You don't have a choice when the money supply increases closer to 12% than whatever other measure/metric they lie about.
Stock Market Thread
- Thread starter Australia Sucks
- Start date
It comes down to market timing and where you think we are in the long-term cycle. It becomes a case of do you eat 8% annual losses (monetary inflation rate minus fixed income yields) waiting for a market crash of 50% so you can buy undervalued assets or do you hold your nose and dive in hoping the gains you make between now and the time of the crash will outweigh the draw-down incurred during the next crash. Buffet has chosen the first option of being cashed up and eating the annual inflationary losses while waiting for the downturn.
It is baffeling to me to see all these JQ redpilled men still playing JQ money games. Is the system collapsing or not? Is globohomo in full effect or not? Do you honestly see a reversal in the negative trends we shed light onto here everyday? Then why aren't more men cashing in, taking what money they have and running, and going with an off-grid agrarian Amish style Matrix-free monastic option? Is the electrical/infrastructure grid crumbling while it's ability to be weaponized via AI-super-computer hacking is increasing? Is the food supply being increasingly poisoned and limited? Thinking your 401-jew-K or bitcoin is going to forever go up and that women are going to wake up soon and see the error of their pro-homo anti-feminine ways is a pipe dream. And choosing the slow political route of dealing with the jews instead of immediate verbal assault and quite possibly a well regulated militia low grade guerilla tactic civil war is naive at best and certain doom at worst.
This is not a blackpill. This is a truthpill.
Get. Out. Now. The writing is on the wall. Analyze it correctly. Hopium cannot save you.
Cash is still (at least temporarily) king, possession is 9/10ths of the law, buy large swaths of forested wilderness land with swift flowing creeks and tools of survival and give up on your addiction to gambling with your money. Start preparing your life in a way that is not dependent on women and money in order for you to grow and thrive. We can no longer change the system by continuing to participate in it. Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.
You say the same stuff over and over, and you aren't wrong on it all, but you lack any reasonable risk assessment. I don't even think you can calculate it or calibrate it, to be honest, I've seen the histrionics too much over all your posts. If I'm doing well and can be in certain areas and not in others, and can maximize the system to my advantage at this point, why wouldn't I? I'm still top 10 in fitness, investment, knowledge, etc.
Doomers don't have a track record. Notice I didn't even say "good" there.
I don't think the future is bright either, but it's like the goldbugs telling you there stupid coins (and I own some) will be some sort of respite when cockroaches are all that's left. It's insanely stupid, when you actually think about it.
Palsofchaos
Catholic
I’m holding some Walmart that I’m thinking of selling. Walmart gets about 10% of its revenue from goods imported from China. It’s made a little recovery since the tariff announcements and may be a good exit point.
Have any of you guys tried any AI algorithmic trading systems/software? They are advertised here and there but it's hard to trust them. Thoughts?
Anything good is hoarded by top tier hedge funds. Anything the public has access to is garbage.
Walmart is projected by analysts to grow its earnings per share by around 9.1% per annum over the next 5 years (that forecast seems optimistic to be honest) and yet the stock is trading at a p.e. of 40. Just for reference from 2009 to 2025 Walmart grew its earnings per share by around 5.6% per annum compound.
Now its a larger company so it would be harder to grow at the same rate so I think the 9% projected earnings per share growth is very optimistic.
Walmart stock would have to drop at least 50% to get back to a normal valuation. In 2009 when stocks were still depressed from the global financial crises Walmart was selling at a price to earnings ratio of under 12 (compared to 40 today).
Most of the large cap US stocks are very overvalued because of the whole world putting passive inflows into the S&P 500. Pension funds in the USA, Australia, England, Canada, Japan, Germany, Norway, etc are generally putting a percentage of their monthly inflows from workers into passive index funds that buy the S&P 500 and thus the natural buyers greatly outpace the natural sellers of the S&P 500 stocks meaning they generally keep pushing higher over time despite enormous overvaluation.
Am I the only one that finds it's strange that the sell-off seems to be retail driven? Seems like so many meme/retail darlings getting hit hard.
It's the TGA decrease in liquidity, same thing for BTC lag/lull.
By the way, can anyone who knows about the IRS handling of dividends/taxes on return of capital investments, tell me what happens after the cost basis goes down? Here's a very interesting case of tax deferred dividends that has been also offered with other high % yield ETFs in the past: Strategy's STRC.
It gives you currently about 10.25% yield, paid monthly for a year. Let's say you invest $100k and get paid ~10k for the year. I've been told that your basis decreases all the way until you get to $0, at which time you have to pay a LTCG rate, after the 10 years roughly that you got paid the 10%.
Do you pay, let's say, 15% on that 100k in year 10 then? Maybe @Diop knows this.
Interesting what happens when shutdown ends and all the liquidity goes back, plus there is possible repo related intervention ahead, supposedly, because repo rates are acting up, they say its similar to the end of 2019.
I believe if ETF or company pays out as "return of capital distribution", instead of dividend, which can happen if they do not have earnings or pay out in excess of earnings, it is not a taxable event and this indeed reduces cost basis (the portion of payout in excess of earnings). After cost basis reaches $0, it's capital gains tax on further distributions. So if year 11 you got paid 10k, you pay LT cap gains on this amount. When you eventually sell your shares, you pay cap gains on proceeds minus 0, which is the new tax basis. It all is still taxed, just the matter of what your income brackets and timing make more favorable, a deferred tax.
That would then bring this question up:
You invest 1M into STRC. You get paid 100k for 10 years. Ok, so now you have your money back, but you do also have an extra 1M. Does that mean if you sell it all, and then re-buy in a month you can claim that it was "return of capital" and then just a wash sale? I would find it hard to believe that they wouldn't claim that you returned your capital and got an extra 1M over the ten years (what happened), thus you owe cap gains on the 1M.
You mean to claim it was not a return of capital?
Official IRS definition of wash sale is selling at a loss before/aftee re-buying within 30 days.
STRC hovers around $100, if you sold at a loss and rebought broker could mark as W but could be correctly marked as well, brokers aren't always 100% correct, but wash sale only means you can't claim deduction for the loss. If you failed to pay cap gains tax on that sale my guess if it was $100 it might have went unnoticed but 1M could generate a lot more interest. Technically you are only holding 100% unrealized cap gain after 10 years just waiting to be realized
I don't see what it does for you then that makes it all that different. You do get the nice return without very much risk, but you still have to pay taxes on it. My thing with MSTR is that the common shares are going to outdo all the rest and it won't be close, you're essentially just going against Saylor who will take that trade all day, and pay you a smaller amount since you're afraid.
May be makes sense for tax deferral, say if someone will be retiring later and their tax brackets will be changing. Also, reinvested cap distributions compound while untaxed, reinvested dividends get taxed.
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The flaw in the article is he proclaiming that stock market growth in the last decades was a bubble. If you plot S&P chart against USD money supply you can see S&P was barely keeping up with supply expansion, rising above a bit or falling below some, in market cycles. The mean/average shows pretty much neutral movement against money supply. So it was just barely staying on top of inflation. There is no bubble or, rather bubble is in USD, not in asset markets. Not really comparable to Japan, as he makes the comparison, where PE ratios were insane pre- collapse, US market does not come anywhere close to those ratios. S&P is the savings account for many. Bubble may be is in excessive consumption levels and credit, along with USD (well much of USD is credit).
This fact is missed all the time; you'll see this ignorance in the BTC thread as well.
A good video on the AI Bubble. I am glad I am not the only one who looks at Sam Altman and says "that guy is a total scam artist".
Interesting channel, but with all due respect the guy is super fruity. Like what is even that mustache, sitting on those baboon lips? You have any background on this guy? Youtube is already crawling with homos, I can't be watching homos, it's not good for the psyche. These guys feminize themselves subtly and your subconscious picks up on it, slowly normalizing it.
Anyway, seems like this round of Jew fundraiser - AI, is coming to a close. They're going to keep spanking these dip buyers until they figure out other sectors exist. I guess daily gains from 5-year forecasts is unsustainable.