Asked Grok to attempt to estimate which top 5 Euro countries that are on a trajectory to become a white minority first. There's a lot of assumptions here, most notably that immigration must stay the same (or get worse) and that non-white migrants don't go back etc. It attempts to calculate white vs non-white birth rates within nations based on limited data...
Ireland: The native white population in Ireland is projected to become a minority by 2045–2050. With a 2025 population of 5.3 million (87% white, 4.6 million), the national TFR is 1.65 (2023), with an estimated white TFR of ~1.5 and non-white TFR of ~2.0 (first- and second-generation African/Asian). Non-white births account for ~18% (9,000 of 50,000 births), including 5% from second-generation non-white natives. Immigration of ~35,000/year (70% non-white, ~24,500) drives rapid change. The key driver is Ireland’s small population, which amplifies the impact of non-white immigration and birth share growth (40% by 2040), making the demographic shift faster than in larger countries.
Sweden: Sweden’s native white population is expected to become a minority by 2050–2055. Starting with 10.5 million in 2025 (82% white, 8.6 million), the national TFR is 1.45 (2023), with a white TFR of ~1.3 and non-white TFR of ~2.0 (Middle Eastern/African). Non-white births constitute ~25% (25,000 of 100,000 births), including 8% from second-generation natives. Immigration of ~60,000/year (80% non-white, ~48,000) fuels growth. The key driver is the high non-white birth share (45% by 2045), including second-generation contributions, and significant immigration, accelerating the white share’s decline.
Belgium: Belgium’s native white population is projected to reach minority status by 2050–2055. With 11.7 million in 2025 (82% white, 9.6 million), the national TFR is 1.54 (2023), with a white TFR of ~1.4 and non-white TFR of ~2.1 (North African/Turkish). Non-white births are ~25% (27,500 of 110,000 births), including ~7% from second-generation natives. Immigration of ~50,000/year (70% non-white, ~35,000) supports the shift. The key driver is diverse youth cohorts, with significant second-generation non-white births, and steady non-European immigration, hastening the white share’s reduction.
United Kingdom: The United Kingdom’s native white population is anticipated to become a minority by 2050–2055. From a 2025 population of 68 million (81% white, 55 million), the national TFR is 1.61 (2021), with a white TFR of ~1.4 and non-white TFR of ~2.0 (South Asian/African). Non-white births make up ~27% (162,000 of 600,000 births), including 10% from second-generation natives. Immigration of ~300,000/year (70% non-white, ~210,000) is a major factor. The key driver is high immigration volume and a substantial non-white birth share (45% by 2045), including second-generation contributions, offsetting the larger population’s slower shift.
France: France’s native white population is projected to become a minority by 2060–2070. With 68.6 million in 2025 (88% white, 60.4 million), the national TFR is 1.68 (2023), with a white TFR of ~1.61 and non-white TFR of ~2.2 (North/Sub-Saharan African). Non-white births are ~18% (90,000 of 503,000 births), including ~5% from second-generation natives. Immigration of ~200,000/year (60% non-white, ~120,000) contributes steadily. The key driver is France’s large population, which delays the shift despite non-white births growing to ~40% by 2050, with second-generation births adding to the gradual change.