"So let's talk about the Arctic.
Russia is positioning the Northern Sea Route as a key global shipping lane, which it controls almost entirely. This route significantly shortens transit times between Europe and Asia. With improved infrastructure and receding ice, the NSR is superior to the Suez Canal - not only shorter (and therefore cheaper, and becoming cheaper with the infrastructure improvements), but also there are no queues, no tolls and no pirates or Houthis.
The melting ice also makes it easier to exploit natural resources in the Arctic circle, and they are estimated to be enormous: 15% of the world's undiscovered oil, 30% of the world's undiscovered natural gas (those numbers come from the US Geological Survey iirc). There are also other strategic resources such as rare earth elements.
Russia has been developing oil and natural gas reserves in the Russian parts of the Arctic, particularly in areas like the Yamal Peninsula and the Kara Sea. Diversifying energy export routes is CRITICAL for Russia moving towards the mid-21st century. Projects like the Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 are absolutely crucial to Russian economic strategy, and these projects also involve partnership with China -- of course, Russia is China's only gateway to the Arctic, so they are highly interested in cooperation.
In recent years, Russia has reopened or a bunch of old Soviet scientific and military bases across the Arctic, particularly the Arctic Shamrock base on Alexandra Land. We're also testing many of our newest weaponry in the Arctic and even basing it there, such as the S-500 air defence system and various missiles (Bastion, Tsirkon). We are operating a respectable fleet of nuclear subs in the Arctic Ocean, too.
Currently, Russia has an edge over everyone else in the Arctic -- we own the largest portion of it, we operate the world's largest and most advanced fleet of icebreakers (including the INCREDIBLY cool nuclear-powered ones), we have been heavily investing in both military and civilian infrastructure in the region.
The Americans would obviously love to challenge Russia in the Arctic Circle. Oh, I forgot to mention -- the whole area is critical for all WW3 Armageddon planning, because the shortest flight path for ICBM exchanges also crosses the North Pole. The US don't want Russia to control an important global shipping lane, and they want those natural resources for themselves. They have been trying to invest in Alaskan infrastructure but efforts have been meh.
America is lagging behind when it comes to icebreakers and military capabilities in the area, though they have e.g. the "Arctic Edge" and "Cold Response" exercises.
It's clear that things like direct control over the Northwest Passage and being able to project naval power from Greenland would be highly desirable for the US in the long term. Allies and puppets are great but for "saving a floundering hegemony" and WW3 purposes direct control is always better.
In any case, the Arctic will be one of the most important strategic regions of the 21st century, and competition will be fierce. Also, we really should work on the Spitsbergen/Svalbard question..."
