Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

Australia Sucks said:
As I already mentioned the currency does matter not only the real economy. The proof of this is that every economy with a very weak currency also has a weak economy. The two go hand in hand. The Argentinian economy is weak, the Venezuelan economy is weak, the Turkish economy is weak, etc. A weak currency and a weak economy go hand in hand. Even in the U.S.A. the real GDP growth rate long-term trend line has been decelerating for decades.

A basic reading of Richard Cantillon, Murray Rothbard, Frederich Hayek, Ludwig Von Mises, Carl Menger, Milton Friedman, Henry George, etc will provide ample evidence that the currency does matter. You act as if it works like a corporation doing a stock split. If Apple shares are a thousand dollars and then you do a 10 for 1 stock split all the shareholders are in the same position as before. With currency it does not work that way. Firstly debt holders and savers (in cash) get stiffed and there is also the Cantillon effect causing certain individuals to get even richer. Inflation distorts the structure of the economy in a million different ways.

“There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”​

― John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace
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I don't know how he consistently denies our points, which are self evident, especially in our, more thoughtful, corner of the internet.

As Ben Werkman put out recently, however, it's something Michael Saylor made his first in the "21 rules of Bitcoin"

1. Those who understand bitcoin, buy bitcoin. Those who don't, criticize bitcoin.
 
Blade Runner said:
I don't know how he consistently denies our points, which are self evident, especially in our, more thoughtful, corner of the internet.

As Ben Werkman put out recently, however, it's something Michael Saylor made his first in the "21 rules of Bitcoin"

1. Those who understand bitcoin, buy bitcoin. Those who don't, criticize bitcoin.
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1/1000 people understand bitcoin.
Understanding bitcoin, is absolutely a prerequisite to understanding MSTR.
1/10 bitcoiners understand MSTR.
1/10,000 is information asymmetry and it’s going to be epic.
 
chance vought said:
Back when eth was PoW it was very profitable to mine with a bunch of video cards, I mined with a few high end cards up until the eth PoS fork and for each card you could net about $30/mo in either eth or other shipcoins. Now almost all of those cost more in electricity than it’s worth to mine, unless you are in North Dakota or somewhere with basement priced electric
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Isnt it not worth minning bitcoin anymore for new first time minners? as I understand every 4 years bitcoin is programmed to produce 50% bitcoin so every 4 years you would need more and more energy to produce less and less bitcoin right?
 
chance vought said:
1/1000 people understand bitcoin.
Understanding bitcoin, is absolutely a prerequisite to understanding MSTR.
1/10 bitcoiners understand MSTR.
1/10,000 is information asymmetry and it’s going to be epic.
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Where do you value MSTR on the spectrum of btc yield and fiat multiple?

One thing we're going to find out, that is yet another people have been sleeping on, is how crazy the numbers/earnings will be when the new FASB rule begins. Saylor just did preferred stock, too. The guy is surgically destroying the fiat system, it's amazing.
 
GoodShepherd said:
Isnt it not worth minning bitcoin anymore for new first time minners? as I understand every 4 years bitcoin is programmed to produce 50% bitcoin so every 4 years you would need more and more energy to produce less and less bitcoin right?
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Mining the fiat debt markets is now more profitable than mining with electricity and ASICS until fiat dies: fiat maxi’s are paying a premium to MSTR and MARA shareholders for not understanding bitcoin
 
Blade Runner said:
Where do you value MSTR on the spectrum of btc yield and fiat multiple?

One thing we're going to find out, that is yet another people have been sleeping on, is how crazy the numbers/earnings will be when the new FASB rule begins. Saylor just did preferred stock, too. The guy is surgically destroying the fiat system, it's amazing.
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I think a 2x multiple is low - however it still makes sense to do ATMs at 2x, so maybe the share price never exceeds 2x? I really don’t know, it’s uncharted territory

If I bought 1 btc of mstr today - I have 0.5 btc of value in shares. If mstr gets to 1.1M btc, my share value will be worth 1 btc even at 1:1 nav…1:1 is the floor for mstr, unless there is a massive coinbase fraud/theft. If mstr gets to 1M coins I almost can’t lose.

It’s easier to think about it as paying 1 btc for a share worth .5 btc and do the math from there (even though each share is only 350k sats)
 
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The problem I see with buying Microstrategy at 2x NAV is where we are in the cycle. According to the 4 year cycle the Bitcoin bull market only has another 6 - 12 months left to run. Even if Microstrategy doubles its NAV in the next 6 - 12 months then you are only breaking even compared to simply buying Bitcoin itself. And once we go into a crypto bear market the NAV premium for MSTR will likely dissapear. Meaning you made no additional gain compared to just buying Bitcoin except you took additional risk and got the4 same return.

If you buy MSTR at 2x NAV early on in the bull cycle then it makes a lot of sense and you will make huge gains but at this stage its looking at bit risky.

Of course if you believe the 4 year crypto cycle no longer exists and Bitcoin is going is having a supercycle and hyperbitcoinisation is occuring with the bull run lasting for many more years then MSTR is a bargain buy at todays price.
 
chance vought said:
... until fiat dies...
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Where do you get this crap? "Fiat dies"? You have no proof of this and yet you continue to bloviate made up lies. What are you a pagan fortune teller? You have fallen right into the JQ trap of their wet dream of a cashless society.

The US dollar rules the economic world and is at the center of modern existance. Nothing is done without the US dollar and everything is done without bitcoin. Like you JQ gambling cultists say, nobody even knows what money or bitcoin is and yet our US businesses and economic growth continue to outpace inflation (the better your business the greater the outpacing). How do you explain our daily reality of financual success using fiat versus your future wish for the US dollar to fail? You can't. One exists now and future predictions do not. Some of us work for a living in the real world and others push buttons on a keyboard for their Matrix driven talmudic overlords.

And stop liking posts you disagree with, it's as disingenuous as your shameless shilling for a wasteful system where a few people consume a large portion of the worlds's electricity so they can get their materialistic jollyes playing a talmudic slot machine based on greed and fear.
Blade Runner said:
He predicts a lot...
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That's like the pot calling the kettle black.
 
PurpleUrkel said:
US businesses and economic growth continue to outpace inflation (the better your business the greater the outpacing).
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The S&P 500 Index gives this impression but its not true in reality. The S&P 500 index has not performed that well if you remove the top 10 stocks. And the Discrepancy between the top 10 companies and the Wilshire 5000 index is even more bigger.

Also easy to beat inflation if you use fake measures like CPI. also small (unlisted) businesses (i.e. mom and pop operators) have been getting crushed the last 10 years.
 
@PurpleUrkel I like posts because I appreciate the content, and took the time to read them, not because I agree.

@Australia Sucks I agree, MSTR is more risky in a 12 month period. The bear case is it drops to 1x NAV and I have less bitcoin than I put into it. My thinking is, the information asymmetry will decrease as time goes on, and share price won't drop to 1x NAV like 2022 and this is as cheap as its going to get. Especially after Q2 when the money printers get turned on again. The fact that there are still so many bitcoiners that don't understand this thing, especially on high signal places like NOSTR, tells me that I'm still early on MSTR.
 
I'm hearing rumours of Trump hesitating and delaying the pardoning of Ross Ulbricht and, by extension, Roger Ver. Does anyone know if this is actually true? This is very concerning if he breaks his promise on Ross.
 
PurpleUrkel said:
One exists now and future predictions do not.
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Seriously, this is perhaps an all time low (high?) in its demonstration of delusion.

Even Munger, ironically showing how stupid he was as well on the topic, said that all fiat goes to zero. Knowing he was going to die soon, and thus didn't matter, it was even more unwise of him to have any opinion on BTC.
 
Australia Sucks said:
If you buy MSTR at 2x NAV early on in the bull cycle then it makes a lot of sense and you will make huge gains but at this stage its looking at bit risky.

Of course if you believe the 4 year crypto cycle no longer exists and Bitcoin is going is having a supercycle and hyperbitcoinisation is occuring with the bull run lasting for many more years then MSTR is a bargain buy at todays price.
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There are a few things going on here that one will have to decide, but there will be proper decisions, which also shows you that you need a long term thesis even if you have a shorter term possibility, and are willing, to trade. First, the reason it is the lower NAV relative to what we saw last year is because of the far more aggressive stockpiling MSTR did. That won't continue anywhere near it's current rate, for many reasons, for the next 2 months, unless BTC doesn't really go up much more in January, which would surprise me (I'll be surprised if it doesn't close January over 115k).

I think it's fairly clear, that unless there is a crazy game theory nation state buying game going on (possible), the supercycle or damping of volatility will not take place. Even if "retail" gets locked out by BTC going into 200k to around 300k as the yearly high, there are many reasons I believe that the next bear market will still bring moves downward of 25%+.

The consideration for trading MSTR this year, at some point, would be that you believe that the next bear market will bring it down significantly enough for you to really, really benefit from trading it vs. hold it for 10 years, a time over which it will be akin to a top tech stock of the last 20 years. I think you have to have conviction that it will go down at least 30% or so in 2026 from its higher levels at which you have sold, in order to make the trade worthwhile.
 
This might be slightly off topic while simultaneously being on topic. I assume everyone is aware of The Simpsons "predicting" / simply informing the public about a bunch of stuff, like the twin towers, Trump's presidency etc. Apparent they also talk about Bitcoin in 1 or 2 episodes and I watched a longer video where they predicted that Bitcoin essentially crashed to zero as a scam in the year 2025 and then basically skyrockets.
Does anyone here think there is any truth to those predictions coming from such a "reliable" source?



This is just an example video with Simpons' naming XRP, ADA and BTC numbers. Of course, no one should plan their life or investments on the basis of cartoons, but I just wanted to get your thoughts on it.
 
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