Seizing Kharg Island would be a significant escalation and is fraught with risk, but from a strategic perspective makes a lot of sense. It would essentially be the U.S. calling Iran's bluff and saying, "Okay, you want to shut down the Strait of Hormuz? Well, in that case, you're not going to export any oil, either." It puts Iran in a double bind: not only will they be temporarily losing their ability to export oil, but if they unleash the full measure of their defensive capabilities on the Marines occupying Kharg, they will heavily damage if not destroy the island's infrastructure, which would take years to rebuild. The occupation of Kharg would place enormous economic strain on Iran and greatly increase the leverage of the U.S. in potential ceasefire negotiations, and would massively destabilize the entire country and increase the probability of internal uprisings. But for all of that, it still might not work, and could further harden the Iranian regime's resolve. The U.S. Navy and Marine Corps must also be prepared to endure hellacious, constant barrages of rockets, missiles and drones, and have effective countermeasures in place if Iran decides that expelling the invaders is more important than preserving their own assets.
A very risky undertaking to be sure, and one that would spell further pain for the global economy. But that being said, this sort of mission is literally the bread and butter of the Marine Corps and what they were designed to do. If it can be done, they will do it. And it could conceivably end up being successful and provide an accelerated path to a ceasefire. Either way, I just pray that we don't end up seeing American servicemen in the sort of horrific drone footage that's come out of the Ukraine War.
