Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

A breakdown of the US expeditionary group of three ships, USS Boxer, Portland, and Comstock. If the USS Boxer is taken out, the entire landing force could be wiped.




This 'we don't need the Strait of Hormuz' messaging from Trump is coming over as an attempt to get the Iranians to lower their guard there. An assault on Kharg will have no naval support and not achieve anything worthwhile. It has to be the Straight, if any action is to be launched.

 

The U.S. and Israel have intelligence that suggests Mojtaba remains alive — for example, evidence of Iranian officials trying to schedule in-person meetings with him (unsuccessfully, due to security concerns).

  • The mystery around Mojtaba has come up during several of President Trump's intelligence briefings. Trump's national security team is still working to assess who is actually in charge in Tehran, a U.S. official said.
  • "We have no evidence that he is really the one giving orders," a senior Israeli official told Axios of Mojtaba.
  • "It's beyond weird. We don't think the Iranians would have gone through all this trouble to choose a dead guy as the supreme leader, but at the same time, we have no proof that he is taking the helm," a U.S. official said.
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Reality check: Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, noted that there is no evidence Mojtaba is not functioning, even if his injury and security concerns make it difficult to fully exercise his authority.

  • "Under the current exceptional circumstances, one should not expect him to appear in public, and it is possible that his injury does not even allow him to release a recorded video in order not to expose to the public the severity of his condition," Zimmt said.
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