The Indo-Pacific Geopolitics Thread

[LaAguilaNegra]

The tussle for the Chagos Islands continues. Keir Starmer, the nominally US aligned simpleton who engages in humiliation trips to Beijing, was on track to formally sign away the Chagos Islands to Mauritius in an act of self-hating anti-colonialism. Deal is ready and only needs parliamentary approval. Mauritius has a claim on the Chagos Islands. Mauritius is 2000km away bytheway, none of this makes sense in whatever way considered.

In comes Trump last week. Mis-named the archipelago, and called Mauritius' territorial claims fake. Also made it known that the US base at Diego Garcia, one of the most important vectors for US power projection in the Indian Ocean, would not be threatened and in case it would the US would reserve the right to unilaterally act to protect its interests. Latest development: Starmer is allegedly considering rugpulling the entire deal after DJT's call.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Indian MIC giant and defence contractor Reliance Defence has started partnering with major European and American companies. In June a partnership with Rheinmetall was signed. The deal with Rheinmetall involves Indian production and export for the European market. It is scheduled that Reliance Defence will annually produce 200 000 155mm shells, 10000 tons of explosives and 2000 tons of propellants.



Two weeks ago another contract was signed with US based Coastal Mechanics.
This deal encompasses a $2.3 billion contract for the maintenance and servicing of the Indian Air Force (IAF). This contract is considered a major setback for Russia in India, because it includes the maintenance of 100 Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets currently operated by the Indian Air Force.



On the matter of India's next fifth generation fighter jet acquisition, which is the big one, the choice is between the Su57 and F35. India and Russia/SU have been historically on good terms and have a long history of partnerships in defence. The Indians seem to be leaning towards the Su57. The Kremlin is pitching joint production potential and full access to the source code, aka a complete technology transfer. These are two benefits the US doesn't offer.

Both the Indian establishment and Indian public are unhappy with Trump's handling of the May 2025 Indian-Pakistan War, in which they felt Trump was favoring the Pakistani unlike Russia which behind closed doors was backing New Delhi. This too is pushing India towards the Su57

The Indian Defence Acquisition Council has cleared the way for the India- France Rafale megadeal. India will acquire 114 Rafales for the sum of 40 billion USD, one of the biggest military deals ever. The 40 billion USD translates to 1.33 percent of France's GDP, the Rafale jets will in part be produced in India. These jets are for the Indian Air Force.

A second/third Rafale deal is in the cards as well, this time for the Indian Navy. India has allegedly requested France for an additional 31 Rafale-Marine jets which will be assigned to the Navy. In April 2025 India already placed an order for 25 Rafale-M jets with France. This April 2025 deal will be completed in 2028-2030 and had a 7.5 billion USD cost.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Ports in Australia under pressure by Washington

Australia is of vital importance to China hence the current angry muffled noises coming from Beijing. On October 20, 2025, the US- Australia mineral deal was inked and this deal is centered around redirecting Australia's mineral wealth away from Beijing and to DC. Chinese top dogs immediately nearly choked on their spicy dumplings reading the news, big problem. As for the Australians, they were always going to get tied up in the crossfire as it's geostrategic and resource based relevance is too big for either Beijing or DC to relegate the country to mere leverage.

Not only is DC pressuring Canberra to diminish Chinese influence, it's also setting up Australia as a major chain in its regional defensive strategies. Some time ago a GMLRS missile factory for HIMARS opened in Australia (Port Wakefield), second one in the world. Could very well be that Australia is designed to service the Indo-Pacific whilst US supplies for Europe and it's own Hemisphere. This renewed US imposed scrutiny was also visible during the recent CCP visit to Canberra, intense safety protocols although on the surface it was all smiles and handshakes.

Changs like to brag about their position in the global rare earth foodchain, aka presumably right on top of the valve deciding US accessibility to a variety of critical minerals due to Chinese refining capacities, yet few people know that the Chinese themselves have a few bottlenecks in their own supply chain as well.

Several of these bottlenecks involve Australia. To get a relatively good understanding of the dealings within the Zhongnanshan one just needs to follow these cheapo wumao (dis)-information channels (all of them clearly linked to the CCP's United Front Works Department) all over the English languaged internet. You don't even have to look for them, they are forcibly getting slammed onto your newsfeed right here at CiK. In a Kafka-esque way these propaganda channels reveal China's standings and potential future policy, yet intentionally ridiculed. Shocker: these wumao channels are very concerned about Australia and fantasize about taking over Australia (skipping SEA) and that way securing these critical supply lines first hand. Australia is that important.

Many of China's critical infrastructure and supply chains are dependent on Australian raw resources, which is why the Chinese are and have been so focused on improving their position within the country for the past 30 years. Zirconium, as an example, is a rare earth which Chinese SOEs mine in Australia and which is vital for its hypersonic missile program. Overall in the 2005-2025 timeframe China invested close to 110 billion USD in Australia, which is nearly triple the amount of its investments in Russia for instance (35 billion USD) over the same period. The US tightening the leash on Australia is a security threat to China.

United States-Australia Framework For Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths

October 20, 2025 Whereas, rare earths and critical minerals are essential for the production of advanced technologies; Whereas, the United States of

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

The US has pledged an additional 395 million USD to the Philippines and also stated it will increase its missile and UAV capabilities in the Philippines. Thereby sending a clear message that the US is honoring the 1951 Mutual Defense Agreement Treaty and will not budge to nor look away from Beijing's increasingly hostile and aggressive behavior. The Philippines is a major player in DC's Indo-Pacific strategy and together with Japan they form the final part of the supply chain towards Taiwan, and geographically box China in beyond that. This decision is in line with the 2023 expansion of the EDCA to 9 US bases in The Philippines, talks are ongoing on additional cases even further op North (Batanes Province). This US decision comes amidst a Chinese-Filipino diplomatic spat.

 

[expectation]

Despite Obama's Pivot to Asia announcement in Dec 2011, nothing of real substance has changed since then.

Quite literally nothing of substance happened in this "pivot":
- No troop or equipment increase materialized. A 2023 Johns Hopkins study concluded that the so-called pivot "did not [...] significantly increase US military force in Asia," and that "the military's force posture, shipbuilding, equipment procurement, and doctrine showed little change"

https://jscholarship.library.jhu.edu/items/d5f249bc-cbff-4d98-ac56-8eb956cab9f9

- The TPP - supposed to be the economic pillar of the pivot - never even got ratified. It's extremely ironical: Obama argued that "if we don't pass this agreement - if America doesn't write those rules - then countries like China will" . They didn't pass it and China signed the RCEP (now the largest trade bloc in history, covering 30% of global GDP), became ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years running, and is now the top trade partner of nearly every Asian country.

Trans-Pacific Partnership - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

- U.S. diplomatic engagement in the region didn't increase. In their book "Lost Decade", Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine "show the nearly flat line number of diplomatic visits to the region contra the marked increase in high-level visits to Europe"

The Failed Pivot to Asia – Ralph L. DeFalco III

The Pivot to Asia was more of an idea and a slogan than a thoughtful and deliberate strategy.

lawliberty.org

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Peruvian President Jose Jeri has been impeached and removed from office after shady dealings and meetings with CCP linked businessmen came to light. This comes a few days after DC warnings against Chinese control over the Pacific Peruvian port of Chancay, and how this poses a security risk. Peruvian authorities have basically ceded authority over the Port to CCP linked SOEs, investment funds and bought for port authorities. Here too Washington's hand is clearly visible as it curbs Chinese influence.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

The tussle for the Chagos Islands continues. Keir Starmer, the nominally US aligned simpleton who engages in humiliation trips to Beijing, was on track to formally sign away the Chagos Islands to Mauritius in an act of self-hating anti-colonialism. Deal is ready and only needs parliamentary approval. Mauritius has a claim on the Chagos Islands. Mauritius is 2000km away bytheway, none of this makes sense in whatever way considered.

In comes Trump last week. Mis-named the archipelago, and called Mauritius' territorial claims fake. Also made it known that the US base at Diego Garcia, one of the most important vectors for US power projection in the Indian Ocean, would not be threatened and in case it would the US would reserve the right to unilaterally act to protect its interests. Latest development: Starmer is allegedly considering rugpulling the entire deal after DJT's call.



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The Chagos Islands deal is still a tussle, rafication pending. US pressure is increasing, Trump yet again scolded Starmer and his retarded deal. This deal would mean the UK handing over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius on relatively wobbly claims, for London to then lease back Diego Garcia for 100+ million USD a year whilst the Chinese immediately close in.

The US torpedoing the deal would be bad news for the Changs who are all over Mauritius (the island country 2000 kms away with its debatable territorial claim) and had quietly hoped that this deal would undercut or at least jeopardize US dominance in the Indian Ocean through compromising US power projection from its main base in Diego Garcia. Chinese spyships have been sighted near Diego Garcia many times already, and the Trump Administration fears that this arbitrary handover to Mauritius would strengthen the Chinese position as the Mauritians would simply open the doors for the Chinese immediately.

Earlier this week Keir Starmer had the Royal Navy intercept and deport pro British Chagossians who had sailed to the Chagos Islands by dinghy. Starmer is threatening them with a 3 year prison terms if they do so again. These Chagossians are heavily anti-Mauritius anti-deal so naturally Starmer had them deported as they, British citizens, set foot on British territory. The question that hasn't been satisfactory answered yet is 'why is Starmer doing his?'.

 

[LaAguilaNegra]

Escalatory language eventually was upgraded to bullets and missiles, for the past couple of days the Pakistani military and Taliban have been shooting at each other but within a certain calculated format, today the Pakistani launched a extensive bombing campaign which could very well be coupled with a limited ground offensive to create a bufferzone.

The escalation happened as Afghan FM Muttaqi was in India to upgrade ties and mend a budding relationship, Pakistani junta did not like the idea of having to fight a two front war in the near future at all and turned up the heat. Pakistani Taliban has been killing Pakistani soldiers by the dozens lately, they move freely on Afghan territory so a casus belli is always around

There will be immediate ceasefire attempts but it seems the Pakistani GHQ is serious about dealing the Taliban a blow before they agree to any ceasefire negotiations.

Next round of fighting between Pakistan and Afghanistan is in, this time it escalated fast beyond the usual border clashes. Pakistan's military leadership seems agitated and decisive in its actions, the Pakistani Taliban is still running around freely in Afghanistan and the Afghan Talibs are cosying up with India. Hence Pakistan launched operation Ghazab Lil Haq

Absolutely monumental miscalculation by the Pakistani junta bytheway, they were the lifeline of the Afghan Talibs for 20 years and the mood was festive once the US withdrawal was concluded and Ahknazhada the new leader. 5 years later and relations are terrible with talk about a (limited) war, Talibs just aren't going to shoot their Pashto kin on the orders of Islamabad. Pakistan assessment on that one was a bit off.