Thank you to posters in this thread. Lots of old World things happening beyond my understanding.
What a strange turn of events. Russia releasing an Azeri goon of such order? Armenia abandoning CSTO... What do they all expect to get out of this?
What good comes to Armenia from a Zelensky visit? "Here's how I dismantled my heritage Christian country using one simple trick! Antagonize Russia!"
Is Pashinyan a color revolution product? Or is he just a western puppet, in place to supervise the destruction of a Christian nation at clown world's direction?
Apologies, but there is a lot happening here that is beyond my simple American understanding.
Been waiting for a couple of days for the Armenian members to answer this question as I don't like to speak for others on their own country. Yet so far nothing so here is my take.
Overarching geopolitical dynamics are of the following and well known. Every single Kremlin tied media outfit pushes this narrative that there is a multi-decade project to lift Armenia out of the Russian sphere of influence and into the Turkish/French/EU/American (+ Iran and Indian) sphere of influence by use of the Pashinyan government and the shady 2018 soft coup, and that the Pashinyan government is playing foul and has been double gaming their own population regarding Nagorno Karabakh and many of its previous promises.
This is all true, but there is more.
Russia has a long history of miscalculations in the Southern Caucasus, not honoring its treaties and negating Armenian interests. From my understanding the vast majority of ordinary Armenians are ready to ditch Russia and move on - whether that will be an independent path or pro-Western path. This sentiment is across the board, and if liberals, conservatives, nationalists, religious people, non religious people, etc are all somewhat united in their desire to diminish Russian influence than Russia is not without blame itself.
Armenian grievances run from the Russian dealing with the Gyumri massacre - where a Russian serviceman killed a family of 7 including a 6 month old after which the Russian military over at the 102nd base initially refused to hand over the perp, to continuous Russian interference in Armenian domestic affairs, to a lack of Russian/CSTO interference concerning Azeri aggression, to the massive arms deals the Russians keep signing with Azerbaijan, etc.
Point in case, on September 14, 2022 Armenia officially activated the CSTO's Article 4 (equivalent of NATOs Article 5) after yet another Azeri ground incursion into Armenia proper. During 3 days of fighting more than 200 Armenian soldiers were killed. The CSTO's under its Russian head Zas refused to answer the Armenian calls and when it eventually did Zas ruled. out sending CSTO troups - and sent a 'fact-finding mission' instead. Russia did eventually manage to broker a ceasefire but the Azeri military is still on Armenian soil and lethal clashes are frequent.
It should be obvious how events like these work against Russia in the eyes of the Armenian public.
Two maps on the current Armenian territory occupied by Azerbaijan.
However due to Armenia's geo-strategic realities it's wiggling room is limited - even though it has a NATO member (Turkey) and aspirant NATO member (Georgia) on its border. Iran would not favor a strong switch towards NATO and neither would Russia like to see the Southern Caucasus become contested. There are also the economic levers, which favor Russia. Russia holds a lot of economic weight over Armenia, and many of Armenia's power and energy sources are Russian.
In my opinion Armenia will keep moving West but only to a certain extent. Russian army bases will eventually be ordered to evacuate and the Russian soldiers will repatriate. But not before the Armenians will have some sort of security guarantees from its new Western partners. I can't see France or the US moving into Armenia beyond ceremonial trainings missions etc, which is problematic for Pashinyan. Iran isn't interested in Azeri adventures in Syunik either, and has said that it will not tolerate reshaping of the Caucausus.
Right now is a dangerous time. Aliyev and Erdogan are sensing weakness and a window of opportunity. The Russians after all that has happened will not get involved to save Armenian territorial integrity (and Karabakh Armenians) - just like they didn't in 2020, 2022 and 2023. New security agreements have yet to be signed and Aliyev is since February 2022 big buddies with the EU.
