The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread

I pray this is not accurate.


That's actually a reasonable choice.

Targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, while politically beneficial for Netanyahu, it wouldn't change the situation. It's unlikely that Israel would be able to strike and destroy all nuclear facilities, and even if, it would not affect Iranian warfighting capabilities - they would still be able to retailate with ballistic missiles.

Targeting Iranian oil infrastructure, while attractive for Israel as it would cause internal strife in Iran and limit their revenue streams, it would come at a high political price. Any attack on Iranian energy sector, would immediately push the price of a barrel into triple digits. Bad news for all oil importers including Israel itself, but especially bad for the largest oil importer: China, which is also the largest consumer of Iranian oil - Iran exports around 90% of its oil to China, which represents around 15% of all Chinese imports. Rising oil prices would increase Russian revenue streams, undoing western sanctions. Not to mention that higher fuel prices just weeks before US elections is not something that team Harris/Biden would like to see. So even without any Iranian response, Israel would be facing growing political pressure from both China and America at the same time. And if Iran chose to respond and closed the Strait of Hormuz, we would be facing a global energy crisis which would turn even more countries against Israel.

This leaves Iranian military bases as the most sensible choice. There's a wide selection of targets for the Israelis to choose from - they could go big and attack high value targets such as IRGC HQ or the Iranian missile forces, trying to "defang" their strike capabilities. Or, on the contrary, they could attack some third rate airstrip, knowing that its of little to no value for the Iranians, just to save face.
 
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I pray this is not accurate.


Nothing is accurate:

"Hey, Net-N-Yoo-Hoo called, Kamala answered the phone and the jew thought it was Joe and started telling him he's gonna nuke Iran (this time for real) but he swore not to use real nukes and to give us a call before we call Iran and warn them ahead of time... meanwhile, nobody will get hurt, nothing will actually happen, and we'll all get rich firing missles at ourselves while pretending to fire them at each other."
 

So Israel, who claims (mistakenly) to have the best air-defense system in the world, now wants the THAAD. If you got the best, why do you need something better? Hell, if the THAAD was such a great piece of air defense why didn’t we send a couple to Ukraine? Zelensky is begging for more air defense. The reason is simple — reportedly, there are only nine launchers in the entire world. Each launcher carries eight missiles, which means if Iran fires 100 missiles, 92% of them will be safe from THAAD.
 
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