The Cuba Thread

[LaAguilaNegra]

This is two-faced Sheinbaum in action. Trump's busy and easily distracted but Lil Marco should definitely take notes. Yesterday Sheinbaum following Trump remarks said she 'would increase communication and cooperation' with DC, which is also not the first one she's making similar ingenuine remarks to buy time or brush off Orange Man. Yet at the same time Mexico keeps sending oil tankers to Cuba, which comes after Sheinbaum's previous mealy mouthed promise not supply the Cubans with oil anymore.

However due to Venezuelan oil supplies being blockaded and soon redirected to the US the Cubans need a different supplier to not see their communist regime crumble, and to the rescue comes Sheinbaum. As Rep. Carlos Giminez explains below, Cuban government is broke and lacking reserves and these oil supplies are likely on the Mexican government's tab (or third parties) ergo they are subsidizing and directly involved in maintaining the Castro regime in Havana.

The noose around the Cubans neck is tightening fast, as forecasted the fall of Maduro and turning of the Chavista regime will be the stepping stone to booting the commies out of Havana. Trump Administration has declared a National Emergency over Cuba and will impose heavy sanctions on any state supplying the Cubans with oil, Cuba in turn declared a State of Emergency itself. Preliminary reports indicate that Havana's main oil supplier Sheinbaum got the message loud and clear and with the Venezuelans already out of the picture that means Havana is isolated, in a stranglehold and soon even further in the dark as fuel reserves are running out fast.

Havana's only hope now is increased support from Beijing and Moscow yet judging by the Venezuela debacle those are more bark than bite, and will likely not be able to do much if Washington decides the time has come. Like with Venezuela, Beijing and Moscow are deeply invested in the Cuban state and seeing yet another comprador regime fall is not good for their street credibility and international standing. The Chinese especially run all sorts of shady activities in Cuba and use the Cuban regime as a front for activities in the US.

Yet even in the hypothetical case of increased real and palpable support the fate of Havana will be decided in Washington. Havana's best bet at survival is the negotiation table and selling a Delcy Rodriguez style 180 turnaround - fingers crossed that Marco Rubio will let them get away with it, Lil Marco and a set of other Marielito Republicans carry some personal grudges.

 

[Pravoslavac]

The poor people of Cuba. Pray for them.

 

[FrancisK]

I have multiple relatives who have visited Cuba, they say it's boring which sounds about right as it's obviously not geared for tourism in any way but they also say it's very clean, safe and the people are lovely.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

The highest US diplomat present in Cuba, Michael Hammer, was harrassed/ attacked by a mob in the city of Trinidad. Hammer was not physically hurt but the mob did tell him he is a murderer and should leave. He is officially not the ambassador but the Chief of Mission. This is allegedly the second incident in a day.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

I have multiple relatives who have visited Cuba, they say it's boring which sounds about right as it's obviously not geared for tourism in any way but they also say it's very clean, safe and the people are lovely.

Video below doesn't look very clean and pleasant to me. Even 10-15 years ago, when there was a mild sense of optimism in Cuba due to Obama's soft stance and the tourism industry experiencing somewhat of boom (direct US-Cuba flights only resumed in 2016!), much of Cuba's historic city centers were looking decayed and sometimes even abandoned. Havana was the worst. Cienfuegos and Trinidad had some parts of their historic areas looking like a dump as well. Must be even worse in 2026.

This is especially blatant when compared to other Caribbean areas and cities. The historical areas of Cartagena look like a fairy tale world. The colonial parts of Santo Domingo, Santiago, Willemstad, Veracruz, Santa Marta, Port of Spain etc are all bustling with economic activity too, it's the beating heart of these cities. And then you step into Havana, which was one of the main Spanish centers in the Americas, and many of its colonial areas are decayed, unsafe, grimy and sometimes even abandoned. Very sad to see and the first thing Viceroy Rubio needs to do is bring the life back into these historic Spanish districts.

 

[FrancisK]

Video below doesn't look very clean and pleasant to me. Even 10-15 years ago, when there was a mild sense of optimism in Cuba due to Obama's soft stance and the tourism industry experiencing somewhat of boom (direct US-Cuba flights only resumed in 2016!), much of Cuba's historic city centers were looking decayed and sometimes even abandoned. Havana was the worst. Cienfuegos and Trinidad had some parts of their historic areas looking like a dump as well. Must be even worse in 2026.

This is especially blatant when compared to other Caribbean areas and cities. The historical areas of Cartagena look like a fairy tale world. The colonial parts of Santo Domingo, Santiago, Willemstad, Veracruz, Santa Marta, Port of Spain etc are all bustling with economic activity too, it's the beating heart of these cities. And then you step into Havana, which was one of the main Spanish centers in the Americas, and many of its colonial areas are decayed, unsafe, grimy and sometimes even abandoned. Very sad to see and the first thing Viceroy Rubio needs to do is bring the life back into these historic Spanish districts.

You know a lot more about the topic than I do it's not something I've ever researched I was just relaying their sentiments from their visit, certainly not vouching for Cuba in any way. I'm sure they were limited in what they were allowed to see and where they were allowed to go.

 

[Caduceus]

I have no love for socialism/communism or leftists in general, but the part in the Michael Moore movie "Sicko" where the 9/11 rescue workers go to Guantanamo Bay and shortly thereafter in Cuba to get free healthcare is gold.

(And yes, I know the movie is partially staged, and medical facilities are not that great there, but free or affordable healthcare is something should be available everywhere in the world, but most of all in rich countries. Dirt poor Cuba in this one important aspect, puts the US to shame.)

Start at minute @7:58

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

The current head of the Cuban regime Diaz-Canel is signaling willingness to reach a compromis. This is a substantial turn, Cuban officials have for decades publicly refused any sort of attempts to negotiate, meaning that the shortages are serious and accelerating. It also confirms that Cuba was highly dependent on Venezuelan oil and other resources, something which explains the Cuban intelligence agency DI rigid grip on Maduro.

 

[Caduceus]

I wonder if Putin and Trump have made a secret unwritten deal.....Russian hands off Venezuela and Cuba, in exchange for US hands off Iran and Ukraine. Each gets to manage their own hemisphere.

 

[Blade Runner]

Each gets to manage their own hemisphere.

I believe this is the case. And why shouldn't it be.

 

[Thomas More]

I think for a long time the consensus was being pushed that nations can no longer do land grabs to add to their territory. However, Russia did the land grab with Crimea, and now with the four additional Oblasts in Ukraine. I know there are justifications, but the point is that they were under the Ukrainian govt, and now they are under the Russian govt. This kind of change was supposedly off the table for a while.

Now that Russia has done this, it's clear that land grabs are back on the table. Israel is willing to grab some land to create Greater Israel. Obviously China wants Taiwan. China also wants to control the South China Sea, including areas currently claimed as offshore waters of several other nations. China would like some of the land along the Indian border. I can't help wondering if China would like to rule Mongolia again. Probably other nations around the world are considering this too.

I think it's clear that Trump looked at all of this, and decided the US can grab land too. It's our manifest destiny. If land grabbing is on the table, then the US is going to go all in. I think he will end up with some new US territory. The new game is to resist the other guys grabbing land, while making sure that we do grab some land.

 

[Caduceus]

I think for a long time the consensus was being pushed that nations can no longer do land grabs to add to their territory. However, Russia did the land grab with Crimea, and now with the four additional Oblasts in Ukraine. I know there are justifications, but the point is that they were under the Ukrainian govt, and now they are under the Russian govt. This kind of change was supposedly off the table for a while.

Now that Russia has done this, it's clear that land grabs are back on the table. Israel is willing to grab some land to create Greater Israel. Obviously China wants Taiwan. China also wants to control the South China Sea, including areas currently claimed as offshore waters of several other nations. China would like some of the land along the Indian border. I can't help wondering if China would like to rule Mongolia again. Probably other nations around the world are considering this too.

I think it's clear that Trump looked at all of this, and decided the US can grab land too. It's our manifest destiny. If land grabbing is on the table, then the US is going to go all in. I think he will end up with some new US territory. The new game is to resist the other guys grabbing land, while making sure that we do grab some land.

 

[TruckDriver9]

The Cuban energy crisis goes beyond fuel shortages. Most of their power generating capabilities comes from oil burning power plants and the system was already outdated and incapable of providing reliable power to the whole island, even when oil imports were uninterrupted.

Cuba Plunges Into Darkness After Electrical Grid Failure | OilPrice.com

For the fifth time this year, Cuba suffered a massive power outage, leaving Havana and western provinces without electricity due to a partial collapse of the electrical grid, a system heavily dependent on oil and suffering from deterioration and import shortfalls.

oilprice.com

Now with Venezuela out of the picture and new sanctions in play, the situation will only get worse.