The Iran and Wider Middle East Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
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Escobar is doubling down, I'm pretty skeptical about this, a lot of things have to happen for this to be true:
-Russian intel has to be aware of the nature of the Israeli operation - if it was just a "regular" conventional bombing mission, they would have let it go
-Russia taking the decision to shoot that plane down
-Russia being capable of shooting down the F-35 over Jordan. Maybe they could, with the R37M, this would mean that they can track and target F-35s from a long distance.
-Russian intel has to be aware of the nature of the Israeli operation - if it was just a "regular" conventional bombing mission, they would have let it go
-Russia taking the decision to shoot that plane down
-Russia being capable of shooting down the F-35 over Jordan. Maybe they could, with the R37M, this would mean that they can track and target F-35s from a long distance.
I find this report extremely doubtful as well. I like to read Escobar, but he clearly has an agenda.
The fact he is doubling down on his permanently reduces his credibility in my eyes.
If these tweets and/or accounts get nuked this will have no context. For the sake of forum users who don't have twitter/X and for preserving the information, do you mind just copy pasting the full text below when you share?
Full text:
@RealPepeEscobar
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EXCLUSIVETHE REAL STORY OF THE ISRAELI COUNTER RESPONSEFrom a very high level intel source.In Asia.NOT Russia-China.Although the strategic partnership, of course, exchanges at the highest level 24-7.Confirmed and re-confirmed.It will be great to know what Sy Hersh hears from his Beltway sources.Here we go.Israel initially chose to respond with extreme force.An F-35 loaded with a nuclear bomb was sent east over Jordan.The mission: cause a high-altitude detonation over Iran that would provoke a surge in the high-capacity power lines, crippling Iran's electric grid, as well as disabling all electronic devices.An EMP attack.However...... As the Israeli F-35 was leaving Jordanian airspace it was shot down by the Russian Air Force. Hence the publicised version of the Israeli counter response was such a travesty.In the end all sides decided not to publicise the real news - to de-escalate what could well turn into WWIII.
7:51 PM · Apr 20, 2024
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@RealScottRitter
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Pepe Escobar has written a post where he reports that an Israeli F-35 carrying a nuclear weapon was shot down over Jordan by a Russian fighter.While I respect Pepe as a journalist, his source is wrong.Israel would never take such a precipitous action. Not only would it provide public acknowledgment of Israeli nuclear weapons capability, thereby putting Israel in open violation of existing agreements between it and the U.S., it would also put Israel in violation of the 1968 Outer Space Treaty prohibiting the deployment and/or use of nuclear weapons in space and the Biden administration’s recent admonishments in this regard.Moreover, the scenario describes makes no sense in terms of the characterization of the weapons involved, both in terms of the alleged Russian-Israeli engagement, and what Israel would hope happens regarding EMP.This is, in every way shape and form nonsensical reporting.Pepe should retract his post.
5:32 AM · Apr 21, 2024
Full text:
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATEI now have TWO separate, definitive confirmations from TWO ultra high level intel sources from TWO separate Asian nations. Working to get a third - at least a partial acknowledgment.I moved to Asia 30 years ago. Built a unparalleled network. Trust my top sources a billion per cent.The original source that led to my first post reconfirmed he stands by it. His words:"I'm honestly surprised that people are surprised. Do they really think if something like this happened it's gonna be presented to them in front of their TVs? It's like history has taught them nothing." Working on a first column - probably out tomorrow.Many thanks to all who offered informed, sharp comment and criticism. This should be a collective effort to get to what might have happened: the shape of it, not necessarily the details as they were leaked.
7:56 PM · Apr 21, 2024
Full text:
@RealPepeEscobar
Follow
EXCLUSIVETHE REAL STORY OF THE ISRAELI COUNTER RESPONSEFrom a very high level intel source.In Asia.NOT Russia-China.Although the strategic partnership, of course, exchanges at the highest level 24-7.Confirmed and re-confirmed.It will be great to know what Sy Hersh hears from his Beltway sources.Here we go.Israel initially chose to respond with extreme force.An F-35 loaded with a nuclear bomb was sent east over Jordan.The mission: cause a high-altitude detonation over Iran that would provoke a surge in the high-capacity power lines, crippling Iran's electric grid, as well as disabling all electronic devices.An EMP attack.However...... As the Israeli F-35 was leaving Jordanian airspace it was shot down by the Russian Air Force. Hence the publicised version of the Israeli counter response was such a travesty.In the end all sides decided not to publicise the real news - to de-escalate what could well turn into WWIII.
7:51 PM · Apr 20, 2024
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@RealScottRitter
Follow
Pepe Escobar has written a post where he reports that an Israeli F-35 carrying a nuclear weapon was shot down over Jordan by a Russian fighter.While I respect Pepe as a journalist, his source is wrong.Israel would never take such a precipitous action. Not only would it provide public acknowledgment of Israeli nuclear weapons capability, thereby putting Israel in open violation of existing agreements between it and the U.S., it would also put Israel in violation of the 1968 Outer Space Treaty prohibiting the deployment and/or use of nuclear weapons in space and the Biden administration’s recent admonishments in this regard.Moreover, the scenario describes makes no sense in terms of the characterization of the weapons involved, both in terms of the alleged Russian-Israeli engagement, and what Israel would hope happens regarding EMP.This is, in every way shape and form nonsensical reporting.Pepe should retract his post.
5:32 AM · Apr 21, 2024
Full text:
VERY IMPORTANT UPDATEI now have TWO separate, definitive confirmations from TWO ultra high level intel sources from TWO separate Asian nations. Working to get a third - at least a partial acknowledgment.I moved to Asia 30 years ago. Built a unparalleled network. Trust my top sources a billion per cent.The original source that led to my first post reconfirmed he stands by it. His words:"I'm honestly surprised that people are surprised. Do they really think if something like this happened it's gonna be presented to them in front of their TVs? It's like history has taught them nothing." Working on a first column - probably out tomorrow.Many thanks to all who offered informed, sharp comment and criticism. This should be a collective effort to get to what might have happened: the shape of it, not necessarily the details as they were leaked.
7:56 PM · Apr 21, 2024
1-point warning for insults
Anything else? Glass of water? cup of coffee? I´m available for any other demands you might have. I already posted the damn thing. No other user posts the text of twitter. Ungrateful arrogant twat. What you should be saying is thanks for the share of info. If you find it so important you can do it. Like you did.
BTW what´s in there is true. Don´t know about atomic bombs blown in the sky or russian jets. But at least the cyberattack against Iran was planned. And was foiled.
Pepe's strong suit is geopolitical analysis stuff. I don't understand why he's branching into situation report posting. He had a similar (uncorroborated but highly escalatory) claim on Ukraine/Russia a few weeks back, right after the Moscow terror attack. This is strike 2.
There's lots of war/rumors of war stuff out there - even today, now that Congress re-upped war funding. Have to stay skeptical.
Also:
- How was Russia able to detect the plane, considering the distance from Russian bases in Syria, and the F-35 stealth capabilities (no such thing as perfect stealth but still) ?
- How were Russian planes even able to approach Jordanian air space without alerting Israeli, American and Jordanian air forces?
- What about other Israeli planes? Life isn't a movie where a lone maveric can take a whole country on his own - there should be a reserve plane carrying the same ordnance, just in case the first one had a malfunction, and escorts.
- What happened later ? Did the pilots survive ? Where's the wreckage ? What about CSAR ? Who secured the nuke ? etc.
They could be deliberately feeding him false intel, to nuke his credibility.
Or he had one Tom Clancy's novel too many.
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Looking at the map again, it would be possible for the Russian Su-35s or Su-57s to intercept from Syria the F-35s flying over the Jordanian northern panhandle, which runs along Syria's border. The F-35 is a slow plane and would be flying at Mach 1 in order to conserve fuel on a long mission, while the SU-35s can just scramble towards their target at Mach 2+ with no concern for fuel conservation.
The question is about the escorts, although the Russian Su-35s would defeat an F-15 escort by virtue of having twice the BVR range with the R37M missile vs AMRAAMs. as well the Israelis could have chosen not to fly F-15 escorts due to it being detectable by enemy radar.
In that scenario, the F-35 could have just aborted the mission and turned back as the coast wasn't clear.
Possibly, perhaps he trusted a source that was fed bad intel.
Interesting responses under this tweet. There are some anti-Iranian, but a lot anti-Israeli.
Full text:
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Now confirmed beyond any doubt: there is NO DAMAGE to the radar at Esfahan's S-300 siteNew satellite imagery from today, 22 April, shows for the first time a clear picture of the S-300 radar that was allegedly struck by Israeli quadcopters.
Experts had already pointed out that a missile impact was ruled out due to the lack of a significant crater, but now it can be confirmed that even the attack with quadcopters was fully repelled.
No damage to the radar can be observed, and the Israeli attack failed miserably and embarassingly.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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/ Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran: What are the facts?- In the early morning of April 19th, a single fighter jet, likely an F35, took off from an airbase inside Israel.
- The jet made its way into Iraqi airspace, carrying three air-launchable ballistic missiles (ALBM), likely of the 'ROCKS' or 'Silver Sparrow' type.
- Simultaneously, Israel mobilized one of its proxy groups inside Iran to launch at least three explosive-laden quadcopters at an S-300 radar near the 8th Shekari Airbase in Isfahan, attempting to disable it, in preparation for the upcoming missile strike.
- As the quadcopters approached their intended target, Iranian air defense autocannons engaged them, and successfully downed all three drones.
As for what happened next, there are two main theories:
1. When Israel found out about the failure of the quadcopters to disable the radar, they decided to abort the mission and fire or despose of their missiles above Iraq. Three detached missile boosters were found in Iraqi territory to corroborate this theory.
2. Israel decided to go ahead with the operation, and launched all three 'ROCKS' / 'Silver Sparrow' missiles at an unknown target in Isfahan, likely the 8th Shekari Airbase. As the missiles approached the Iranian border, they were detected and shot down by Iran's 15th of Khordad air defense system, based in the city of Dezful. This theory is corroborated by the testimony of at least one trusted source inside Iran.
Why Iran did not respond
Due to the failing nature of the operation, as well as the lack of Israel taking official responsibility, Iran concluded that it had effectively achieved its goal of restoring deterrence, and there was no need for an escalation based on such a limited strike which was meant only to save face, in stark contrast to the massive Iranian missile strike carried out against Israel five days earlier. Iran won an important victory and set a new equation for years to come.
@Middle_East_Spectator
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- In the early morning of April 19th, a single fighter jet, likely an F35, took off from an airbase inside Israel.
- The jet made its way into Iraqi airspace, carrying three air-launchable ballistic missiles (ALBM), likely of the 'ROCKS' or 'Silver Sparrow' type.
- Simultaneously, Israel mobilized one of its proxy groups inside Iran to launch at least three explosive-laden quadcopters at an S-300 radar near the 8th Shekari Airbase in Isfahan, attempting to disable it, in preparation for the upcoming missile strike.
- As the quadcopters approached their intended target, Iranian air defense autocannons engaged them, and successfully downed all three drones.
As for what happened next, there are two main theories:
1. When Israel found out about the failure of the quadcopters to disable the radar, they decided to abort the mission and fire or despose of their missiles above Iraq. Three detached missile boosters were found in Iraqi territory to corroborate this theory.
2. Israel decided to go ahead with the operation, and launched all three 'ROCKS' / 'Silver Sparrow' missiles at an unknown target in Isfahan, likely the 8th Shekari Airbase. As the missiles approached the Iranian border, they were detected and shot down by Iran's 15th of Khordad air defense system, based in the city of Dezful. This theory is corroborated by the testimony of at least one trusted source inside Iran.
Why Iran did not respond
Due to the failing nature of the operation, as well as the lack of Israel taking official responsibility, Iran concluded that it had effectively achieved its goal of restoring deterrence, and there was no need for an escalation based on such a limited strike which was meant only to save face, in stark contrast to the massive Iranian missile strike carried out against Israel five days earlier. Iran won an important victory and set a new equation for years to come.
@Middle_East_Spectator
This scenario is much more plausible, and probable, than the nuke story. I wouldn't be surprised if the nuke story was released on purpose to muddy the waters and cover the failure of this strike attempt.
Not sure the credibility of that TG page but I concur, far more realistic scenario but then again, who really knows.
What's concerning, especially for those paying attention like us in this thread, is the uptick in escalations. They are becoming much more frequent and more severe in nature. It seems like eventually this tit-for-tat will kick off a much larger and severe conflict.
Does anyone understand and can explain why the Turkish Lira is so incredibly weak and the interest rate in Turkey is over 50% ?
Here's the last ten years of it showing its drastic descent...
There's too much information to easily see why this has happened but maybe someone here has a clue.
Here's the last ten years of it showing its drastic descent...
There's too much information to easily see why this has happened but maybe someone here has a clue.
It has the 18th largest GDP in the world
..but how does that happen with the currency so weak..
..but how does that happen with the currency so weak..
Having a weak currency does have its advantages, a lot of sectors like manufacturing, tourism, agriculture would benefit. Downside is inflation, on everything they import, and it could be death spiral for countries like Argentina that have a lot of US$ or Euro denominated foreign debt. Turkey has a fair amount of debt, represents 50% of its GDP.
Contrast with Greece for example, which is stuck in the Eruozone, and can't devalue its currency, they have suffered greatly from that and would have been better off with their own currency.
Turkey has a good economic future, it will benefit from Russia being sanctioned as they are becoming an intermediary for them, and could import commodities like oil and metals from there.
Contrast with Greece for example, which is stuck in the Eruozone, and can't devalue its currency, they have suffered greatly from that and would have been better off with their own currency.
Turkey has a good economic future, it will benefit from Russia being sanctioned as they are becoming an intermediary for them, and could import commodities like oil and metals from there.