Healthy Life Expectancy

[Blade Runner]

I recently came across an acronym that the WHO calls Health Life Expectancy (HALE), which measures the number of years the average person in any given country or region can expect to live without "significant disability" or similar things. Basically, it's trying to account for the time between one might turn downhill and descend towards death, and thus getaway from the idea of longevity being quite as meaningful. Others might just call this healthspan, but I think that takes into consideration much higher levels of functioning.

In any case, the numbers are quite stark, as most of surveys or measures suggest that the developed world people have HALE between 65-70 years. I'd guess on average that the number until the last of the "healthy years" is typically 10 years less than the life expectancy.

I'm wondering what you guys think about it, given I've noticed that older people are pretty bad at reporting how life changes from 60-7-80 and even towards 90, as I think they don't have a very high expectation of doing much other than walking around and visiting after some time. I maybe be underestimating what life is like in the 60s, but I've played sports and lifted weights for a pretty long time now, and I'd be disappointed if I couldn't at least perform both of those in some capacity, whereas my guess is that others don't have a higher standard for body or athletic functions.

 

[Northumber]

My first comment is anecdotal but my observation is that there is a divergence that grows between the healthy and unhealthy (or even just less healthy ) groups as they age. I'd be interested if anyone has seen a statistical breakdown of that.

People I know who are now approaching their 70s and who have been healthy their whole life are doing quite well in terms of athleticism etc. Visually they look 20 years younger than their peers.

 

[Blade Runner]

My first comment is anecdotal but my observation is that there is a divergence that grows between the healthy and unhealthy (or even just less healthy ) groups as they age. I'd be interested if anyone has seen a statistical breakdown of that.

People I know who are now approaching their 70s and who have been healthy their whole life are doing quite well in terms of athleticism etc. Visually they look 20 years younger than their peers.

Yes, I've noticed such things, and since (just like in stats and a bell curve distribution) there is skew, "average" means much less. We need standard deviation. That's sorta what I was getting at: average isn't meaningful when you aren't average.

The problem is that most people think they aren't just average.

 

[Northumber]

Found a description of my observation about the divergence at age. It is in an article comparing biological age to chronological age:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(17)30142-1/fulltext

The article itself focuses on internal factors but it describes the divergence as a "positive predictive value". The red line in the figure:



It shows that the biological age predictor decreases from mid-life and onwards due to the increased biological heterogeneity at old age.

 

[SeekingTruth]

The key is to not let things get out of hand as you get near 40 because making a turn around at that point can be very difficult.
Once you start to obtain things like diabetes, heart problems, atrial fibrillation it's a slippery slope.
Your main goal should just to keep that body fat down (a simple hand/caliper test on the belly fat is all you need).
Keep the risky activities to a minimum.
Proper sleep and sun exposure.

 

[Blade Runner]

I think the main issue in my bringing this up is the interplay between ages, what you do, and why you work. That interplay is all about maximizing the point of your work, which means to enjoy things more in your middle life as opposed to older, when most not only keep working but can't physically do things, or don't want to, etc. Of course, it makes even more sense to try to capitalize on timing in your "prime" if you are single, since I think most people with kids are content to mail it in and just follow what their kids do. They are a proxy for youth for them, as I find it more rare for married people to be in shape or physically as fit as single people, and there are also a lot of obvious reasons for that.

 

[Northumber]

I think the main issue in my bringing this up is the interplay between ages, what you do, and why you work. That interplay is all about maximizing the point of your work, which means to enjoy things more in your middle life as opposed to older, when most not only keep working but can't physically do things, or don't want to, etc.

What do you mean by enjoying things? Doing work you enjoy? Recreating for enjoyment? I'm assuming you mean in general.
Nonetheless, that is a good question to ask oneself: why do you work. I'm at the position in my life I do it mostly for my family.

Of course, it makes even more sense to try to capitalize on timing in your "prime" if you are single, since I think most people with kids are content to mail it in and just follow what their kids do. They are a proxy for youth for them, as I find it more rare for married people to be in shape or physically as fit as single people, and there are also a lot of obvious reasons for that.

This is true but it a common degradation and not an ideal to strive for. I think in a traditional setup married people would have been more likely to remain as physically fit as their single counterparts in the same age group. The incentive being staying active in order to remain engaged with their children playing/teaching trades/etc. and being fit enough to physically care for their aging parents/older relatives. Essentially responsibilities and the desire to take care of your clan kept you fit.

Now? All bets are off. Most people now who are married slept-walked into it. You know, try it out first to see if you are good for each other, then get married. Safe. No bold initiative ever taken. They are used to compromising so why not continue with your fitness. You know your partner is afraid to leave too so, whatever, let it slide. And yeah, with that mindset you would develop that youth through proxy mentality with your children.
Higher classes of married people remain fit, but this fitness is driven by pure vanity. Maybe the wife stays fit to catch the eye of the contractor working in that kitchen remodel while the husband is away making the big bucks. Her husband, meanwhile, wants to continue to score those chicks on business trips. Kids for them are more like a side thing.

I'm describing stereotypes but there is a reason there are stereotypes.

A breakdown of aging effects along some of these types would be fascinating.

 

[Douglas Quaid]

I think avoiding alcohol and tobacco is a major way to avoid aging. After that, staying active and avoiding processed foods and stress as much as possible.

A lot of the cardio athletes seem to age well. So things like swimming, cycling, skiing, surfing, etc.

 

[Blade Runner]

Nonetheless, that is a good question to ask oneself: why do you work. I'm at the position in my life I do it mostly for my family.

Yes, I stress the time is greater than work because so many Americans over do it (even when they have). There is an issue in general with the rat race in that it's very hard to get a job and then choose how much you'll work.

This is the other problem with the gynocentric and consumerist society where women are ascendant, though that won't last: you're looked at as being lazy if you don't try to meaninglessly just make money for your wife, or worse, for the .gov via taxes. What happens with that life strategy? Typically poor health.

Now? All bets are off. Most people now who are married slept-walked into it. You know, try it out first to see if you are good for each other, then get married. Safe. No bold initiative ever taken. They are used to compromising so why not continue with your fitness. You know your partner is afraid to leave too so, whatever, let it slide. And yeah, with that mindset you would develop that youth through proxy mentality with your children.

Exactly.

A thing that commonly confuses me is how different average people think they are from the rest of society. I think mostly they don't think about it, but if they do, it's just some narrative that every person is special. Again, I'm not trying to say that we should shine or praise various achievers or higher level people, or tell others how average or nominal they are, but I do find it odd that a lot of people don't ever say out loud how they are just an average Joe.

 

[scorpion]

With modern medicine and our current understanding of proper nutrition and training, it's reasonable to expect properly disciplined and motivated people to remain healthy and active through their seventies. Once you hit eighty, however, most people are going to start declining noticeably, and by the time they reach 85 people usually hit a pretty hard wall where their activities become much more limited. By that point even people who have been healthy and active for their whole lives have a hard time, as the body (and brain) just can't keep up anymore. At this point, life becomes almost entirely about just trying to keep yourself alive and relatively comfortable. Most people 85+ have one or more serious health issues and will frequently be visiting doctors and will probably require regular or at least occasional assistance from their grown children. Some promising medical advancements may prolong the healthspan window in the decades to come, but I'd be very surprised if they manage to push back that hard wall of decline even 5-10 years.

 

[Blade Runner]

With modern medicine and our current understanding of proper nutrition and training, it's reasonable to expect properly disciplined and motivated people to remain healthy and active through their seventies. Once you hit eighty, however, most people are going to start declining noticeably, and by the time they reach 85 people usually hit a pretty hard wall where their activities become much more limited. By that point even people who have been healthy and active for their whole lives have a hard time, as the body (and brain) just can't keep up anymore. At this point, life becomes almost entirely about just trying to keep yourself alive and relatively comfortable. Most people 85+ have one or more serious health issues and will frequently be visiting doctors and will probably require regular or at least occasional assistance from their grown children. Some promising medical advancements may prolong the healthspan window in the decades to come, but I'd be very surprised if they manage to push back that hard wall of decline even 5-10 years.

Yes, I think you are even being generous, as most people in their 70s really tail off. Life expectancy for the average person is late 70s, so for most being reasonably active generally ends by age 70. I think one needs to do all he can to take advantage of ages 50-70 as a result.

 

[Marcus2022]

Interested in the point about 'modern medicine' playing a part in longevity. Noah was estimated to be 500 years old when he build the ark.
What changed between those times and today that 70's is regarded old age? On another note to live for 500 years or more it's possible
to gain first hand information, not passed down through multiple generations.

 

[Northumber]

.

Interested in the point about 'modern medicine' playing a part in longevity.

I would say not much in terms of lifespan. Note that lifespan and life expectancy are two different things. Life expectancy is a statistic. It's an average. Lifespan is simply: how long an organism is expected to live.

Lifespan in that sense hasn't changed for humans and can be seen to be essentially the same throughout history.

Here is an article on it:

Do we really live longer than our ancestors?

The wonders of modern medicine and nutrition make it easy to believe we enjoy longer lives than at any time in human history, but we may not be that special after all.

www.bbc.com

 

[Northumber]

What changed between those times and today that 70's is regarded old age?

I was going to say more toxins in the environment after the flood. But, as @Blade Runner mentioned, the drop off after 70s is so severe it seems like there is something internal that now times out.

 

[GoodShepherd]

It depends on the individual person, I know a guy who is 92 and he still goes to the gym to lift weight about 5 days a week and he drives himself there, he looks really good, my grandfather was cycling even in his 80's and Im talking about serious cycling that even young guys who road with him said he was a hard rider, he also smoked until he was 60 but doctor told him to stop as it was bad for his health so overnight he stopped, another guy I know smoked most of his life and drank too and is still a soccer player today at 65 and also enters cycling races every year, he did stop smoking a few years ago because he goat soke cancer in the throat but still as strong as a horse.

Other people are in their 50's and look like lifes is almost over for them and they seem weak and old.

 

[GoodShepherd]

With modern medicine and our current understanding of proper nutrition and training, it's reasonable to expect properly disciplined and motivated people to remain healthy and active through their seventies. Once you hit eighty, however, most people are going to start declining noticeably, and by the time they reach 85 people usually hit a pretty hard wall where their activities become much more limited. By that point even people who have been healthy and active for their whole lives have a hard time, as the body (and brain) just can't keep up anymore. At this point, life becomes almost entirely about just trying to keep yourself alive and relatively comfortable. Most people 85+ have one or more serious health issues and will frequently be visiting doctors and will probably require regular or at least occasional assistance from their grown children. Some promising medical advancements may prolong the healthspan window in the decades to come, but I'd be very surprised if they manage to push back that hard wall of decline even 5-10 years.

Im sorry to say this but modern medicine is killing people, the longer you can stay away from doctors and hospitals and the toxic medication they give you the better off you will be.

All the strong healthy people I know as soon as they went to hospital and started taking their meds it ruined their health, look at Cuba theu dont have modern medicine and they smoke cigars and they live until their 90's

 

[Blade Runner]

Im sorry to say this but modern medicine is killing people, the longer you can stay away from doctors and hospitals and the toxic medication they give you the better off you will be.

As much as I think there is a depopulation plan and the covid and corporate takeovers don't help anyone live longer, this is just a type of bias. Why does one go to the hospital in the first place? Don't forget this. It's because by definition something is wrong. Staying away from doctors isn't keeping you alive, you are already healthy by virtue of the fact that you don't need to see them in the first place.

Longevity didn't increase over the last 100 years because medicine got worse. Ask any person who had a cardiovascular intervention if he would rather have not gotten treatment. Oh yeah, that's right you wouldn't be able to ask those that didn't undergo treatment, because they're dead.

 

[Douglas Quaid]

It depends on the individual person, I know a guy who is 92 and he still goes to the gym to lift weight about 5 days a week and he drives himself there, he looks really good, my grandfather was cycling even in his 80's and Im talking about serious cycling that even young guys who road with him said he was a hard rider, he also smoked until he was 60 but doctor told him to stop as it was bad for his health so overnight he stopped, another guy I know smoked most of his life and drank too and is still a soccer player today at 65 and also enters cycling races every year, he did stop smoking a few years ago because he goat soke cancer in the throat but still as strong as a horse.

Other people are in their 50's and look like lifes is almost over for them and they seem weak and old.

Cycling is one of the best ways to stay active. Very easy to push hard while being easy on the body. I'm trying to get into swimming for the same reason.

 

[Marcus2022]

Cardiovascular intervention seems impressive although not really treating the root cause, it's treating the results of a horrendously toxic food business and lifestyle while enriching the health business. The two go hand in hand, all the way to the bank.

 

[GoodShepherd]

As much as I think there is a depopulation plan and the covid and corporate takeovers don't help anyone live longer, this is just a type of bias. Why does one go to the hospital in the first place? Don't forget this. It's because by definition something is wrong. Staying away from doctors isn't keeping you alive, you are already healthy by virtue of the fact that you don't need to see them in the first place.

Longevity didn't increase over the last 100 years because medicine got worse. Ask any person who had a cardiovascular intervention if he would rather have not gotten treatment. Oh yeah, that's right you wouldn't be able to ask those that didn't undergo treatment, because they're dead.

Western doctors are no good though, even the average couch potato out lives a doctor, they are not good examples, there is a good book you must read called confessions of a medical heretic the stats he shares in there will shock you, when doctors in US and Israel went on strike people stopped dying, when they went back to work people continued dying, the deaths caused by malpractice and wrong diagnosis is very very very high, even covid all those deaths mostly happened in hospitals only, the people who were sick and didnt go to hospital lived. I know a husband and wife who both got covid, the wife went to hospital she died, the husbanf didnt and he lived.