway. And those are geared towards neighbouring nations, not the US. But that's all pretty fringe anyway...
Just let me add that protectionism does work yes. I should know, since food prices are insanely high in Norway. Maybe there's a point in protecting local food production. But again, prices go up massively! I think Trump will backtrack, but if he doesn't, prices will rise very significantly. Clothing in particular is a problem. The west basically exploits Asia for cheap textiles. Maybe we should return to the days when people inherited clothes, and put name tags on their shirts.
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Buying domestic goods is the best way to avoid any potential price increase. But I don't think we'll see huge price spikes, some prices will go up for shure, but dumping the whole tariff on the consumers will backfire with lower sale volumes, and leave the companies with surplus of already made, and paid for goods. Sweatshop economies have extreme profit margins (way above the tariff rate) and can split the tariff along the chain, lowering the factory and retail margins, and still make profits.

Johnnyvee said:
But what I'm saying is that the voters are not gonna like it! They want an easy fix, they don't wanna start sowing again etc.
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I'm one of these voters, and I'm not concerned.

Johnnyvee said:
PS; As far as I know, Brazil is the largest exporter of beef globally;

View attachment 19876
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I said producer, as trade barriers imposed by other countries limit our exports.
 
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TruckDriver9 said:
You tax us, we don't tax You - that's the difference.



Buying domestic goods is the best way to avoid any potential price increase. But I don't think we'll see huge price spikes, some prices will go up for shure, but dumping the whole tariff on the consumers will backfire with lower sale volumes, and leave the companies with surplus of already made, and paid for. Sweatshop economies have extreme profit margins (way above the tariff rate) and can split the tariff along the chain, lowering the factory and retail margins, and still make profits.



I'm one of these voters, and I'm not concerned.



I said producer, as trade barriers imposed by other countries limit our exports.
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No we don't tax you, we tax ourselves! You might not be concerned, but that doesn't help. You know how most people think...
I don't think buying domestic is an option for textiles. The cost of labour etc, prices will probably just go up if it's upheld. And that's a big if!
 
Johnnyvee said:
No we don't tax you, we tax ourselves! You might not be concerned, but that doesn't help. You know how most people think...
I don't think buying domestic is an option for textiles. The cost of labour etc, prices will probably just go up if it's upheld. And that's a big if!
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Did a quick look around the house, and the only Asian made items I have are towels, and the bathroom rug - I won't go bankrupt if I have to buy new ones at a higher price.
 
budoslavic said:


Edit.
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Navarro also literally went to prison for Trump along with Bannon AND has been one of the only members of the team to have been consistent through out all the drama. He has been Trump's advisor on the China situation and countered Fauci and all the COVID crap.
Johnnyvee said:
I don't know if it's worth replying to that, since it's back to the gotcha mindset again. Extreme fringe point...But for what it's worth, VAT applies evenly, so it's not a tariff again. If you wanna sell a bike in Norway, the VAT is the same (25 percent) whether it's made in the US, Germany or Norway. Also, the agricultural protectionism in Norway does not apply to the rest of Europe again, and is only very theoretically affecting US products.

I really don't think tariffs work. More likely Americans will just have to pay more for clothes, electronics, shoes etc. If you wanna take back manufacturing I think you have to do completely different things.
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We understand your position and conditioning to defend things in current status quo.

We (Americans looking out for our long term economic interest) just don't agree and want to play our leverage.

You can be from Mars and it doesn't change the point I'm making. It's the losing side of the argument. Free trade is not beneficial to countries when it is unfair with pricing strategies. That is a fact.

You can find the video I posted of Scott Bessent explain that deficit countries ALWAYS win in a trade war. That is our leverage.

People arguing against the Tariffs generally don't seem to be intellectually honest about their efficacy for the countries with leverage and means.
 
Get2choppaaa said:
Navarro also literally went to prison for Trump along with Bannon AND has been one of the only members of the team to have been consistent through out all the drama. He has been Trump's advisor on the China situation and countered Fauci and all the COVID crap.

We understand your position and conditioning to defend things in current status quo.

We (Americans looking out for our long term economic interest) just don't agree and want to play our leverage.

You can be from Mars and it doesn't change the point I'm making. It's the losing side of the argument. Free trade is not beneficial to countries when it is unfair with pricing strategies. That is a fact.

You can find the video I posted of Scott Bessent explain that deficit countries ALWAYS win in a trade war. That is our leverage.

People arguing against the Tariffs generally don't seem to be intellectually honest about their efficacy for the countries with leverage and means.
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The US is in a trade deficit with almost all countries! It used to be common knowledge around here that this was due to the US exploiting the fact that they have the reserve currency still. So the US prints dollars and import real goods for that paper money, that other nations are forced to accept as payment. Now they wanna punish those nations also. (China++ being the most important) I think that's playing with fire a little bit. BRICS is growing stronger, and this will only cement that dynamic.

But we'll just have to wait and see. Trump is all over the place, you never know what he'll do from one day to the next. But I stick to my prediction that; if he upholds the tariffs at the current level or higher it will lead to higher prices, and probably a weaker dollar also. (relative to other major currencies and gold)
 
Johnnyvee said:
The US is in a trade deficit with almost all countries! It used to be common knowledge around here that this was due to the US exploiting the fact that they have the reserve currency still. So the US prints dollars and import real goods for that paper money, that other nations are forced to accept as payment. Now they wanna punish those nations also. (China++ being the most important) I think that's playing with fire a little bit. BRICS is growing stronger, and this will only cement that dynamic.

But we'll just have to wait and see. Trump is all over the place, you never know what he'll do from one day to the next. But I stick to my prediction that; if he upholds the tariffs at the current level or higher it will lead to higher prices, and probably a weaker dollar also. (relative to other major currencies and gold)
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So far your predictions have been piss poor.

You've wined and opined about things that Americans don't agree with and your interests aren't aligned with ours.

I'll put my money in the Trumpian agenda.
 
On the US being economic in terms of trade. There is smart trade, which hopefully Trump and Co. will peruse. Importing can cause a net increase or erosion to your national wealth. Trump and Co. now have the setting to renegotiate smart trade. And there are plenty of indicators that they will be using their leverage to push through political agendas. Musk has been openly supporting what are extreme far-right causes to MSM: AfD, La Penn, South African farmers. Rupert Lowe, Paki rape gangs etc. He put out a video today saying that mass immigration is genocide basically. Trump has been vocally supporting La Pen and South African farmers. The joke "emerging" economy of South Africa has been marginalised. They have been in real GDP per capita decline for years. Time to suck the best people out of there, let them collapse and block any migration from there and other 3rd world s-holes. Musk has also intimated he will throw $250m behind someone in the UK. It looks like that may pivot into a hostile takeover and purge of the Con Party. And there is also a lot of talk of squashing the CCP influence in Canada. Europe and Canada are too corrupt and useless to fix themselves. Some form of takeover is required. It's probably going to have to come out of the US. If the UK was a state of the US it would be the poorest, behind Mississippi with it's ~40% black population. My region of the UK only has something like $33k-35k GDP per capita. Mississippi is at about $53k. The UK has failed, as well as the EU and needs to be annexed. To add to that, your basic provincial town in the UK has a GDP per capita on par with Warsaw. With the growth Poland has been having, it will take over UK GDP per capita in 2033.

I would be very much in favour of a loose confederation of the North - a United States of The North stretching from Anchorage to Vladivostok. Self-interested, taking into account each national interest and culture, intelligently managed to distribute appropriate economic sectors to regions by wealth.

Anyway, back to trade. You can import things from other countries, mainly raw materials and minor goods and use them to create higher-end goods and services - some of which are sold back to the resource providing countries. There are a lot of things that it's not really feasible for the US to do. e.g. textiles - the US imports $144b in textiles, and exports $22b. As such a low-tier sector the feasibility of a $87k GDP per capita country becoming a textile super-power. But it can probably become a mid- and high-end garments. I buy decent Italian trousers for about $125 and hand-made ones for $250. Standard store slop is $30 and mark-up Chinese slop is $80. Buy raw materials from countries in Asia and use that leverage to make them distance themselves from the CCP. Make good quality garmnts in the US and tariff the slave labour slop. Or at least come up with good deals with countries like Italy where you agree to buy their higher quality products. Maybe have US tech titans buy into companies and create new ones to lubricate production. There is so much that can be done, and you can keep more capital in friendly satilite states, rather than continue funding the rise of China.
 
And just like that the 'Ukraine' thing was forgotten, similar to how the 'COVID' thing was big right up until the 'Ukraine' thing started. Circus.

I'm torn on these tariffs. Let me start by saying I'm not American. I'm a European owner of a Trump cap and I still wear my Trump Christmas jumper. You could say I'm somewhat of a fan of the Don, many euros are. Here's what I see with the tariffs.

1. They aren't reciprocal, well not in an apples vs apples sense. The formula given is basically just the trade balance percentage as the other variables amount to one in all cases. Yeah some people are saying VAT, trade barriers etc etc. The US has sales tax, its not as gay as VAT, but its a thing. The US has state level barriers as far as I know also, CA being weird about cars, some states having oddness over alcohol. So Trump is attempting to balance trade, the fluff about it being due to bad tariffs here there and everywhere is just fluff in most cases. Balancing trade, I get that, he was elected for that, the Americans chose well, the sniveling EU worms probably should have bent the knee yesterday.

2. I recall the 80's, my father worked for big US textile mills and ran their operations as they shifted to Ireland [yeah they were screwing the US even back then], then to Turkey, then to India/Bangladesh. Dismal US policies and unfettered greed led to the absolute killing of US industry. Have to admire Trump wanting to bring that industry back. Make stuff in your own country, good policy. Good for normal people, bad for robber barons.

3. Its classic Trump chaos play. Many countries will bend the knee straight away. Some like the EU [not a country, not a flag] will issue the only thing they produce - the standard 'strongly worded statement', I humbly suggest that the US issue a 1000% tariff on this. Trumps genius however is in introducing chaos and market drops, he is quickly lowering the US debt yield, the bulk of which is due soon. The refinance on this will be much cheaper - possibly as much as a trillion a year. Couple this with DOGE and you have a real chance of making meaningful change for the US.

4. It's a shifting in global markets, doesn't feel like it will be as extreme as the talking heads on the n00s suggest. Here's why I think that. High value, low margin things, like cars can be shifted to production in the US, its painful but will happen. Watch VW, BMW, Mercedes scramble. Things like steel, pharma, basic commodities *should* be produced locally. Your Chinese tat wont go away, you would need upwards of 1000% tariffs on these things to make it even slightly worthwhile producing stateside. Luxury goods similarly wont move, the margins on these are as big as the customers wallets.

5. China and most of the developing world will be fine with this, deals will be struck, it will be acknowledged that the US is getting back to the 80s [wonderful!]. The EU will be hammered by this however. They cut of their nose in poking Russia and stopping low cost energy all while getting into bed with Biden and his woke band of losers. They are the exceptional losers in all of this, which is even worse when considered that the EU used to have a bigger GDP than the US, but then quickly sank, and now will crash even further.

6. Short term many things are going to get very expensive in the US. Things that no one actually needs. Your Chinese mop and bucket will still be sold by an American company, it will go up 5%. Food will be the same, maybe more on some exotic stuff, but honestly farmers markets, local organic beef, good wine, you can have great US food, hopefully MAHA sorts out the evil local robber barons. US produced cars, planes, heavy goods will become the number one choice. What will cost more is 'fast fashion', which as the men here know is trash. A well made pair of jeans, coat, or overalls last a decade or more, as I type this on my farm, im wearing 40 year old boots that belonged to my grandfather. High quality is good. Garbage 'tech' will cost more - do we really need new phones each year?

In short I'm not sure these tariffs will stick, they aren't what they are proclaimed as, and the media have it all wrong [as usual]. That said, if Trump pulls off this gamble, its a masterstroke.
 
Johnnyvee said:
Yeah, how many shoe factories are there in the US these days?
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If that was supposed to be a gotcha moment, You're off target - most of my footwear is American made (although materials could have been sourced from abroad), You can easily google which brands maintained production in the US. I've got some foreign made shoes, but not from Asia - from Colombia, for example.
 
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TruckDriver9 said:
If that was supposed to be a gotcha moment, You're off target - most of my footwear is American made (although materials could have been sourced from abroad), You can easily google which brands maintained production in the US. I've got some foreign made shoes, but not from Asia - from Colombia, for example.
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Yea that's apparently our concern now, let other countries leech off of us so that we don't have to pay a few dollars more for shoes or whatever else. Heaven forbid....
 
Johnnyvee said:
I don't know if it's worth replying to that, since it's back to the gotcha mindset again. Extreme fringe point...But for what it's worth, VAT applies evenly, so it's not a tariff again. If you wanna sell a bike in Norway, the VAT is the same (25 percent) whether it's made in the US, Germany or Norway. Also, the agricultural protectionism in Norway does not apply to the rest of Europe again, and is only very theoretically affecting US products.

I really don't think tariffs work. More likely Americans will just have to pay more for clothes, electronics, shoes etc. If you wanna take back manufacturing I think you have to do completely different things.
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You are missing point that was brought up in other threads. There are many countries which take a portion of the VAT revenue and pass it onto their manufacturers either as direct subsidies or as things like subsidized electricity, etc. Also EU countries have import quotas on many things as well as rigorous regulations which impede other countries trying to export to them. As mentioned on the forum as well as by guys like Scott Bessant and others looking at tariffs is just a small part of the trade barriers story. You need to consider other forms of trade barriers such as regulation (customs regulations, licensing, etc), quotas, subsidies, etc.

In Australia an example of our own stupidity is that we are a huge beef exporter and we do export a meaningful amount of beef to the USA due to their current beef production shortages (Biden policies crippled a lot of American farmers). Because our government is run by morons they put up regulatory barriers under the guise of biosecurity to effectively stop American beef imports into Australia. The fact is that the level of American beef imports would have been tiny in Australia because we produce so much we don't need their beef, but now because of our stupidity we gave President Trump an excuse to retaliate against us. Our government in Australia is run by communist muppets and these people need to be taken down a peg.

By the way I am not a Trump fan boy. If he really cared about working class Americans he would shut down the borders and put an end to immigration into America which is destroying the wages of working class and middle class Americans.
 
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