Been hearing about this since at least 2012 that Russia was going to supply Syria, and then Iran, with capable air defense.
Syria shot down a Russian plane while trying to defend against an Israeli air attack in an apparent set up a few years ago, which looked like Israel knew EXACTLY what were the capabilities of the, I think, S-300s the Syrians were using at the time.
And a similar scenario played out more recently where Iran shot down one of its own passenger jets.
It looks like Israel has the upper hand and that Russia either does not have or does not properly share its air defense.
Supplying Iran with capable AD systems would have negated Israeli air supremacy, which in turn would have prevented the current turkey shoot that is happening over and on Iranian soil. It is quite certain that maintaining Israeli aerial superiority is part of a set of below the table agreements between Netanyahu and Putin.
Syria was the proverbial canary in the coalmine. For 8 years the Israelis had a free hand in Syrian airspace, and in the final stages of Bashar's rule the Russians and Israeli were daily coordinating strikes on SAA/Iranian targets, aka the Israelis told the Russians where and what they would strike to avoid accidents. Not once did the Russian AD systems engage, and not once did the Russian inform the Iranians about their impending doom. Some very big IRGC fish were fried in Syria over the years. The few outdated Russian AD pieces the Syrians operated were purposely compromised as to avoid the SAAs AD assets engaging Israeli jets, and by extension putting a block on Israeli operations.
Iran is a tad different as Russia cannot avoid Iran to fall due to the grave geopolitical consequences it would have. Nevertheless the Russians are very vocal about the need for the Iranians to abide by the Non Proliferation Treaty, and to cooperate with international organizations on the matter. The Kremlin might very well start pushing for negotiations and a new JCPOA tier deal soon enough, calling it here.
The Iranians have been trying to move the RU- IR relationship forward but got hit with a brick wall every single time. Pro tip: it might be an idea for one of the Boomerturbans to do an Early Life check on about half the Kremlin as to find out the why, stuff's embarrassing. Iran's last gesture of goodwill: providing Russia with drones and short distance missiles in the first months of Ukraine, and eventually granting Russia the needed licenses to move Shaheed production plants to Russia instead.
Per usual the Kremlinboomers did not return the favor, and have been behaving like a bunch of a-holes on just about every occasion instead. S400 sale, deliberately put on hold. S300 sale, delivery deliberatily delayed until the Iranians started a years long court case in Geneva. Su35 sale, deliberately put on hold. The Russians we're actually so not willing to hand over Iran its hardware that they fasttracked a much later placed Algerian order Su35 a couple of months ago.
www.timesofisrael.com/report-russia-freezes-delivery-of-s-300-missile-defense-to-iran/amp/
Nevertheless copetakes will continue flowing. Con-artists and snake oil vendors have been flocking around this stale narrative for over a decade, and that ain't gonna change overnight. Pay attention to how any reference to the S400/S35 saga will get conveniently ignored, yet junk garage sales of outdated and inferior Russian weapon systems and intentionally de-contextualized and misinterpreted official Russian statements are totally proof.
In that sense it will be a bit like the Gaza affaire. For 18 months Putin has also been
just about to move on Gaza and flex his mucles to stop the genocide. Two more weeks y'all! Meanwhile half the European Continent is moving forward with boycotting and sanctioning Israel, but not a word on that.
Iran was never supposed to be a peer competitor and that set up has worked. Courtesy of Putin. Hence the Iranians now have to deal with 200-250 Israeli sorties per day without any tools or assets to stop those from hitting their target. Despite small recent victories in the form of leveling Israeli apartment buildings, and exacting a real price aka a death toll, the situation is unsustainable.
