The Syria Thread

Ember

Ember

Orthodox Inquirer
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The GAE is currently using terrorist proxies, Hay’at Tahir al-Sham (HTS) based in Turkey to invade Northern Syria. Aleppo was quickly taken, as the Syrian Army retreated, possibly panicked by the rapid advance of light units around them. The Russian and Syrian Air Forces have been heavily bombing the invaders. The Syrian Army has also been fighting activated sleeper cells in Damascus.

The Kurds are fighting on the side of Syria, and are facing off against HTS in Aleppo.

Now, in the area around Hama, the tide is beginning to turn. The Syrian Arab Army is sweeping back and routing the invaders.

Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, has spoken to the Turkish Foreign minister on the phone. I imagine he was not happy. Never trust the Turks.

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Confirmed advances of the HTS and Syrian Rebels.
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I posted on this here

Thomas More

Post in thread 'The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread'

Labienus said:
It looks like the SAA is holding the line north of Hama and has begun counterattacking.





The terrorists advanced too fast and too deep. Their logistics are stretched and their supply lines are being decimated by the Russian and Syrian air forces.

I think this might get ugly for the terrorists really quickly.
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It's my understanding that 'terrorists' make attacks on civilians, to instill a general fear of death.

Effective attacks on military forces are not terrorist by definition.

Therefore any sources...


I think that if military forces attack other military forces effectively, they're not really terrorist forces.

I understand that the US government calls its adversaries terrorist, but I don't think that's a valid endorsement for using that term to describe military forces attacking other military forces.
 
Trump has commented on the Syria situation directly in a long tweet, while claiming at the same time that Russia has lost 600,000 soldiers in the Ukraine war. Wonder where he got that figure.



"Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad. Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
 
Caduceus said:
...while claiming at the same time that Russia has lost 600,000 soldiers in the Ukraine war. Wonder where he got that figure.
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I don't know about the numbers for Russia, but he probably got the figure from the UK Ministry of Defence.



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www.huffingtonpost.co.uk

Russia On Course For Record Monthly Casualty Rate In Ukraine War, Says UK

The assessment came as the conflict enters its 1,000th day.
www.huffingtonpost.co.uk www.huffingtonpost.co.uk
 
^The numbers and analyses from these British sources are complete BS. More like complete projection, in that they are a good estimate of actual Ukrainian losses.

As to Syria, I think Damascus is going to fall next week or shortly after, it can't stand too long cut off from both the north and the south. The sunni middle class in the main cities (Aleppo and Damascus) went from lukewarm support for Assad to Assad fatigue after their economy has been hollowed out for half a decade.

Assad will probably retreat to the Alawite redoubt on the coast, he has geography and tribal politics on his side as the region is protected by a mountain ridge. He also has the Russian air force. It is not likely that the jihadis will break through that, they will probably be too busy absorbing and consolidating their gains.

There is a lot of uncertainty as far as the rebels leadership and future cohesion of their coalition once Assad is ousted from Damascus. Important markers to look for this winter:

-Whether the rebels will persecute the Christian minorities in Aleppo, Damascus and smaller Christian villages.
-Whether the rebel coalition will fray and fights break out between factions.
-Whether the Syrian pound will collapse, and basic infrastructure will keep operating (water, power, fuel, etc)
-Whether the Israelis are going to move in and carve out a "buffer zone" beyond the Golan Heights, and the jihadis' reaction to that.
 
Cooper said:
^The numbers and analyses from these British sources are complete BS. More like complete projection, in that they are a good estimate of actual Ukrainian losses.

As to Syria, I think Damascus is going to fall next week or shortly after, it can't stand too long cut off from both the north and the south. The sunni middle class in the main cities (Aleppo and Damascus) went from lukewarm support for Assad to Assad fatigue after their economy has been hollowed out for half a decade.

Assad will probably retreat to the Alawite redoubt on the coast, he has geography and tribal politics on his side as the region is protected by a mountain ridge. He also has the Russian air force. It is not likely that the jihadis will break through that, they will probably be too busy absorbing and consolidating their gains.

There is a lot of uncertainty as far as the rebels leadership and future cohesion of their coalition once Assad is ousted from Damascus. Important markers to look for this winter:

-Whether the rebels will persecute the Christian minorities in Aleppo, Damascus and smaller Christian villages.
-Whether the rebel coalition will fray and fights break out between factions.
-Whether the Syrian pound will collapse, and basic infrastructure will keep operating (water, power, fuel, etc)
-Whether the Israelis are going to move in and carve out a "buffer zone" beyond the Golan Heights, and the jihadis' reaction to that.
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Get2choppaaa said:
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That "Assad house tour" video looks real weird.
There is zero personal items anywhere, the place looks like no one has lived there in at least a year, some of the furniture is covered in sheets, and it just looks empty everywhere...even the bathrooms have nothing in them. Weirdest of all I counted at least 3 different very outdated tube televisions that are at least 20 years old, if not older.
 
Prime minister remains in Syria and ready to hand over power.


Statement issued by Mohammad Ghazi Al-Jalali, Prime Minister in the government of the ex-pres Bashar Al-Assad.- I will not leave Syria, I do not know any other country.- We extend our hand to every citizen who is keen to preserve the country.- We want to ensure the continuity of the work of state institutions and security for all.- I want everyone to think rationally and we extend our hand to the opposition.- Syria is for all Syrians.- We are ready to hand over power smoothly.
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