

Why a protracted conflict is Israel’s WORST OPTION
Israel is unlikely to win a war of attrition against Iran, which has time on its side and a full arsenal of tools at its disposal.
So what are the countries’ relative weights?
Iran

Population: 90M

Territory: 1.6M sq km

Economy size: $460B (nominal, 2025)

Military size: 600K active-duty troops plus 200K IRGC
Israel

Population: 9.5M

Territory: 22,000 sq km

Economy size: $583B (nominal, 2025)

Military size: 170K active-duty troops
Major factors at play

Landmass: Israel is at a disadvantage, while Iran can spread forces over vast distances, lowering the risk of mass losses.

Costly air power: Israel’s economy relies heavily on an expensive air force, which forms the core of its military efforts.

Military spending is eating away at the economy: Israel's defense costs surged 65% in 2024 to $46.5 billion — the largest jump since 1967 — driven by conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen.

Vulnerable infrastructure: Yemen’s blockade bankrupted Eilat Port in 2024; ongoing attacks could cripple Israel’s economy, as its air defenses can’t stop all Iranian strikes.

Economic risks: Further escalation may sharply slow Iran’s GDP growth, while Israel risks slipping into recession.
Iran's wild card

If Israel keeps targeting Iran’s oil facilities, Iran may threaten to block the Strait of Hormuz, potentially triggering a global energy crisis.
Will the US enter the Iran-Israel conflict?

Main limits: US public war fatigue and rising instability in oil production and key logistics, especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz.