Geopolitics is zero sum and game theory, noone beats the Israelis (and Americans) in this field. This is ultimately why every supposed coinflip falls Tel Aviv's way, and why with every bout Israel's position strengthens whilst Iran's weakens. It's late already. The Iranians are backed up against a wall and any further concessions - in this case its deterrents, would mean the de facto demilitarization of the regime. The endgame really does feel close. Consider it a game of chess where achieving a checkmate requires advanced plays, thinking ahead and compounding strategies.
Post October 7, 2023 Israel has systemically stripped Iran naked and picked it apart. Notice how with every confrontation the core issue discussed moved towards Tehran's final position. The latest round was 8 months ago during which Israel launched a successful surprise attack to set in motion the trail of dominoes that would eventually lead to the destruction of Iran's nuclear production program. Execution was flawless. And despite Cucker Tarlson and the rest of the clown cart warning about how this would be suicidal and end in thousands of dead US servicemembers, the B52 bombers flew in, did the job and the ayatollahs sat there and took it.
The June War in itself was only made possible due to Iran's collapse in the Middle East a year prior. The destruction of Tehran's proxy deterrence and its militias' defeats in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and to a lesser extent Iraq was the stepping stone for the June War just like the June War will be the stepping stone for what comes next. Unless Tehran can break this cycle it will ultimately perish. Especially the fall of Bashar paved the way for continuous Israeli aggression on and in Iran, this must be emphasized.
Now the pendulum has swung even further. After the June War and destruction of its 40 year old nuclear program, the Israelis and Americans want more, there's blood in the water. In the current negotiations the US+Israel want a ban on Iran restarting its program and a handover of the enriched uranium that was carted out beforehand. Even Iran's ballistic missile program is on the agenda. Ergo Israel will not stop until Iran has been turned into a castrated Treaty of Versailles tier German state. And at some point Tehran will have to stand up and initiate yet they are weak and there's noone who backs them up. Also note that any Iranian concessions will make it even easier for Israel to tip over the Islamic Republic anyway a bit down the line.
Game theory. It's really simple. Israel has achieved a string of victories and with each of them Tel Aviv's confidence grew and realization of Iran's internal weakness and limited power projection became stronger. Building on that conviction and track record Washington is currently negotiating the total removal of the Iranian nuclear deterrent, much like Bashar was relieved of his biological weapon program in 2012 in a Russian-American-Israeli one up. And remember, if you're constantly taking them on the chin whilst ceding ground withdrawing towards your castle you are, in fact, losing.
