How serious is the secessionist movement in South Africa, how does the general White population+other Cape located minorities perceive this idea and are there any serious parties and political initiatives working towards goal?
Asking this because per usual those representating Afrikaners - or at least claiming to do so (Democratic Alliance) do not support this idea and instead pay lip service to milquetoast ideas on West Cape autonomy on the grounds of equality of all before the law.
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In short, the only way I see a Cape independence movement get off the ground is if the US throws it weight behind it to mess up and/or gain leverage on the South African entity that has become increasingly hostile to DC over the years.
Which might seem farfetched now but is not entirely out of the question. Using sectarian, ethnic and cultural break lines in hostile countries to create internal division has been tried and tested. So far I see very little movement on the Ramaphosa regime's side indicating they want to pull their turd back in.
A regional independence movement carried by Boers, Anglos, Coloreds and other minorities would focus on the Cape Provinces due to preferable demographics in that area. That leads to the next problem. The Boers are farmers and most of South African fertile lands are not in the Cape Provinces which are arid and not suitable for farming. What's going to happen to the millions of Boers in the former Boer Republics Transvaal, Orange Free State, Natalia?
They live in a sea of hostile Blacks but have their businesses and assets to run in those areas. Often with deep ties in those communities.
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Overall the idea just seems messy and akin to opening a can of worms. The ANC/EFF goons won't stand for it and consider it a frontal attack on South Africa's sovereignty and 35 year old Rainbow Nation Project. A de facto declaration of war. A sentiment that will no doubt be echoed in Moscow and Beijing which will not look forward to the creation of a US supported and friendly de facto state on what is technically South African soil.