Trump's bark is usually bigger than his bite. He probably is only talking about an embargo on Iran, not a bombing campaign (which would be immensely risky for airmen).
The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread
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Trump's bark is usually bigger than his bite. He probably is only talking about an embargo on Iran, not a bombing campaign (which would be immensely risky for airmen).
China imports 800k less bpd than last year, Brent crude price decreasing throughout January and February was partly because of this.
Santions are not a new thing and China's been trying to avoid secondary sanctions since 2022, always looking for the pragmatic and at times a bit cringe middle road in things. Difference is that Trump is much more aggressive in his foreign policy, if the Iranians don't show interest in his negotiations/ nuclear deal proposals DJT will move to cut Iranian oil off from its main buyer and the Chinese won't dare to go against it barring a cosmetic statement here and there.
China’s Oil Imports Down 5% in January and February | OilPrice.com
China's crude oil and natural gas imports fell in the first two months of 2024, influenced by U.S. sanctions on Russian energy and weaker domestic demand.
oilprice.com
That's not how Iran interpreted things. They have filed an official complaint with the UNSC over Trump's choice of words and threats.
CENTCOM Commander Michael Kurilla has landed in Israel and is currently meeting with the Israeli Chief of Staff.
Not mentioned in this thread yet is DJTs letter to Khamenei, part of the two months ultimatum (expiring May 1) set by Trump to get Iran to sign a nuclear deal.
Your Excellency Ayatollah Khamenei,
With respect for your position and the people of Iran, I write this message to you with the aim of opening new horizons for our relations, far from the years of conflict and misunderstandings we have witnessed in past decades. The time has come to abandon enmity and open a new chapter based on mutual cooperation and respect. Today, too, there is a historic opportunity before us.
The United States, under my leadership, is ready to take a major step toward peace and easing tensions. We can work together to lift sanctions, empower the Iranian economy, and open the doors of cooperation between our countries. This is not only in the interest of our peoples, but also in the interest of stability and peace in the Middle East and the entire world.
But I warn you — if you reject this outstretched hand, and if the Iranian regime chooses the path of escalation and continued support for terrorist organizations and military adventures, then our response will be decisive and swift. We will not remain idle in the face of your regime’s threats to our people or our allies.
Peace is not weakness. It is the choice of the strong. The Iranian people are a great people who deserve a better future, far from isolation, poverty, and suffering.
If you are ready to negotiate, we are ready too. But if you persist in ignoring the demands of the world, history will record that you missed a tremendous opportunity.
With respect.
Iranian FM on the letter.
Not mentioned in this thread yet is DJTs letter to Khamenei, part of the two months ultimatum (expiring May 1) set by Trump to get Iran to sign a nuclear deal.
Your Excellency Ayatollah Khamenei,
With respect for your position and the people of Iran, I write this message to you with the aim of opening new horizons for our relations, far from the years of conflict and misunderstandings we have witnessed in past decades. The time has come to abandon enmity and open a new chapter based on mutual cooperation and respect. Today, too, there is a historic opportunity before us.
The United States, under my leadership, is ready to take a major step toward peace and easing tensions. We can work together to lift sanctions, empower the Iranian economy, and open the doors of cooperation between our countries. This is not only in the interest of our peoples, but also in the interest of stability and peace in the Middle East and the entire world.
But I warn you — if you reject this outstretched hand, and if the Iranian regime chooses the path of escalation and continued support for terrorist organizations and military adventures, then our response will be decisive and swift. We will not remain idle in the face of your regime’s threats to our people or our allies.
Peace is not weakness. It is the choice of the strong. The Iranian people are a great people who deserve a better future, far from isolation, poverty, and suffering.
If you are ready to negotiate, we are ready too. But if you persist in ignoring the demands of the world, history will record that you missed a tremendous opportunity.
With respect.
Iranian FM on the letter.
The UN, which is funded by the USA? So Iran is appealing Trump to Trump?
China imports 800k less bpd than last year, Brent crude price decreasing throughout January and February was partly because of this.
Santions are not a new thing and China's been trying to avoid secondary sanctions since 2022, always looking for the pragmatic and at times a bit cringe middle road in things. Difference is that Trump is much more aggressive in his foreign policy, if the Iranians don't show interest in his negotiations/ nuclear deal proposals DJT will move to cut Iranian oil off from its main buyer and the Chinese won't dare to go against it barring a cosmetic statement here and there.
China’s Oil Imports Down 5% in January and February | OilPrice.com
China's crude oil and natural gas imports fell in the first two months of 2024, influenced by U.S. sanctions on Russian energy and weaker domestic demand.
If we're talking about the USN physically interdicting shipping of Iranian oil to China, I doubt the Chinese would be passive.
With the Trump ultimatum to Iran for May, it is no wonder his team is trying hard to push for a cease fire in Ukraine, they need to have most of their resources mobilized for a large scale attack on Iran.
The US funds about 22 % of the UN budget, and is the largest funder by far. But not the only one. The UN is certainly not controlled by Trump.
Which is why he probably will withdraw US funding at some point.
The Turks and Israeli are both trying to maximize influence and orbit in Syria, yesterday Turkish troops moved into the T4 Homs AB apparently intent on setting up an AD umbrella and rebuilding the base. This is as far south as Turkish troops have yet been, and Israel is not on board with the Turks' intention to rapidly rebuild Syria's military capacities.
Over the weeks the Israeli Airforce has been bombing the remains of Syria's already charred out military infrastructure including some of its military airports to scare off the Turks and keep the Syrians incapacitated
Last week also signalled the first Syrian deaths in Israel's southern incursion, 8 tribal Syrian fighters were taken out by drone (allegedly) after firing mortars at the IDF in the town of al Kuya.
Today the IDF made another advance, this time towards Nawa which is a big population center. Clashes followed with calls for jihad ringing from the mosques' loudspeakers in parts of Daraa province.
Over the weeks the Israeli Airforce has been bombing the remains of Syria's already charred out military infrastructure including some of its military airports to scare off the Turks and keep the Syrians incapacitated
Last week also signalled the first Syrian deaths in Israel's southern incursion, 8 tribal Syrian fighters were taken out by drone (allegedly) after firing mortars at the IDF in the town of al Kuya.
Today the IDF made another advance, this time towards Nawa which is a big population center. Clashes followed with calls for jihad ringing from the mosques' loudspeakers in parts of Daraa province.
So what's the over/under on whether we are going to bomb Iran soon? Is it all bluff or are we doing this? Even if Iran negotiates, is there anything they can do to prove the negative to US satisfaction? At this point, I have no gut instinct on what the Trump admin is thinking about all this. Can't really believe he's going to do this, but then again, yes I can.
Edit - and I don't trust that he, or Hegseth,, or all the NSC team, are getting candid advice here. Swampers love setting traps. Trump knows this. They would love for him to take a hard L in order to increase their leverage on the power dynamic.
Edit - and I don't trust that he, or Hegseth,, or all the NSC team, are getting candid advice here. Swampers love setting traps. Trump knows this. They would love for him to take a hard L in order to increase their leverage on the power dynamic.
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The longer this drags out, the less likely I think it is to happen. Yes, Adelson gave Trump $100 million for a reason, and yes Trump brags about being the most pro-Israel president in the history of our country. So, with those two things, it seems very likely to happen. But most young people are completely against this idea, and if we did something stupid, it could cause a backlash the likes we have never seen. Also, the USA technology might not be sufficient to bomb Iran. There were some reports that suggested Iran could lock onto the F-35 and had some form of air defense system they could not recognize.
I think it ends up being some deal made, Iran takes a small loss, the USA can boast and brag but really it just kicks the can down the road another 5 to 10 years, to which it becomes someone else's problem and at that point Iran is too tough to bully any longer.
Trump has made a name for himself for not starting new wars, although he did make some questionable choices with bombing Syria, etc.
I see his current threats against Iran as being similar to the threats against North Korea in his first administration. It was posturing as a means of pushing them to change their attitude. It's hard to see how this will work with Iran. I think at most they will make some gesture to defuse the situation, but ultimately it won't change anything (same as happened with NK).
If we did attack Iran, I think it would go poorly. We would have more of our aircraft shot down than people expect. They would counter attack with more effectiveness than people expect. The attacks on their nuclear infrastructure would be minimally effective, and they might respond by immediately completing a nuclear bomb, which I think they have stopped short of doing up to now.
It would be out of the question for the US to try to go boots on the ground, so it would be only a blockade and aerial attacks. Even the blockade might not work. I could imagine China sailing into an Iranian harbor and daring the US to stop them.
All in all, I think it would be a huge mistake for Trump to do this. Therefore, I think he must be bluffing, and I think Iran must believe he is bluffing.
As I understand it, he's doing this over Yemen, and it seems like a poor approach. Trump wants to do something, but he's better off doing nothing than doing something that doesn't work.
I see his current threats against Iran as being similar to the threats against North Korea in his first administration. It was posturing as a means of pushing them to change their attitude. It's hard to see how this will work with Iran. I think at most they will make some gesture to defuse the situation, but ultimately it won't change anything (same as happened with NK).
If we did attack Iran, I think it would go poorly. We would have more of our aircraft shot down than people expect. They would counter attack with more effectiveness than people expect. The attacks on their nuclear infrastructure would be minimally effective, and they might respond by immediately completing a nuclear bomb, which I think they have stopped short of doing up to now.
It would be out of the question for the US to try to go boots on the ground, so it would be only a blockade and aerial attacks. Even the blockade might not work. I could imagine China sailing into an Iranian harbor and daring the US to stop them.
All in all, I think it would be a huge mistake for Trump to do this. Therefore, I think he must be bluffing, and I think Iran must believe he is bluffing.
As I understand it, he's doing this over Yemen, and it seems like a poor approach. Trump wants to do something, but he's better off doing nothing than doing something that doesn't work.
Iran is a major military power. Its not a pushover like Iraq or Syria were. Any war involving Iran will be messy, protracted, hugely costly and have massive casualties.
I doubt Trump will do direct war with Iran. It will be too messy, but I could see the USA bombing some targets inside of Iran like the USA is doing with Yemen. I can also see the USA placing a naval blockade against Iran. But direct war? Nah, too risky for Trump.
Some day we will find a competitor that sees such things ('it's not direct war, we're just bombing parts of your country') differently. Maybe that competitor will be able to hit us back, besides all our capabilities and talk. They will simply say "you bombed our stuff, because you could, so we're bombing your stuff, because we can." I don't know if Iran is that level of competitor yet.
They aren't even close to that level, which is why our country feels emboldened to bomb them vs. bombing a country like China, which can hit back in such ways.
“Whatever you think of tariffs, it’s clear that now is the worst possible time for the United States to participate in a military strike on Iran. We can’t afford it. Thousands of Americans would die. We’d lose the war that follows. Nothing would be more destructive to our country. And yet we’re closer than ever, thanks to unrelenting pressure from neocons. This is suicidal. Anyone advocating for conflict with Iran is not an ally of the United States, but an enemy.”