The population boom and cycle thread

[Blade Runner]

I have been meaning to make this thread for a while, as I see the combination of the material world and the human social experiment, encounter or community something that can't be disentangled. That is, man as a reasonable creature unlike animals, being created in the image of God, can attain a likeness to Him, but largely he goes along en masse with more characteristics that resemble animal or tribal groups, and thus groupthink. Since the basis of groupthink and community cooperation is survival, it comes to fore that the modern ways of living that get further and further away from survival threats or implications, make us more and more mental, and less and less an honest combination of the physical/biological and reasonable. Efficiency and innovation have therefore brought us into a realm or modern age, for the time being, where population booms are possible and with less stressors on life, and increasing population, there is a necessary increase in mediocrity or worse, which means on average less fitness for any given individual. Well, aren't there corresponding increases in higher fitness individuals? Yes, but only in absolute measurements and as humans are a collective with social interactions and varying spheres of community (local, regional, national) the single individuals in certain places can have either more, or less, impact on the total of the population, but only in the advent of technology. So what's the point of this thread? It is to explain and explore the general idea of behavioral sink and why the population can either sense, or feels strongly, that the people that surround them are getting worse, weaker, or aren't up to a standard that they might compare them to. It doesn't have to be that populations fall and this self corrects, theoretically, as technology could advance (keep advancing?) until the sun blows up or fades away. But what we see in human populations and behavior is that what goes along with population booms is an increase in a lot of imaginary things, which in the modern world are largely associated with created forms of "money", debt (future money) and otherwise. These include welfare, bailouts, and other supports for incompetence that are only held up by the diminishing numbers of productive people. What's more, there are elite power brokers among humans that also advance scenarios of population decline, talked about frequently on the forum. It has become my thesis that all, or most, of the problems in the world (as seen by humans, an important point) are ecological and balance problems related to dysgenics or qualities that are detrimental to humans for a cycle, but persist to hurt men, women, and families. Since most religions, and certainly Christianity, teach that the path of the Way is narrow, a purely mathematical approach and view of human population boom shows that "be fruitful and multiply" is a vestige of the old world of difficult survival, and has become a tradeoff in the modern age of "multiply" going with "non-fruitful". Whether we like it or not, humans as large groups only act well or in accordance with a better (I don't want to use "good" here, though one could) mode of living only if they are constrained by real survival realities. Overall, this thread is not to bring people down but to clarify the reality of the tradeoffs in the world, and that modernity can give you certain material things, but you will lose other human family or generational ones, as a result - that is, until a type of creative destruction takes place. One that many think is coming, but of course, we could be wrong in expecting, or timing it.

 

[Blade Runner]

I think this is relevant to the general idea that I have put forth. I am finishing up listening to it but the guys here talk about how social and technological periods of change majorly disrupted human interaction in the past, and we have that going on once again. Check it out:

 

[Caduceus]

I have been meaning to make this thread for a while, as I see the combination of the material world and the human social experiment, encounter or community something that can't be disentangled. That is, man as a reasonable creature unlike animals, being created in the image of God, can attain a likeness to Him, but largely he goes along en masse with more characteristics that resemble animal or tribal groups, and thus groupthink. Since the basis of groupthink and community cooperation is survival, it comes to fore that the modern ways of living that get further and further away from survival threats or implications, make us more and more mental, and less and less an honest combination of the physical/biological and reasonable. Efficiency and innovation have therefore brought us into a realm or modern age, for the time being, where population booms are possible and with less stressors on life, and increasing population, there is a necessary increase in mediocrity or worse, which means on average less fitness for any given individual. Well, aren't there corresponding increases in higher fitness individuals? Yes, but only in absolute measurements and as humans are a collective with social interactions and varying spheres of community (local, regional, national) the single individuals in certain places can have either more, or less, impact on the total of the population, but only in the advent of technology. So what's the point of this thread? It is to explain and explore the general idea of behavioral sink and why the population can either sense, or feels strongly, that the people that surround them are getting worse, weaker, or aren't up to a standard that they might compare them to. It doesn't have to be that populations fall and this self corrects, theoretically, as technology could advance (keep advancing?) until the sun blows up or fades away. But what we see in human populations and behavior is that what goes along with population booms is an increase in a lot of imaginary things, which in the modern world are largely associated with created forms of "money", debt (future money) and otherwise. These include welfare, bailouts, and other supports for incompetence that are only held up by the diminishing numbers of productive people. What's more, there are elite power brokers among humans that also advance scenarios of population decline, talked about frequently on the forum. It has become my thesis that all, or most, of the problems in the world (as seen by humans, an important point) are ecological and balance problems related to dysgenics or qualities that are detrimental to humans for a cycle, but persist to hurt men, women, and families. Since most religions, and certainly Christianity, teach that the path of the Way is narrow, a purely mathematical approach and view of human population boom shows that "be fruitful and multiply" is a vestige of the old world of difficult survival, and has become a tradeoff in the modern age of "multiply" going with "non-fruitful". Whether we like it or not, humans as large groups only act well or in accordance with a better (I don't want to use "good" here, though one could) mode of living only if they are constrained by real survival realities. Overall, this thread is not to bring people down but to clarify the reality of the tradeoffs in the world, and that modernity can give you certain material things, but you will lose other human family or generational ones, as a result - that is, until a type of creative destruction takes place. One that many think is coming, but of course, we could be wrong in expecting, or timing it.

 

[Blade Runner]

If you don't want to read a complex idea or opine on it, just go on to another thread.

 

[magoo]

Edited (text by Blade Runner):

I have been meaning to make this thread for a while, as I see the combination of the material world and the human social experiment, encounter or community something that can't be disentangled. That is, man as a reasonable creature unlike animals, being created in the image of God, can attain a likeness to Him, but largely he goes along en masse with more characteristics that resemble animal or tribal groups, and thus groupthink.

Since the basis of groupthink and community cooperation is survival, it comes to fore that the modern ways of living that get further and further away from survival threats or implications, make us more and more mental, and less and less an honest combination of the physical/biological and reasonable.

Efficiency and innovation have therefore brought us into a realm or modern age, for the time being, where population booms are possible and with less stressors on life, and increasing population, there is a necessary increase in mediocrity or worse, which means on average less fitness for any given individual.

Well, aren't there corresponding increases in higher fitness individuals? Yes, but only in absolute measurements and as humans are a collective with social interactions and varying spheres of community (local, regional, national) the single individuals in certain places can have either more, or less, impact on the total of the population, but only in the advent of technology.

So what's the point of this thread? It is to explain and explore the general idea of behavioral sink and why the population can either sense, or feels strongly, that the people that surround them are getting worse, weaker, or aren't up to a standard that they might compare them to.

It doesn't have to be that populations fall and this self corrects, theoretically, as technology could advance (keep advancing?) until the sun blows up or fades away. But what we see in human populations and behavior is that what goes along with population booms is an increase in a lot of imaginary things, which in the modern world are largely associated with created forms of "money", debt (future money) and otherwise. These include welfare, bailouts, and other supports for incompetence that are only held up by the diminishing numbers of productive people. What's more, there are elite power brokers among humans that also advance scenarios of population decline, talked about frequently on the forum.

It has become my thesis that all, or most, of the problems in the world (as seen by humans, an important point) are ecological and balance problems related to dysgenics or qualities that are detrimental to humans for a cycle, but persist to hurt men, women, and families.

Since most religions, and certainly Christianity, teach that the path of the Way is narrow, a purely mathematical approach and view of human population boom shows that "be fruitful and multiply" is a vestige of the old world of difficult survival, and has become a tradeoff in the modern age of "multiply" going with "non-fruitful". Whether we like it or not, humans as large groups only act well or in accordance with a better (I don't want to use "good" here, though one could) mode of living only if they are constrained by real survival realities.

Overall, this thread is not to bring people down but to clarify the reality of the tradeoffs in the world, and that modernity can give you certain material things, but you will lose other human family or generational ones, as a result - that is, until a type of creative destruction takes place. One that many think is coming, but of course, we could be wrong in expecting, or timing it.

 

[SpyofMoses]

I like this idea, and your general train of thought. I think about the Tower of Babel a lot as a sort of allegory for where we are now:

People have figured out how to farm, how to build cities, how to make tech that can even launch us into space. They talk about colonizing the stars, reaching the singularity, becoming immortal. Many languages are dying as we're all speaking a dwindling number of them as the global supply chain necessitates a "lingua franca." And we need the global supply chain to keep the modern world going.

This leads to why the Tower of Babel looks so similar to what's going on today.

It's kinda confusing to think that the Holy Spirit simply said "let's distort their language" just to do it. Perhaps this part of the story is just about the behavioral sink that you mention. As civilization becomes more capable of ensuring everyone survives, more people who are too weak/dumb to contribute to civilization slowly but surely bring it to a halt. Perhaps this is a cycle that humanity has been through multiple times?

When I have the chance, I'll give the video posted above a listen. But so far, interesting thread!

 

[magoo]

If I understand correctly you´re stating comfort and technological advancement leads to civilizational decay?

This is known from the aphorism "good times create weak men".

Babel tower was destroyed because man were too proud. And it seems we are heading in that direction again.

 

[Blade Runner]

If I understand correctly you´re stating comfort and technological advancement leads to civilizational decay?

This is known from the aphorism "good times create weak men".

Babel tower was destroyed because man were too proud. And it seems we are heading in that direction again.

It's more than this. Have a look at the video as Rudyard apparently has done videos on the mouse experiment and behavioral sink, effects that are much worse than people realize.

 

[Australia Sucks]

I think this is relevant to the general idea that I have put forth. I am finishing up listening to it but the guys here talk about how social and technological periods of change majorly disrupted human interaction in the past, and we have that going on once again. Check it out:

Civil war in USA within a year sounds very extreme and unlikely. Could it happen at some point in the future yes. Will it happen this year, highly unlikely.

 

[Thomas More]

If you don't want to read a complex idea or opine on it, just go on to another thread.

I considered posting the same wall of text meme. I've never known you to forget the use of paragraphs before. Perhaps you were in an elevated mood when you made the OP? Could you restate your main points in a more accessible way?

 

[Northern Pilgrim]

In defense of @Blade Runner, it took just slightly over 2 mins to read his original post in this thread, a thread that I have been looking forward to him making for a while now.

The main point IMO is that humans don't do well in large groups where there is no accountability.
If you read the old Testament, there are a lot of "checks and balances" put in place by God to keep the children of Israel from going off the rails.

 

[Blade Runner]

In defense of @Blade Runner, it took just slightly over 2 mins to read his original post in this thread, a thread that I have been looking forward to him making for a while now.

The main point IMO is that humans don't do well in large groups where there is no accountability.
If you read the old Testament, there are a lot of "checks and balances" put in place by God to keep the children of Israel from going off the rails.

The larger point is that the explanation of what's going on, and in a sense, why we even have to have a forum like this - few of us would be here if the society and intersex dynamics were normal and we had families and thus a "future" - is due to a long period of unchecked survival and peace in the developed world, at least. That kind of a run creates a surplus of people, average and below average people as well, and the M:F ratio gets so skewed that women have even fewer checks on their predisposition for bad behavior and/or hypergamy. As they gain in societal prominence, or without a response to shame or constrain, the society progressively gets crazier. Of course, this can't last, but we'll keep the attempts at lying and papering over the fake economy with printed money as long as possible.

What we don't know is how it'll all look as increasingly only 10%, then single digits, then crazy small minorities of people can actually afford what everyone has always wanted, and has been propagandized with as what they deserve, in terms of living circumstances or standard of living/ease of living.

 

[SCW]

Very concerning to view and consider, immensely grateful to God for bringing my wife and I together and for our children, I can't imagine what the future will look like for them when they get to my age.



Summarized with https://gist.ly/youtube-summarizer

Spoiler: Click to read

## The Global Birth Gap: Understanding the Crisis of Declining Fertility

The world is undergoing a profound demographic transformation. For decades, fears of a "population bomb" dominated public discourse, with dire predictions of overcrowded cities, resource shortages, and environmental collapse. Yet, as we move deeper into the 21st century, a new and unexpected crisis has emerged: the birth gap. Across the globe, birth rates are falling, populations are aging, and societies are grappling with the consequences of fewer children and more elderly citizens. This article explores the causes, consequences, and possible solutions to the birth gap, drawing on personal stories, expert insights, and hard data.

### From Population Bomb to Population Bust

In the late 1960s, the idea of a population explosion captured the public imagination. Influential voices like Dr. Paul Ehrlich warned of catastrophic consequences if humanity failed to control its numbers. Governments and organizations responded with policies aimed at reducing birth rates, often with controversial measures. For decades, the focus remained on curbing population growth, especially in developing countries.

But as the years passed, a quiet revolution was taking place. Birth rates in industrialized nations began to fall, often below the "replacement level" of 2.1 children per woman—the rate needed to maintain a stable population. Today, 75% of the world's population lives in countries below this tipping point. The consequences are far-reaching and, in many cases, unprecedented.

### The Birth Gap: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

The birth gap refers to the growing disparity between the number of older people retiring and the number of young people entering the workforce. In countries like Japan, Italy, Germany, and South Korea, the number of newborns is less than half the number of people approaching retirement age. This imbalance has profound social and economic implications.

#### Economic Consequences

- **Shrinking Workforce:** Fewer young people mean fewer workers to support the economy, pay taxes, and fund social services.
- **Rising Pension and Healthcare Costs:** As the population ages, the burden of supporting retirees grows heavier, straining pension systems and healthcare infrastructure.
- **Business Challenges:** Companies struggle to find employees, and as the customer base shrinks, many businesses close their doors.
- **Housing and Urban Decay:** With fewer families and more elderly living alone, communities face declining property values, abandoned homes, and empty schools.

#### Social Consequences

- **Loneliness and Isolation:** Aging societies see a rise in elderly people living and dying alone, with fewer family members to provide support.
- **Loss of Community:** School closures and declining youth populations erode the sense of community, leaving towns and cities feeling empty and disconnected.
- **Changing Family Structures:** The rise in childlessness means fewer people experience the joys and challenges of parenthood, altering the fabric of society.

### The Mystery of Declining Birth Rates

One of the most puzzling aspects of the birth gap is its sudden and simultaneous appearance across diverse cultures and economies. In the early 1970s, countries as different as Japan, Italy, and Germany saw their birth rates plummet at almost the same time. The reasons for this decline are complex and multifaceted.

#### Not Just Smaller Families: The Rise of Childlessness

Contrary to popular belief, the decline in birth rates is not primarily due to families choosing to have fewer children. Data shows that those who become parents continue to have two, three, or even four children, much as they did in previous generations. The real shift is in the number of people who never become parents at all.

- **Explosion in Childlessness:** In Japan, childlessness rose from 1 in 20 women in 1974 to 1 in 3 by 1990. Italy saw a similar trend, with childlessness increasing from 1 in 30 to 1 in 5 in just three years.
- **Unplanned Childlessness:** Most people who remain childless did not plan it that way. Delayed parenthood, economic uncertainty, and difficulty finding suitable partners contribute to this phenomenon.

#### The Role of Economic and Social Turmoil

Major crises often trigger spikes in childlessness. The 1973 oil shock in Japan and Italy, the 1990s currency crisis in South Korea, the 1968 student protests in Germany, and the 2007 financial meltdown in the US all coincided with sharp increases in the number of people who never have children.

#### The Vitality Curve and Reproductive Synchrony

Research reveals a "vitality curve"—a bell-shaped distribution showing the age at which most people become parents. When parenthood is delayed, the curve flattens, and fewer people ever cross the threshold into parenthood. The average age of parenthood acts as a lock, limiting the number of people who will become parents. Societies that lose "reproductive synchrony"—the tendency for people to start families at similar ages—see higher rates of childlessness.

### Personal Stories: The Human Side of the Birth Gap

Behind the statistics are millions of personal stories—of hope, heartbreak, and regret.

#### The Challenge of Delayed Parenthood

Many young people today prioritize education, career, and personal development, often postponing marriage and children until their 30s or later. While this can lead to greater financial stability and personal fulfillment, it also increases the risk of unplanned childlessness.

- **Fertility Declines with Age:** As women age, the number and quality of their eggs decrease, making it harder to conceive. Technologies like egg freezing offer hope but are not guaranteed solutions.
- **The Race Against Time:** Finding a partner and starting a family is increasingly seen as a race, with the odds diminishing as the years pass.

#### The Grief of Unplanned Childlessness

For those who hoped to have children but never did, the sense of loss can be profound. Support groups and online communities have emerged to help people process their grief and find meaning in their lives.

- **Men and Women Affected:** While women are more likely to talk openly about childlessness, men also experience deep feelings of loss and isolation.
- **Changing Minds Too Late:** Some people change their minds about wanting children only to find that it is too late biologically or logistically.

#### Adoption: A Limited Solution

Adoption is often seen as an alternative for those unable to have biological children. However, the demand for adoptable infants far exceeds supply, and international adoption is becoming more difficult as countries prioritize domestic placements.

### The Global Spread of the Birth Gap

The birth gap is no longer confined to wealthy, industrialized nations. Latin America, India, and even parts of Africa are experiencing declining birth rates and rising childlessness.

#### India: A Surprising Shift

Despite its reputation for large families, India has seen births fall by over 20% since 2001. By 2024, 90% of Indian states were below replacement level, with small families and increased childlessness becoming the norm.

#### Africa: The Next Frontier

Sub-Saharan Africa, long seen as the exception, is now following the same downward path. Women are having fewer children, and the trend toward delayed parenthood is beginning to take hold.

#### Migration: A Double-Edged Sword

While immigration can help offset population decline in receiving countries, it often exacerbates the problem in countries of origin, leading to "brain drain" and leaving behind aging populations with few young people to support them.

### The Economic and Social Challenges Ahead

The consequences of the birth gap are already being felt in communities around the world.

#### Economic Retronomics

As populations shrink, economies must adapt to a new reality of declining growth. This requires fundamental changes in government policy, pension systems, and business models.

- **Retrofitting Economies:** Nations must learn to function with fewer workers, customers, and taxpayers.
- **Reinventing Government:** Pay-as-you-go pension systems become unsustainable when there are two retirees for every worker.
- **Productivity Challenges:** Older workforces are less productive, and automation cannot fully replace the economic contributions of humans—especially since robots do not pay taxes.

#### Social Terrain Incognita

The social consequences are even more challenging to address.

- **Lonely Yesterlands:** Towns and cities with declining populations face empty playgrounds, abandoned schools, and nursing homes filled to capacity.
- **Loss of Community:** The erosion of family structures and community ties leads to increased loneliness and isolation, especially among the elderly.

### Why Aren't We Talking About This?

Despite the scale of the crisis, public awareness remains low. Many people still worry about overpopulation, not realizing that the real threat is underpopulation and the birth gap.

- **Cultural Blind Spots:** In many societies, the idea of declining birth rates is seen as a minor issue or even a positive development.
- **Policy Gaps:** Governments and organizations often focus on removing barriers to workforce participation rather than addressing the root causes of declining fertility.

### Possible Solutions: Where Do We Go From Here?

Addressing the birth gap requires a multifaceted approach, with education and awareness at its core.

#### Education and Awareness

- **Realistic Information:** Young people need accurate data about the likelihood of becoming parents at different ages, so they can make informed choices.
- **Partner Finding:** Recognizing that finding a suitable partner is key to starting a family, and that dating is a race against time.

#### Supporting Younger Parenthood

- **Streamlined Education:** Shifting towards lifelong learning and allowing students to start careers sooner.
- **Employer Transparency:** Companies should publish data on how many employees go on to become parents, helping young people choose supportive workplaces.
- **Policy Focus:** Government policies should prioritize support for younger parents, making it easier to start families earlier in life.

#### Reinventing Societies

- **Building Around the Young:** Societies that survive the birth gap crisis will be those that rebuild their institutions, economies, and cultures around the needs of young people and families.
- **Encouraging Synchrony:** Promoting social synchronization, so more people reach the stage of life for dating, bonding, and starting families at the same time.

### The False Promise and the Real Risk

At the heart of the birth gap crisis is a false promise: that young people can have it all—education, career, travel, and family—without compromise. But nature does not wait, and the risk of missing out on family is real and growing.

- **No Right Time:** There is no perfect moment to start a family, and waiting too long can mean missing the opportunity altogether.
- **Personal Choices:** The decision to have children is deeply personal, but societal structures and cultural expectations play a significant role.

### Conclusion: Facing the Demographic Winter

The birth gap is a complex and multifaceted crisis, touching every aspect of society—from economics and politics to personal relationships and community life. It is driven not by a trend toward smaller families, but by a rise in unplanned childlessness, often triggered by delayed parenthood and social or economic uncertainty.

To address this challenge, societies must rethink their priorities, support younger parenthood, and foster greater awareness of the realities of fertility and family formation. The future depends on our ability to adapt, innovate, and rebuild around the needs of the young. Only then can we hope to reverse the birth gap and ensure vibrant, thriving communities for generations to come.