Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

LaAguilaNegra

LaAguilaNegra

Other Christian
Heritage
The UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, has declared Iran in non compliance with its nuclear safeguards, Board of Governors approved the Resolution 19-3 and 11 abstentions. The IAEA says Iran violated non proliferation duties by failing to cooperate on undeclared nuclear sites since 2019. This in laymen terms means the IAEA is alleging that Iran enriching uranium for military use and not civil use.



Iran's Atomic Energy Association has immediately announced a response, it will

1.Open a new enrichment site at a yet undisclosed location and

2.Upgrade centrifuges at Fordow: Iran will replace its older Generation 1 (IR-1) centrifuges at the underground Fordow enrichment site with advanced Generation 6 (IR-6) centrifuges.

 
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According to CBS News, U.S. officials have been told Israel is now “fully ready” to launch an operation into Iran, with this being a primary reason for the announced evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and General Consulate in Erbil, as well as the departure of military dependents from the Middle East. U.S. officials are concerned that Iran could launch attacks against U.S. bases and assets in the region in response to a strike against its nuclear facilities by Israel.
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The U.S. State Department has just posted a security alert for U.S. citizens in the Middle East and North Africa, advising them to exercise increased caution, while adding that travel disruptions and increased security concerns for U.S. citizens in the region have resulted from similar tensions in the past between Israel and Iran.


Security Alert: U.S. Embassy Jerusalem (June 12, 2025)

Location: Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza

Event: Security Alert

Due to the increased regional tensions, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from travel outside the greater Tel Aviv (including Herzliya, Netanya, and Even Yehuda), Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice. Transit between these three areas, including to and from Ben Gurion Airport, is authorized. Transiting Route 1 to and from Allenby Bridge is also permitted.

The U.S. Embassy reminds U.S. citizens of the continued need for caution and increased personal security awareness – including knowing the location of the nearest shelter in the event of a red alert as security incidents, including mortar, rocket, and missile fire, and unmanned aircraft system (UAS) intrusions, often take place without any warning. The security environment is complex and can change quickly.

This is provided for your information as you make your own security plans.

In response to security incidents and without advance notice, the U.S. Embassy may further restrict or prohibit U.S. government employees and their family members from traveling to certain areas of Israel (including the Old City of Jerusalem) and the West Bank.

U.S. citizens can find additional information regarding steps to take in case of mortar and rocket fire and hostile aircraft intrusion in the Country Information for Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza:

Mortar and Rocket Fire or Hostile Aircraft Intrusion: In the event of mortar or rocket fire or Hostile Aircraft Intrusion, a “red alert” siren may be activated. Treat all such alerts as real. Follow the instructions from local authorities and seek shelter immediately. Know the location of your closest shelter or protected space. U.S. government personnel and their family members may be restricted from traveling to areas affected by rocket activity, sirens, and/or the opening of bomb shelters. For additional information on appropriate action to take upon hearing a siren or explosion, see the Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command website (available on devices within Israel) or view the Preparedness Information. U.S. citizens may also wish to download the free Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command application on Android or Apple devices to receive real-time security and safety alerts. Free commercial applications, such as Red Alert: Israel, are also available.




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According to a classified Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) advisory obtained via open-source intel:Israel has issued an ultimatum to both the U.S. and Iran: A nuclear deal must be reached by Sunday, or Israel may initiate military action against Iran.The advisory warns:• Diplomatic talks have stalled• Rhetoric and tensions are escalating• Risk of conflict spilling into the maritime domain (Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Sea)• Threats from regional actors like the Houthis increase risk of wider warArea of Concern: Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Northern Arabian SeaThreat Level: ElevatedA short “operational pause” is in effect to allow diplomacy—until Sunday.
 
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"Based on open-source media, Israeli authorities forwarded an ultimatum to both Iran and the United States, stating that a nuclear agreement must be reached by Sunday between the two countries. If not, Israeli leadership has an intent to initiate military action against Iran. The statement introduces a short operational pause until Sunday to allow diplomatic efforts.
Currently, there is no indication that the maritime nexus is changed. JMIC continues to monitor the situation closely and will provide timely updates accordingly if there should be any changes."
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Cooper said:
The only way Israel can win here is if they had another trick up their sleeve, perhaps hidden booby traps in underground weapon storage facilities, or micronukes inside Iranian nuclear installations. Otherwise it is going to be a tall order for them.
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They probably do but it's not going to be anywhere near as easy as dealing with Lebanon.

en.m.wikipedia.org

2020 Beirut explosion - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
magoo said:
The war already started. Israel is launching preemptive strikes in Iran.
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Probably strikes meant to bait the Iranian leadership into retaliation which will then be used to push for an increasingly cooperative US position. Likewise the 6th round of US- Iran talks are still scheduled for Sunday in Muscat, those might not survive today's strikes either.

Either way an Iranian non-response will be the final deathblow for their deterrence, especially after they had Israel roll up their Axis of Resistance project in barely 12 months at a minimum Israeli loss. Kinda like how Tehran quietly shelved Operation True Promise 3 and hoped noone would notice. The Iranians simply have to put their feet in the sand this time, and hope that the Trump Administration has enough clout to convince the Likudniks that war is not anyone's best interest. Also carefully telegraphed billion dollar firework shows like the 2020 Operation Martyr Soleimani and 2024 True Promise 1+2 don't count, this time they'll actually will have to go an eye for an eye.
 
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