The India- Pakistan Conflict Thread

LaAguilaNegra

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On April 22 26 Hindu tourists were shot dead by Muslim terrorists in Pahangam, Indian Kashmir. 5 armed attackers descended from the mountains and purposely singled out non Muslims by demanding that the victims recite Quranic verses - those who couldn't were shot dead.

Indian intelligence agencies are certain the perpetrators were aided, funded and abetted by Pakistani supported terror groups. Pakistan vehemently denies these allegations and says the attackers were simply Kashmiri separatists, and they have nothing to do with it. In the Pahalgam case the focus is on Lashkar e Taiba, which according to the Indians is protected and funded by the Pakistani ISI intel agency - these are the guys who also handled the Taliban 2001-2021. LeT leader Hafez Saeed is currently under house arrest after US pressure. Lashkar e Taiba initially took credit for the Pahangam operation, but on April 27 withdrew that statement.

Since their independence in the 40s India and Pakistan have fought 4 wars over Jammu and Kashmir, with a whole set of smaller scale border clashes on top of that (last one in 2019). Every day there are ceasefire violations on the LoC. In addition to that India and China have been in several conflicts over parts of Kashmir as well, and in 1962 India lost Aksai Chin to the Chinese. The Kashmir region is one of the most militarized areas of the world, in Indian Kashmir there are 700 000 soldiers and paramilitary forces alone.

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Modi has come out very strongly stating that he will pursue the perpetrators wherever they are, and has given the Army a carte blanche. After all the tough talk and building up expectations Modi has to make a move - even if it's only a cosmetic one. Suspending the Indus Water Treaty is a big move, everything else has been weak. Air strikes on targets in Pakistani Kashmir should be a bare minimum.



Modi gives the Indian Army a free hand to strike

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Pakistani minister threatening India with nukes

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US is urging restraint.

 
India would appear to have a larger strategic advantage, because they are trading partners with both Russia and America. Pakistan is just friends with America. So even if America refuses to provide arms to either party, India can still buy from Russia.

That said, if Pakistan is insane enough to use nukes then China would probably get involved and consider nuking Pakistan themselves, it's a major threat right very close by.
 
India would appear to have a larger strategic advantage, because they are trading partners with both Russia and America. Pakistan is just friends with America. So even if America refuses to provide arms to either party, India can still buy from Russia.

That said, if Pakistan is insane enough to use nukes then China would probably get involved and consider nuking Pakistan themselves, it's a major threat right very close by.

Pakistan is allied with China, and a close partner in the Belt and Road Initiative. Pakistan however is also somewhat of a US vassal simultaneously, the US runs its deep state.

Islamic terror in and around Pakistan is mostly propped up by the US deep state, same as for the jihadi headchoppers across Africa and the Middle East. The goal of this terror operation is to destabilize the region and pry off India from BRICS and worsen relations between India and China. Destabilizing Pakistan also affects Iran, with which Pakistan shares a large border, Iran being the primary GAE target these days.
 
The Indian military has launched Operation Sindoor, and struck several Pakistani sites in both Pakistani held Kashmir and Pakistan proper. The strikes in Pakistan proper are somewhat of an escalation.

The strikes were relatively few in number and targeted infrastructure related to Laskhar e Taiba and Jaish e Mohammad, two organizations on multiple terror lists. At least 5 people were killed. 9 sites were and the Indians allegedly used BrahMos ballistic missiles.

The Pakistani government has vowed a tough response which is currently underway.

So far the timeline and dynamics resemble 2019, when a similar stand off happened. In 2019 Pakistan supported groups ambushed an Indian Army convoy in Kashmir killing 40, and after some threats and diplomatic back and forths, India struck Pakistan which led to a Pakistani retaliation. Tensions were high but eventually it fizzled out due to international pressure and calmer heads prevailing.


Official Indian communique on today's strike.

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Map of Indian targets.
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Indian impact



Pakistani retaliation underway, unclear what the shape, size or form is.



Trump with a first reaction:

 
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Rather eventful evening,

- The Indian strikes targeted the homes and madrassas of high ranking individuals of JeM and LeT leading to a high number of civilian deaths (40+)

- During the night and subsequent fog of war Pakistani outlets claimed their fighters and AD systems had downed multiple modern Indian jets. Initially these claim were met with laughter, until the footage and Indian admission came out that 'three aircraft had crashed'

The Pakistani side claims it downed 1. a Mirage 2000, 2. an Su-30MKI, 3. a Dassault Rafale. 4. a Mig-29, 5. a Mig-29 and some UAV and quadcopters to boot.

About 3-4 confirmed kills. Absolutely embarrassing for the Indian side.

- After the missile strike artillery duels increased in severity, the Indians claim 12 Indian citizens were killed by Pakistani artillery in the Poonch sector

- Neither side had made admissions about military casualties.

- Pakistani airspace will be closed for the next 48 hours, likewise India is closing multiple air routes along its Western border

- The big one, the Pakistani Security Council has been authorized to respond to the Indian aggression meaning that a Pakistani response will come.







Airspace in Pakistan and Western India

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Updated visual on Operation Sindoor. Ordnance were SCALP cruise missiles and HAMMER precision guided minutions launched from Rafale jets within Indian airspace.

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I just hope we won't be flooded by millions of Pakis/Pajeets claiming war refugee status.
I was just about to say this. These numbers could easily reach 30-100 million, depending on the severity of the situation.

Edit: Also, I'm assuming the EU sides with Pakistan, given that India is part of Brics. So, yea, more military aid and inflation.
 
I was just about to say this. These numbers could easily reach 30-100 million, depending on the severity of the situation.

Edit: Also, I'm assuming the EU sides with Pakistan, given that India is part of Brics. So, yea, more military aid and inflation.

India is the bad boy of BRICS, they have too many issues with China, and is also a much bigger market than Pakistan, which is becoming an economic satellite of China. India has got to be France's largest weapons export market for example.

Incidentally, if Pakistan really downed a Rafale, that's bad for Dassault's business, because that plane was supposed to have a lot of EW countermeasures. It would be interesting to see what the Paks used to shoot them down.

edit: more details emerging, likely air to air Pak victories with the Chinese PL-15 long range missile:



 
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I was just about to say this. These numbers could easily reach 30-100 million, depending on the severity of the situation.

Edit: Also, I'm assuming the EU sides with Pakistan, given that India is part of Brics. So, yea, more military aid and inflation.

It's not black and white. Least to say that China has strategic partnership with Pakistan. America and Russia have vested interests in both countries, but they're more likely to side with India - US because Pakistan is vital to China, and Russia because India is their top oil importer (and launderer). France sells a lot of military gear to India so they'll side with them as well.
 
It's not black and white. Least to say that China has strategic partnership with Pakistan. America and Russia have vested interests in both countries, but they're more likely to side with India - US because Pakistan is vital to China, and Russia because India is their top oil importer (and launderer). France sells a lot of military gear to India so they'll side with them as well.
I think in many ways it will be like the Iran/Iraq war if it gets seriously hot. The rest of the world will sell to both, and sit back without intervening even if casualties become very high.

It's hard to say though, because the Iran/Iraq war didn't seem to result in massive numbers of refugees arriving in western countries, while it would be very likely with a Pakistani/Indian war. After all, people are already flooding out of these nations without a hot war.

We need to just block immigration and refugees coming from these countries, then let them work things out between themselves.
 
India is the bad boy of BRICS, they have too many issues with China, and is also a much bigger market than Pakistan, which is becoming an economic satellite of China. India has got to be France's largest weapons export market for example.

Incidentally, if Pakistan really downed a Rafale, that's bad for Dassault's business, because that plane was supposed to have a lot of EW countermeasures. It would be interesting to see what the Paks used to shoot them down.

edit: more details emerging, likely air to air Pak victories with the Chinese PL-15 long range missile:





Allegedly, Paki pilots know how to engage Rafael because many served in an exchange program with the Qataris who took delivery of Rafaels before the Indians did
 
Allegedly, Paki pilots know how to engage Rafael because many served in an exchange program with the Qataris who took delivery of Rafaels before the Indians did

Yes, same with the Turks, Qatar flew in its Rafales, showed them the ropes in anticipation of Greece getting a squadron of these jets. .
 
It's more like $100 million each tops, anything over that is for pilot training hours, maintenance, equipment and crews.

Still, big blow to Dassault, and a big win for China. Turns out the winning air force combination is a cheap basic platform like the JF-17 ($30 million) with a big EASA radar and excellent BVR missiles like the Chinese PL-15 or the Russian R-37M.
 
Last night was quieter on the LoC, yet several explosions were reported alongside the border southwards, and later footage showed downed Indian kamikaze and surveillance drones +Pakistani AD interceptors. Unlike Operation Sindoor the Indian military command did not communicate these infiltrations attempts to the Indian public afterwards. The loitering drones are Harop UAVs.

The Pakistani military has so far reported 12 Indian drone intrusions + takedowns, and 4 injuries +1 death.









Informational video about Operation Sindoor.

 
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In addition to the above:

The Indian MoD has released another update, stating that during the night Pakistan attacked Indian military sites in Kashmir and further southwards using drones and ballistic missiles. The Indians engaged the incoming projectiles with their S400 AD system, and the subsequent drone attacks were in response to this Pakistani violation.

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The number of Indian drone attacks has increased to 25. Most were shot down but especially in Lahore several loitering munitions made an impact. Indians claim to have destroyed a HQ9 AD system in Lahore, meanwhile Pakistani claim to have destroyed an S400 system in Ambala.


Confirmed location of Indian drone strikes
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Air sirens in Islamabad



Pakistan AD battery engaging incoming Indian Harop drone



Pakistani military spokesperson:



US communique for its citizens in Lahore, shelter in place of leave

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