The Trump tariffs
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Ol' Bill O Riley mocks Xi's SEA Tour "Malays have no money"
Business is war has been a thing for a while in China.
One important consideration that is always left out in online analysis is whether or not the goods being traded are elastic or inelastic. Two very important economic variables.
Inelastic goods are things that people need, such as food, energy, or water. People will pay any price for these things and the demand cannot change, which is why it's inelastic. Most wars are fought over these goods as it's where the money is at.
Elastic goods are luxuries that are optional, and are typically things women enjoy. The prices of such items raise and fall with trends and demand for such trinkets are highly variable, which is why they are elastic like a rubber band. No wars are ever fought over such things as there's always another trend to exploit.
Thus when the "West" tried to sanction Russia it was doomed, since Russia deals majority in inelastic goods like food, energy, rare earths, etc. People will find ways to buy this stuff no matter what, it's impossible to control such goods.
Conversely, most of Chinese trade goods are just fads, and aren't necessary for real life survival. People can take them or leave them. Women will be very disappointed they can't get their favorite cosmetics, clothes, or fashion accessories for cheap anymore, but life will go on. China's only inelastic goods are pharmaceuticals and rare earths.
Thus China is in a far weaker position than Russia is, and it's why I believed Russia would come out on top in the Ukrainian war (although very slowly, and I've been predicting stalemate for long as we keep funding the war), but here with China vs. USA trade war, I'm predicting a Chinese smackdown, which Zerohedge is as well. China mainly deals in elastic goods, which means they have no leverage over us.
Inelastic goods are things that people need, such as food, energy, or water. People will pay any price for these things and the demand cannot change, which is why it's inelastic. Most wars are fought over these goods as it's where the money is at.
Elastic goods are luxuries that are optional, and are typically things women enjoy. The prices of such items raise and fall with trends and demand for such trinkets are highly variable, which is why they are elastic like a rubber band. No wars are ever fought over such things as there's always another trend to exploit.
Thus when the "West" tried to sanction Russia it was doomed, since Russia deals majority in inelastic goods like food, energy, rare earths, etc. People will find ways to buy this stuff no matter what, it's impossible to control such goods.
Conversely, most of Chinese trade goods are just fads, and aren't necessary for real life survival. People can take them or leave them. Women will be very disappointed they can't get their favorite cosmetics, clothes, or fashion accessories for cheap anymore, but life will go on. China's only inelastic goods are pharmaceuticals and rare earths.
Thus China is in a far weaker position than Russia is, and it's why I believed Russia would come out on top in the Ukrainian war (although very slowly, and I've been predicting stalemate for long as we keep funding the war), but here with China vs. USA trade war, I'm predicting a Chinese smackdown, which Zerohedge is as well. China mainly deals in elastic goods, which means they have no leverage over us.
Ehh, China also makes a lot of tablets and iPhones. For the truly essential items such as semiconductors like microchips that we can’t get anywhere else, we just don’t charge a tariff on theme.
And yes China is far and away the world’s biggest exporter of microchips . So don’t declare victory just yet samseau
We already started construction for these things under the Biden admin several years ago. This is probably a big reason why the tariff war is being greenlit by the Pentagon, they figure America is ready enough to survive any real confrontation.
Let’s hope so. From oec.world
Semiconductor Devices (HS: 8541) Product Trade, Exporters and Importers | The Observatory of Economic Complexity
Find the latest data on new markets for the exports and imports of Semiconductor Devices.
Trump actions are based on the Mar-a-lago accord which can be summed up:
www.apolloacademy.com
If anyone wants to go deeper. The paper wrote by Trump economic advisor behind this policy:
I haven´t read carefully the paper. Just the tariffs part en passant. One thing that was obvious to anyone except the orange drunk elephant was the need to a gradual implementation of tariffs. Not this retarded kids level of you raise I raise. He could just say he will raise tariffs ad infinitum. Like we used to do (When I was a child).
The conversion of current treasury bonds to 100 years. Means a de facto default of US debt. Yep. Trump aka orange nobel will declare bankrupcy on America debt. And america by itself. Anyone holding US debt will have their maturity dates postponed to 100 years. How will this impact the abiity for new loans is to be seen.
How all of this will play out? No idea. Hang on to your seats. Some turbulence ahead to say the least.
To me it was simple cut regulation on small medium companies. And lower taxes. That´s it. Simple and effective.
What Is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? - Apollo Academy
The US dollar is the global reserve currency because America is the most dynamic economy in the world, and the...
www.apolloacademy.com
If anyone wants to go deeper. The paper wrote by Trump economic advisor behind this policy:
I haven´t read carefully the paper. Just the tariffs part en passant. One thing that was obvious to anyone except the orange drunk elephant was the need to a gradual implementation of tariffs. Not this retarded kids level of you raise I raise. He could just say he will raise tariffs ad infinitum. Like we used to do (When I was a child).
The conversion of current treasury bonds to 100 years. Means a de facto default of US debt. Yep. Trump aka orange nobel will declare bankrupcy on America debt. And america by itself. Anyone holding US debt will have their maturity dates postponed to 100 years. How will this impact the abiity for new loans is to be seen.
How all of this will play out? No idea. Hang on to your seats. Some turbulence ahead to say the least.
To me it was simple cut regulation on small medium companies. And lower taxes. That´s it. Simple and effective.
Thos are very simple jobs and I doubt anyone on here even does these jobs, ok the robot cuts the grass then what? Does it know what to do with the waste grass? What about fertilizing the lawn, creating beautiful landscapes, repairing the irrigation, pruning the roses, picking up the dog crap etc etc, I think where AI will be most effective is in admin jobs but it will be a tool to make your work much faster.
Edit.
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If you look at what USA exports to China they sell China FOOD, beef, chicken, pork, all the feed for their animals, soy, grains etc, I know people are gonna say "oh but they can buy this food from Brazil" yes but its seasonal, when the food produced in Brazil is out of season they need to buy from USA, even some of their rice is grown in USA.
You are correct to point out that a lot of the stuff China sells to USA is basically luxury items than US can live without, even the meds I think you guys will become a lot healthier without all those meds trust me, nobody in the world uses the amount of meds you guys use its reached a point where it has become harmful, seek more natural ways.
Anyway people forget that the US consumer can still access Chinese products, they can just buy them through Europe and Japan without any tariffs its not the end of the world.
Im going to suspect that the cost of food will go up in China.
[/QUOTE]
If you look at what USA exports to China they sell China FOOD, beef, chicken, pork, all the feed for their animals, soy, grains etc, I know people are gonna say "oh but they can buy this food from Brazil" yes but its seasonal, when the food produced in Brazil is out of season they need to buy from USA, even some of their rice is grown in USA.
You are correct to point out that a lot of the stuff China sells to USA is basically luxury items than US can live without, even the meds I think you guys will become a lot healthier without all those meds trust me, nobody in the world uses the amount of meds you guys use its reached a point where it has become harmful, seek more natural ways.
Anyway people forget that the US consumer can still access Chinese products, they can just buy them through Europe and Japan without any tariffs its not the end of the world.
Im going to suspect that the cost of food will go up in China.
Here is a guy who has some common sense regarding USA and China, USA has so many advantages over China.
Mar a lago accords are just a rerun of the 80´s Plaza accords and later Louvre accords. Except back then no tariffs were introduced. Cause there were professionals handling international affaires. And not reality show participants.
The primary goal of tariffs is to reduce the value of the USD, making american exports more competitive.
If you replace Japan for China. It´s basically the same playbook:
"Accordingly, it triggered an exceptionally large appreciation of the yen, amounting to 46 percent against the dollar and 30 percent in real effective terms by the end of 1986. (The deutsche mark appreciated similarly.) As a result, Japan’s export and GDP growth essentially halted in the first half of 1986. With the economy in recession and the exchange rate appreciating rapidly, the authorities were under considerable pressure to respond. They did so by introducing a sizable macroeconomic stimulus."
In the end the macroeconomic stimulus introduced by the Japanese authorities ended up creating a massive bubble which led to the complete wreckage of the japanese economy leading to the lost decade.
Trump trying to replicate the Plaza accords 2.0 (mar a lago accords) was probably just counting with a 1987 recession. And not a full blown depression. But for this to happen he should have taken into consideration his allies. Plaza were accords. This means agreements. Not chaos and Iraq invasion style unilateral bullshit rethoric. Btw Iraq was a success...
The orange turd made a video saying allies would kiss Trump ass. The reality is quite different. They own his ass. And gave him a good kick in it for being a backstabbing bully. US is dependent on foreign loans. 8,5 trillions of US debt is owned by foreigners. Let that sink in. Just Japan owns 1T.
Internet rumor is Japan, Canada and EU plotted to make the US bond market explode. Why wouldn´t they? Trump said countries would have to kiss his ass. It seems he got his ass whooped. And only due to his amateurish and stupidity dealing in international affaires did this happen. Chicken don blinked. And paused the tariffs. The guy is mental. Applying same tariffs to allies and enemies. How retard can you be?
deanblundell.substack.com
The rerun of the Plaza accords will be messy. It´s hard to evaluate if it will accomplish anything. Since 2025 China and 1980 Japan are not the same. China is not an export economy like Japan was. And Trump managed to successfully alienate his allies which are crucial to enforce it´s policies.
This guy is so high in his own supply. He thinks he can win against the world alone. What he should have done was slap China with 500% tariffs. And the rest of the world 15%. Allies 0% with backdoor negotiations to lower the strength of euro/yen etc against the dollar. With a penalty tariff of 500% for any country rerouting chinese goods. That´s it retard. It would send the right message. But the guy is on record saying allies should be worse treated than enemies. Incredible.
US has a surplus with Australia and Trump is applying tariffs. Nonsense. Btw nobody wants american frankenstein beef.
Now what´s happening it´s the opposite EU just cut it´s interest rate. And want to open it´s market to chinese electric cars to kill Tesla. They will also target specific imports from US republican states. Well done Orange man. Keep talking. Keep talking.
If he fires Powell. Or places a stooge without more measures (gold). US economy will nosedive.
Worse part is he could have easily done this right.
The primary goal of tariffs is to reduce the value of the USD, making american exports more competitive.
If you replace Japan for China. It´s basically the same playbook:
"Accordingly, it triggered an exceptionally large appreciation of the yen, amounting to 46 percent against the dollar and 30 percent in real effective terms by the end of 1986. (The deutsche mark appreciated similarly.) As a result, Japan’s export and GDP growth essentially halted in the first half of 1986. With the economy in recession and the exchange rate appreciating rapidly, the authorities were under considerable pressure to respond. They did so by introducing a sizable macroeconomic stimulus."
In the end the macroeconomic stimulus introduced by the Japanese authorities ended up creating a massive bubble which led to the complete wreckage of the japanese economy leading to the lost decade.
Trump trying to replicate the Plaza accords 2.0 (mar a lago accords) was probably just counting with a 1987 recession. And not a full blown depression. But for this to happen he should have taken into consideration his allies. Plaza were accords. This means agreements. Not chaos and Iraq invasion style unilateral bullshit rethoric. Btw Iraq was a success...
The orange turd made a video saying allies would kiss Trump ass. The reality is quite different. They own his ass. And gave him a good kick in it for being a backstabbing bully. US is dependent on foreign loans. 8,5 trillions of US debt is owned by foreigners. Let that sink in. Just Japan owns 1T.
Internet rumor is Japan, Canada and EU plotted to make the US bond market explode. Why wouldn´t they? Trump said countries would have to kiss his ass. It seems he got his ass whooped. And only due to his amateurish and stupidity dealing in international affaires did this happen. Chicken don blinked. And paused the tariffs. The guy is mental. Applying same tariffs to allies and enemies. How retard can you be?
Carney’s Checkmate: How Canada's Quiet Bond Play Forced Trump to Drop Tariffs
Carney, Japan And The EU proved America's Idiot Emperor Has No Clothes
deanblundell.substack.com
The rerun of the Plaza accords will be messy. It´s hard to evaluate if it will accomplish anything. Since 2025 China and 1980 Japan are not the same. China is not an export economy like Japan was. And Trump managed to successfully alienate his allies which are crucial to enforce it´s policies.
This guy is so high in his own supply. He thinks he can win against the world alone. What he should have done was slap China with 500% tariffs. And the rest of the world 15%. Allies 0% with backdoor negotiations to lower the strength of euro/yen etc against the dollar. With a penalty tariff of 500% for any country rerouting chinese goods. That´s it retard. It would send the right message. But the guy is on record saying allies should be worse treated than enemies. Incredible.
US has a surplus with Australia and Trump is applying tariffs. Nonsense. Btw nobody wants american frankenstein beef.
Now what´s happening it´s the opposite EU just cut it´s interest rate. And want to open it´s market to chinese electric cars to kill Tesla. They will also target specific imports from US republican states. Well done Orange man. Keep talking. Keep talking.
If he fires Powell. Or places a stooge without more measures (gold). US economy will nosedive.
Worse part is he could have easily done this right.
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The CCP has a kill count in the 9 figures (it's own people) but for much of the last 15-20 years it had quietly stopped talking about the Mao era - in international settings at least. But now, after DJT tightening the screws and de facto ending 50 years of subsidized Chinese growth the theater is over. The CCP is openly and unapologetically reverting to praising its Maoist roots due to the sugarcoating no longer being effective nor necessary.
Chinese MFA spokes woman Mao Ning:
Chinese MFA spokes woman Mao Ning:
Such clown world. I need China for absolutely nothing. That CCP commie b*tch got nothin but her jew inspired feminist tough talk. Like you, myself, and others have stated there's a reason only 70K American expats are living in China (including a mere 700 students), while there are over a million native born Chinese immigrants living in the US (including 300K students). The numbers don't lie. Chinese are far more attracted to America then Americans are to China, and for good reason.
Read em' and weep all you commie lovin' bastards. USA all the way.
May God Bless America in her fight against the demonic, JQ-controlled commies.