The Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Thread

LaAguilaNegra

LaAguilaNegra

Other Christian
Heritage
Figured this deserved its own thread as discussion and analysis on the topic is currently scattered around the forum.

The current thing is Xi JinPing's 3 day visit (November 14-17) to San Francisco, where he and his delegation are attending the APEC forum. He is having meetings with all the high ups in the Biden Administration and is attending events with many influential CEOs.

There is a lot of discussion of the actual purpose and timing of this meeting. And on the consequences of course. The meeting itself was announced only on November 10, with Xi arriving in San Francisco on November 14.

Biden Administration officials on the purpose of the visit:

It is expected to cover global issues from the Israel-Hamas war to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, North Korea's ties with Russia, Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, human rights, fentanyl, artificial intelligence, as well as "fair" trade and economic relations, senior Biden administration officials said.

Today, November 16, Xi attended a business forum with many of the US' top CEOs. A summary of his speech.



The people in attendance

F_D_If9WcAAImFJ (1).jpeg
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
There is a lot of discussion of the actual purpose and timing of this meeting. And on the consequences of course. The meeting itself was announced only on November 10, with Xi arriving in San Francisco on November 14.

Biden Administration officials on the purpose of the visit:

It is expected to cover global issues from the Israel-Hamas war to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, North Korea's ties with Russia, Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, human rights, fentanyl, artificial intelligence, as well as "fair" trade and economic relations, senior Biden administration officials said.
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In my opinion the Biden Administration engineered this meeting. The US is currently overextended. It's fighting two proxy wars at the same time, and just the Ukraine affair alone laid bare its shortcomings in terms of logistics, manufacturing and production. Any escalation (to a regional conflict) in the Middle East/ Indo- Pacific would be more than unwelcome.

Hence the staredown of Hezbollah/Iran through showing force in the Eastern Mediterranean/ Persian Gulf. And now the diplomatic blitz with Xi. The US is likely going to make concessions related to repealing sanctions, making promises on Taiwan etc.

In my opinion any reconciliation will be temporary, and serve as a pause to the coming showdown. If the reconciliation process is fruitful (still an if) the relations will start deteriorating in at best 6-12 months again.

Not sure why China is playing along. The Deep State has made its intentions and attitude very well known in the last couple of years. Either Xi is unaware of the US' track record (can't genuinely be the case), or he's playing some 9D chess or China is in a much worse position than we know and needs this as much as the US does. Clay feet paper dragon and all that.

The first tangible outcome of the reconciliation efforts
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There are mass protests in Nepal. The protestors want the monarchy restored and for Nepal to return to being an official Hindu state. Nepal had its monarchy abolished in 2008 after Maoist rebels defeated the regular army and a truce was reached (2006).

Many say that the unrest is directed from India and the USA, particularly because Victoria Nuland, Samantha Power and Donald Lu have visited Nepal in 2023.



 
Myanmar's military government has lost nearly the entire Shan state border area with China. Shan state's capital is under siege and rebels of various stripes. The Chinese are 'highly concerned'.

It's a serious setback for China. Myanmar is a key element in China's Belt and Road Initiative and its strategic objective to mitigate dependancy and vulnerability on maritime choke points like the Strait of Malacca, ie create new infrastructural projects connecting Myanmar and China and if possible create Chinese bases in or near the Gulf of Bengal (Coco Island).

If Myanmar falls that entire plan can get straight into the trashbin. The US passed the 2022 Burma Act which pledges humanitarian non lethal support for the rebel held areas in Myanmar.


IMG_20231203_073208_016.webp
 
I am amazed to see that Myanmar is such a patchwork of petty warlord territories. I thought it had a central government that had effective control over it's territory, other than a problem with some separatist muslims. I had heard the country was under developed, but thought it had good prospects for economic growth.

It sounds like it is a failed state, existing in a state of near anarchy.
 
**moved this from Geopolitics Lounge and added some more contents**

This should be obvious to those of us following the actions of Taiwan and the governments that the US has influence over has been pushing the Taiwanese government to bait China into war 20 years ago confirmed in a podcast conversation with Colonel Larry Wilkerson with the Duran.



Side note from what I'm aware, it looks like the Liberal Wing of the Taiwanese is following along whereas the Military Wing of Taiwan are siding with China. However, the US has strong influences with South Korea, Japan, Philippines and along with Australia & New Zealand.

Here is a retired KMT (Taiwan) General meeting with Xi Jinping declaring his support for Xi. If you search more - you'll run into articles of Taiwanese soldiers collaborating with Chinese PLA with Intelligence sharing.



Per Myanmar - Post-WW2, a group of KMT soldiers that couldn't make it to Taiwan had situated there. They operated the Golden Triangle which I'm sure you can look up.
 
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LaAguilaNegra said:
In a couple of weeks the general election in Taiwan is planned. Unlike many of the dog and pony shows elsewhere this election actually matters. Currently the pro US DPP are leading in the polls.

View attachment 3358



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Can you explain the second tweet about hyping the PLA? The below is my take with out doing a significant amount of research ...so open to corrections...

Is China or isn't China going to annex Taiwan soon?

I'm not Peter Zeihan (nor do I agree with his takes) but this seems very imminent based off current regime geopolitical realities.
 
Get2choppaaa said:
Can you explain the second tweet about hyping the PLA? The below is my take with out doing a significant amount of research ...so open to corrections...

Is China or isn't China going to annex Taiwan soon?

I'm not Peter Zeihan (nor do I agree with his takes) but this seems very imminent based off current regime geopolitical realities.
Click to expand...

I think the US is and has been more provocative than China.

The big issue with the DPP is their lowkey independence stance. I am not really up to date with the whole Taiwan thing, you'd have to ask other members about it, like @expectation. But from what I know independence is basically a no-go due to constitutional restrictions in the ROC's legal framework. Nevertheless the DPP is hinting at it even though they can't say it out loud nor is it easily achieved. It is also a no go for the PRC which has stated several times that independence is a red line for them.

Right now the Republic of China (aka Taiwan) is a contending government. Like the PRC claims Taiwan, the ROC claims all of China (and more). I believe the US is engineering the independence push and letting go off those pretensions.

All the territory claimed by the ROC. Republic_of_China_(Taiwan)_Territorial_Claims.webp
 
LaAguilaNegra said:
I think the US is and has been more provocative than China.

The big issue with the DPP is their lowkey independence stance. I am not really up to date with the whole Taiwan thing, you'd have to ask other members about it, like @expectation. But from what I know independence is basically a no-go due to constitutional restrictions in the ROC's legal framework. Nevertheless the DPP is hinting at it even though they can't say it out loud nor is it easily achieved. It is also a no go for the PRC which has stated several times that independence is a red line for them.

Right now the Republic of China (aka Taiwan) is a contending government. Like the PRC claims Taiwan, the ROC claims all of China (and more). I believe the US is engineering the independence push and letting go off those pretensions.

All the territory claimed by the ROC. View attachment 3359
Click to expand...
I agree the US forces issues with China we probably could diplomatically resolve.

But with our fearless Dec state Blinken who's always reminding us " my grandparents were in the Holocaust" ...what else is there to expect.

I think the whole thing is genuinely funny that we use to recognize Taiwan as part of China when Nixon was the prez... At least that was my understanding of what happened with the one China policy... Fast forward to now...where it's incoherent and untenable.
 
Historically the agreement has been that all parties (US, Taiwan/ROC, PRC) agree on paper that all of China is a single country and that the island of Taiwan is a part of it, and agree to disagree on who the rightful government over everything is. The US formally recognizes the PRC but also has quasi-diplomatic relations with the Taiwanese government, and has maintained "strategic ambiguity" as to whether or not we would intervene militarily in case of invasion so as to deter the Chinese from invading but also deter the Taiwanese from provoking a fight by formally declaring independence. Taiwan is a de facto independent country but faces threat of invasion if they formally declare independence and as a result can't participate in things like the UN and WHO, have to compete in the Olympics under the name "Chinese Taipei" and can't use their own flag, etc. In the early 90s through early-mid 2010s everyone was happy with this arrangement because it meant the two sides could do business with one another, lots of investment going both ways--keep in mind China didn't really take off economically until the 2000s, at the time of the 1992 Consensus China's GDP was less than double that of Taiwan--and direct flights between the two, the latter particularly important for a Confucian society as families that had been split in 1949 could finally reunite when many still had living relatives on the other side of the Strait that they remembered from their youth.

In terms of Taiwanese domestic politics, the DPP--currently in power--is seen both domestically and in Beijing as a pro-independence party (they haven't formally advocated it as doing so while in power would likely provoke war, but they have consistently tried to test the boundaries of what Beijing will accept); the KMT wants to uphold the status quo--ironically, the KMT is favored by Beijing despite the fact that they're the same Nationalist party who fought against the Communists in the Chinese Civil War of the 1930s-40s. It's due to that history however that the KMT still wishes to maintain at least a theoretical claim on all of the mainland, which Beijing is fine with as they at least won't advocate splitting Taiwan from the mainland (and obviously don't have the ability at this point to invade and conquer China). The KMT ruled the island as a military dictatorship from 1949 until a gradual transition to democracy in the late 80s/early 90s, for this reason they're viewed by many in Taiwan as trying to return to that time period--sort of similar to how an openly Francoist party would be received, fairly or unfairly, in Spain--resentment of the military dictatorship era is also the reason the armed forces are looked down upon in Taiwan and many young Taiwanese find ways to weasel out of serving.

Xi's rise to power in 2012/13 put a wrench in a lot of this, prior to Xi the CCP held the goal of reunification at some undetermined future date but as long as Taiwan didn't openly proclaim independence they were more concerned with economic development than rocking the boat and risking war, Xi wants reunification on his watch (he's currently 70) as part of his legacy. Certainly the US hasn't played its cards perfectly here either but I don't think this is a case like Russia where we've been poking them with a stick for years. I don't think a military invasion is likely however--more likely is a color revolution/little green men approach combined with elite capture (particularly in the KMT), after which China can send in "peacekeepers" and both avoid an opposed landing and give the US/Japan plausible deniability to allow it to proceed.
 
George Yeo, Former Singaporean Cabinet Member under LKY, gave a key note speech in front of senior ROC Officials which lays out China's position in regards to Taiwan recently. With his experience and his network, he's the best English speaker to articulate on this subject from China's POV.

If you have 15 minutes, you should watch but here are some points-
  • China is likely to win a conventional war with the US over TW so now it is about Nuclear deterrence. China is looking to catch up on Nuclear counter strike capabilities - given this, it is in TW's interest to negotiate while they have leverage or before things gets out of control.
  • Yeo suggests that Beijing is likely to accept a Chinese Commonwealth arrangement.

 
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expectation said:
George Yeo, Former Singaporean Cabinet Member under LKY, gave a key note speech in front of senior ROC Officials which lays out China's position in regards to Taiwan recently. With his experience and his network, he's the best English speaker to articulate on this subject.

If you have 15 minutes, you should watch but here are some points-
  • China is likely to win a conventional war with the US over TW so now it is about Nuclear deterrence. China is looking to catch up on Nuclear counter strike capabilities - given this, it is in TW's interest to negotiate while they have leverage or before things gets out of control.
  • Yeo suggests that Beijing is likely to accept a Chinese Commonwealth arrangement.

Click to expand...

Well... This all assumes nukes are real (which I believe is the case ;) )

Very good and something I hadn't seen before.
 
Last year the US ordered Dutch lithography giant ASML to stop exporting to China. When they found out ASML was speeding up deliveries to China pre-ban they halted those deliveries too.

ASML also wants to build a new 300 million euro HQ in Arizona. GC19y19W4AAd2Xr.webpGC19WnRXEAAeyPG.webp
 
One of Myanmar's main rebel groups has taken over Laukkai. Nearly 2400 Myanmar Army soldiers including 6 generals were surrounded and eventually surrendered. They will be brought to government territory as part of the deal. It's the biggest surrender in Myanmar's history.

The group behind the victory is the MNDAA, an ethnic Han Chinese militia operating within the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The Han settled the area in the 18th century. Myanmar's northern region has lots of criminal activity ranging from drug trade to online scamming.

The MNDAA is supported by China. Strangely enough the MNDAA is also part of the National Unity Government, the US backed shadow government that was set up by the US after the 2020 coup.

On that issue of US interference, a former forum member recently said that the escalating civil war in Myanmar is being orchestrated from the new US consolate in Chiang Mai. That consulate apparantly is used as a intel gathering, weaponn storage site and command and control hub. It allegedly runs 5 stories into the ground. He also said that the US is working hard to get the current non-aligned/fence sitting Thai junta out and replace it with full on US stooge Thaksin Shinawatra.







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Today is election day in Bangladesh. The main opposition party (BNP) is boycotting the election hence the current leader will win (Prime Minister Hasina). Hasina is on relatively good terms with China, India and to a lesser extent Russia. Sheikh Hasina is not particularly well liked by Washington. Usually these election cycles come with some violence and 10-50 deaths after which life continues as usual.

 
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