Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread

[Cooper]

^Yes the imbeded Telegram items are not displaying this morning.

"85%-90% interception rate" narrative not holding up in Israel, this is most likely a lower estimate of the real damage there, and of course does not include military damage, the civilian targets are just the spillover:

 

[Cooper]

I still think the comments on this thread underestimate how irrelevant the cost and capability of the American War Machine has to keep this up.

I am not in favor of it.... But the math doesn't matter ... This will continue regardless and I still think America will come out on top based off of our resource control and industry capability alone.

I get that's gonna get allllllllllllll the negative comments here.

But I bet in 2 years this will be nothing....and other than a couple trillion more irrelevant debt there will be zerrooooooo change....

The dollar will still be king. We will still have the most prolific military... And Russia and China will still be second class and NATO will still need us to protect them from their own stupidity

The political repercussions from the oil shock on the US economy and the military losses cannot be brushed aside.

This is the baseline from which we are starting:

 

[Caduceus]

Bro, could you give up on the super creative weird-speak and just write in normal sentences? It's getting a bit tedious and long-winded, we get it, you're a super smart creative writer inventing his own style with cut and paste "journalism" and AI. Just state your case simply without trying so hard to be different.

He seems to have a writing style similar to member "deepdiver" who was on the old RVF forum.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

The political repercussions from the oil shock on the US economy and the military losses cannot be brushed aside.

The guys I listen to on the economy say 3 to 4 weeks and then either we cry uncle, or our economy tanks.

Much less, what good does the bombing do? All it does is cause their people to support the govt. further. It is working against us. This is the likely scenario...

 

[expectation]

Apparently Trump tried to reach out to negotiate for a ceasefire. Unfortunately, in order for there to even be a negotiation, Israel will have to cease to exist.

 

[Aldebaran]

Bro, could you give up on the super creative weird-speak and just write in normal sentences? It's getting a bit tedious and long-winded, we get it, you're a super smart creative writer inventing his own style with cut and paste "journalism" and AI. Just state your case simply without trying so hard to be different.

At least his Russian alter ego has been quiet for awhile.

 

[expectation]

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran:

Any Arab or European country that expels the Israeli and American ambassadors from its territories will be granted full authorization and freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormuz starting tomorrow.

Spain removes ambassador to Israel.

Bangladesh gets oil passage.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

Apparently Trump tried to reach out to negotiate for a ceasefire. Unfortunately, in order for there to even be a negotiation, Israel will have to cease to exist.

4D Chess. Trump ends up causing Israel to collapse, and turns over the stock market ponzi scheme. Maybe that is the master plan. Okay, we know it isn't, but one can wish, LOL.

 

[Ember]

WSJ: Iran is exporting more oil through the Strait of Hormuz than before the start of the war.





The IRGC issues a statement on two of the three vessels struck this morning. 'Expres Room' and 'Mayuree Naree Bangkok'.





The withdrawal of the Spanish ambassador to Israel follows tensions over Spain's refusal to allow US aircraft to use Spanish airbases.

 

[Wutang]

The US Empire is dying right before our very eyes.

Wild times

If Vietnam or Afghanistan/Iraq didn't kill off the US empire then this won't either.

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

If Vietnam or Afghanistan/Iraq didn't kill off the US empire then this won't either.

That was a much different USA, full of Americans and not a 100 million foreigners, and living off the borrowed time of unsustainable debt, to pay these foreigners to live and breed. And Iran isn't Vietnam nor Afghanistan. Iran is those two combined, probably times 10.

 

[Ember]

Apparently Trump tried to reach out to negotiate for a ceasefire. Unfortunately, in order for there to even be a negotiation, Israel will have to cease to exist.

That sounds like hothead moment, a misquote, or a mistranslation, as in it could be '...cease to exist as a threat'. I doubt Ali Larijani has the authority to demand the removal of Israel as an condition for negotiations. Until it is repeated by either FM Araghchi, President Pezeshkian, or the new Supreme Leader, I would not give it much weight.

 

[Wutang]

That was a much different USA, full of Americans and not a 100 million foreigners, and living off the borrowed time of unsustainable debt, to pay these foreigners to live and breed. And Iran isn't Vietnam nor Afghanistan. Iran is those two combined, probably times 10.

This is absolutely delusional. You are comparing full on wars with full armies being deployed for mass land invasions that lasted for years to one where we're watching air strikes and drones and missiles being lobbied. Let me guess, you heard a guy in a podcast say this war is x10 more than both Vietnam and Afghanistan combined and that's why you believe it.

 

[expectation]

Another curious case of laundered casualties in the US where a death is announced locally and categorized as "non-hostile incident" while in reality, it happened while deployed to Central Command actions.

Obviously to manage damage control to their voters while war'ing on the cheap to avoid compensation of their families. Very disrespectful to the service member if this practice is true.

Latest one is US Marine Corporal Kevin Melendez, 19 years old, whom was killed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

The previous was Officer Davius, of NYPD serving in the 42nd Infantry Division in the US Army National Guard. He passed away as a result of a "medical episode" while in Kuwait supporting Operation Epic Fury. It is speculated he was killed via drone.

Also, because of this categorization - the family of the veteran will not be compensated for his death.

ABC News interviews an American that was able to live through a drone attack on a US Command Center in Kuwait. He said 6 service member were killed?

How many did CentCom report killed in combat so far?

 

[It_Is_My_Time]

This is absolutely delusional. You are comparing full on wars with full armies being deployed for mass land invasions that lasted for years to one where we're watching air strikes and drones and missiles being lobbied. Let me guess, you heard a guy in a podcast say this war is x10 more than both Vietnam and Afghanistan combined and that's why you believe it.

If we find an off ramp, you are correct, and I pray nightly that we do. If we don't, if Israel holds us to it, then yea, this is going to be the end of the US empire.

Rumor is Iran has a very high demand list for an off ramp. If true, then an off ramp may not be allowed.

 

[Ember]

If Vietnam or Afghanistan/Iraq didn't kill off the US empire then this won't either.

During these wars, the Greater American Empire was not in the process of being eclipsed by the Sino-Russian strategic partnership and BRICS. It is US empire hegemony that is 'dying'.

 

[Wutang]

During the Vietnam War the Soviet Union was actually already a peer rival and match for the US as opposed to just being in the process of potentially eclipsing the US and there was an actual fear that Communism was going to triumph globally after so many other countries had fallen to these regimes. We look back at things with knowledge of what the final result was but back then there was a real fear that USSR and it's allies were going to end triumphing. The situation was much more dire back then. The US also hadn't achieved global hegemony at that point so if anything the country was in a weaker position then which is the point I was making.

 

[Cooper]

 

[Ember]

@Wutang
Hegemony is not just based on military might. The period of American hegemony (unmatched global influence) that started following the end of the Second World War is known as the "American Century" or Pax Americana.

 

[Wutang]

Even your AI response said at the end that the world was bipolar since the Soviet Union was the rival superpower. After the Cold War the world became unipolar as the US was the remaining superpower. In other words, my contention that the US was actually in a weaker position back during the Vietnam War era but still managed to not survive but eventually achieving a unipolar world has truth to it has some legs to it.

Following this reasoning, if the US could not only survive but actually advance in its global status after the Vietnam War which was a much bigger endeavor then I don't see why a war like this is going to spell the doom of the US.