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The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread

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"Helicopter crash carrying Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. What is known as of 18:00 May 19, 2024
▪️ The incident occurred during the return of Ibrahim Raisi’s delegation from the ceremony of launching a hydroelectric complex on the Araz River on the border with Azerbaijan.
▪️ In total, there were three helicopters in the group: two successfully reached the landing site, but the one in which the President of the Islamic Republic was located disappeared from the radar.
▪️ The approximate location of the hard landing of the aircraft is located near the village of Uzi, East Azerbaijan province. The settlement is located in a high-mountain, inaccessible area, which, together with difficult weather conditions, further complicates the search.
▪️ Contrary to reports circulating on the Internet, the aircraft has not yet been found, and rescue efforts continue. There is currently no information about the condition of Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, as well as the crew and other passengers.
▪️ The official version of the accident is also still missing. The real reason for what happened may well be just a pilot error, but if it is not possible to save the President of Iran, the masses will immediately blame Israel for what happened.
▪️Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei held an emergency meeting of the Security Council of the Islamic Republic in connection with current events, although no high-profile measures have yet been taken at the highest state level."


 
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FYI after partial ethnic cleansing and occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) in November 2020, Azerbaijan invited Israel to open up covert bases in occupied regions for recon and other operations. Why? Because for almost 10 years before the 2020 war Israelis were top arms supplier to Azerbaijan including smart and guided munitions and drones. Israel didn’t waste a minute after moving to those occupied regions. Remember the November 27, 2020 assassination of another top Iranian Nuclear scientist inside Iran near the border?

And, after a complete ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh in September of 2023 (2 weeks before October 7th showdown), Israel has taken equal control of those territories along with Azeris.

Iran not once but at least a dozen times has warned Azeris they’re playing with fire.

I’m counting down the minutes waiting for the known responsible party to show itself.
 
We know things are not going good for Israel at all. We also know that Iran has been very patient and not striking back uncontrollably. We know Israel's only hope is to bring the USA into this conflict, and I doubt that will even be enough to win this war. I pray that is not what this move was, a move to push Iran to become aggressive and in turn give the USA an excuse to send our troops over there. I fear that is exactly what this was though.
 
We know things are not going good for Israel at all. We also know that Iran has been very patient and not striking back uncontrollably. We know Israel's only hope is to bring the USA into this conflict, and I doubt that will even be enough to win this war. I pray that is not what this move was, a move to push Iran to become aggressive and in turn give the USA an excuse to send our troops over there. I fear that is exactly what this was thought.
I think the last thing the U.S. wants is to engage in a wider conflict with Iran. And same goes for Iran. Hence why both nations collaborated together through secured channels and mediators to manage and control Iran’s announced retaliation against Israel on April 14th.

In addition, the Biden administration’s promise for 2024 election is Peace, and the overall U.S. foreign policy is to shift its focus and resources from the Middle East to Eastern Asia.

On another note, the overall sentiment amongst the Iranian public is that this was an accident. Also, I’ve been following the Iranian Media coverage since the beginning, and they too are portraying the news as an accident with a nice and cleaver touch though. They keep reminding everyone the tense relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan.

As a result, I think the U.S. and Iran will continue collaborating through secured channels, so Israelis (and it’s satellites like Azeris) are truly fucked.
 
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I think the last thing the U.S. wants is to engage in a wider conflict with Iran. And same goes for Iran. Hence why both nations collaborated together through secured channels and mediators to manage and control Iran’s announced retaliation against Israel on April 14th.

In addition, the Biden administration’s promise for 2024 election is Peace, and the overall U.S. foreign policy is to shift its focus and resources from the Middle East to Eastern Asia.

On another note, the overall sentiment amongst the Iranian public is that this was an accident. Also, I’ve been following the Iranian Media coverage since the beginning, and they too are portraying the news as an accident with a nice and cleaver touch though. They keep reminding everyone the tense relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan.

As a result, I think the U.S. and Iran will continue collaborating through secured channels, so Israelis (and it’s satellites like Azeris) are truly fucked.

LATEST UPDATE:
Search & Rescue teams have located the helicopter carrying both Iran’s President and Foreign Minister. Awaiting confirmation on their health.
Yes, certainly. Iran knows time is on its side. Israel/the USA are collapsing due to diversity, open borders, and the destruction of the family unit. Iran, if allowed, could sit and wait 20 years, doing what they are doing, and have won the war.

The USA can't afford it, financially, spiritually, and seeing the young men here rather side against the govt. than signing up to fight for it would be the final blow to this satanic regime.

But Israel needs it, desperately. Things are going very badly for them in Gaza. Hezbollah is upping their attacks now using drones and striking further into the country. The Houthi's are clowning on the US Navy and still attacking ships at will. And now Israel thought the war was over in Northern Gaza, Hamas has returned and started attacking them again in this region. Israel is desperate, Israel controls the USA, so if Israel demands the USA fight for them, I think that is what we will see the US regime try to do.

If Iran claims this is an accident, whether it was or not, then that signals they really want to just stay on the sidelines and continue as is, because they are winning. So, that is great news for all of us, and bad news for Israel if they can't drag in Iran, to drag in the USA to save them.
 
It looks very foggy in the crash area. The chances for pilot error are pretty high.
Reminds me of the crash that killed the Polish president in Russia in 2010. It was (most likely) just an accident due to the fog.

This too is probably an accident, but if it wasn't I don't see it being in Iran's interest to announce anything else. They especially don't want to lose face now after that attack on Israel made them look so powerful.
 
Reminds me of the crash that killed the Polish president in Russia in 2010. It was (most likely) just an accident due to the fog.

This too is probably an accident, but if it wasn't I don't see it being in Iran's interest to announce anything else. They especially don't want to lose face now after that attack on Israel made them look so powerful.
I’ve long stopped believing in such high-level accidents: be it in the air, over the land or water regardless of terrain.

An average person conducts preparatory, planning and backup activities considering weather, necessity, risks, time, etc. for even short travels/trips let alone long-distance ones. The argument of an accident occurring amongst the high-level elites, clans, and governments around the world who are 24/7 surrounded with teams of highly skilled experts who conduct all sorts of operations on a non-stop basis sounds highly impossible for me.
It helps me analyze things better when I completely rule out the possibility of accidents.
 
I’ve long stopped believing in such high-level accidents: be it in the air, over the land or water regardless of terrain.

An average person conducts preparatory, planning and backup activities considering weather, necessity, risks, time, etc. for even short travels/trips let alone long-distance ones. The argument of an accident occurring amongst the high-level elites, clans, and governments around the world who are 24/7 surrounded with teams of highly skilled experts who conduct all sorts of operations on a non-stop basis sounds highly impossible for me.
It helps me analyze things better when I completely rule out the possibility of accidents.

In this case as well, the fact that there were 3 choppers in that party and that the one with Raisi and the VIPs was the one that crashed lends me to believe it wasn't an accident.
 
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