I guess they might soon figure out that May and September is where it's at. Just saw an article yesterday about how in Europe peak tourist season is shifting from summer to those fringe seasons because main summer season is too packed and hot. With beach tourism the shift might be less pronounced, as water temperatures are colder, warm enough for many people though. 23-25C is perfectly warm water, I have to swim in colder water usually.
Moving to Montenegro
- Thread starter Tippy
- Start date
Yet tourism has been falling since 2020. People are getting poorer, less international tourists. I think it will cancel out.
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You may be right. For a long time, tourism became more and more popular as technology improved. The Internet made planning and booking trips super easy, and aviation advances and deregulation made flights cheap. Flying used to cost a small fortune before the 2000s.
But now with the general decline of living standards in the West, people just don't have as much spare cash laying around anymore so I expect a change. The only exception is top 10%. So luxury travel will continue to flourish.
I wish it was the case but looking at long term trends I think it will only increase and expand worldwide, spreading out even wider from its current centers. Things tend happen in waves with temporary slumps. I think eventually flights will get cheaper and tourism will become even more popular because more information reaches the masses who are still not involved in international travel. There are billions of people for that industry to tap into. This current tourism boom is partly engineered, with youtube, instagram, etc promoting various destinations, airbnbs making travel easier, massive marketing and hype. This industry is looking to expand.
It is true about people getting poorer but seems its more like a growing divide in wealth with many having plenty of money for travel and toys, also people tend to use credit cards for their recreation getting in debt. It reminds me how I was able to spend wonderful time around Lake Tahoe during Great Recession, with tourism slumping and things being affordable and uncrowded, little did I know about insane wave of tourism and relocation only several years ahead, now I would not even drive anywhere in that region because of crowds. I am watching some locations I planned to relocate to being devoured by tourism, industry making big plans, investing into tourist infrastructure, they are not making those long term investment decisions for no reason
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The thing with people getting poorer, they just chose cheaper destinations and traveling during off season when pricing is lower. They also sometimes chose cheaper modes of travel like hostels and public transport. The locations that had reached peak pricing and crowds might stay stable in this regard but tourism only expands wider around these locations or goes into newly "discovered" destinations. I bring up Great Recession above, when a lot of places were uncrowded and cheap, but what followed in the next decade was madness. Places getting "discovered" and flooded by people, I had seen it with much of the US West. It is scenic places, places having some attractions and places with nice climate that are on that trend. Not just tourism but mass relocation too. Tourism industry cycle for a destination is long, usually at least 50 years long, I believe, because of investment in infrastructure around the place that comes after discovery and hype stages. Barring major war, things will be getting only more packed. Even after war, things can get packed fast like in Balcans. Then there are billions living in India who are not traveling now and their standards of living are projected to increase, they will be traveling all over.
For the last couple of years local news ran articles saying that tourism has fallen almost 20% across Balkan coast.
In global news it says record tourist arrivals happened in 2024, in the Western Balkans. May be it depends on the country.
I think a small slump is expected because Albania alone had added 53% more tourists between 2019 and 2023, this is explosive growth and some temporary slump usually follows
It won't be temporary decline when you'll have global recession coming in like a freight train.
Yes but global recession is temporary. Recessions in the current economic system last may be 2-5, max 10 years. There are booms after recessions, usually.
Media often tries to convince people of terrible endless recession ahead, the purpose is usually for people to dump assets so that the rich and other investors can buy them on the cheap. So I woud be vary of doom predictions
You are delusional. Have you heard about WEF's plan to make everyone dirt poor?
I dont but scaremongering hype, usually the purpose is for "plebes" to dump assets or currency, they get bought up by those who knowingly scaremonger. Life is what you make it. Beleiving scare hype about killer recession is exactly the tool that can lead to the mentioned wef plans becoming reality.
You are deluded indeed. Have you been living under a rock for the last five years? Educate yourself. Your financial well-being is dependent on the financial oligarchs. They make the rules. Hoping for the best won't do you anything when they introduce a system designed to make you a permanent slave.
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^Montenegro is practically deserted, with a population of only 620k, it has one of the lowest population densities in Europe. I am not sure if it has a lot of industry, but it is likely dependent on the tourist industry given the size of the population.
This means that you can find cheap housing where the locals live in areas not too impacted by tourism. Or perhaps you can also buy in touristy areas, as Montenegro is not as "discovered" as say Croatia, though you would have to vet property rights and taxation for expats first. I would scout naturally beautiful areas on or near the coast that aren't yet developed.
This means that you can find cheap housing where the locals live in areas not too impacted by tourism. Or perhaps you can also buy in touristy areas, as Montenegro is not as "discovered" as say Croatia, though you would have to vet property rights and taxation for expats first. I would scout naturally beautiful areas on or near the coast that aren't yet developed.
Global tourism is projected to increase 40% by 2030, this is pretty much industry consensus, and surpass 2 billion international travelers. Think of all the still untapped Chinese citizens and entire India, Global South is expected to be the main driving force behind future increase in international tourism. I am certainly making my own relocation decisions taking this forecast into account, it sounds about right (I do not want to be in or near touristy areas)
Most of the Indian and Chinese tourists will gravitate around SE Asia. European tourism though will rise significantly as in W Europe GenX cohorts are bigger than the Boomer cohorts, there will be a lot of German, French, British new Gen X retirees in the next decade, while the Boomers will become too old to travel.