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Situation in the Red Sea

LaAguilaNegra

Other Christian
Heritage
Iran is vulnerable to strikes on its oil and gas infrastructure. A few dozen cruise missile attacks would cripple their economy.
The whole point of building up deterrence in the Red Sea and making Ansarallah/Iran back down is to keep oil prices reasonably low and global shipping lanes open.

Your scenario would mean 300 USD per barrel and both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb closed off.
 
Iran is vulnerable to strikes on its oil and gas infrastructure. A few dozen cruise missile attacks would cripple their economy.
And we are vulnerable to strikes on oil&gas tankers leaving the Gulf. Iran would retaliate and either shut down the Hormuz strait completely or they would hunt down US bound tankers. Which in turn would force us to retaliate even further and the situation would spiral out of control pretty fast.
And with the risk of oil prices going through the roof, just for the upcoming election season, it's highly unlikely to happen.
 
Ansarallah is trying to force the US' hand and get them to stop Israel.
I can understand their play. They hope that US threatened with higher costs of living, with the election season coming in, will pressure Netanyahu to stand down. But I don't believe that Netanyahu will listen to the Biden's administration, he's betting on the unwavering ziocon support.
 
Hopefully China is saying "okay USA and Israel, you have pushed so much degeneracy on your own people that your own militaries cannot keep our goods safe and we don't want that filth in our country, so we will go another direction".

This is the Twitter news. There is nothing from official US sources though.
Screenshot_20231211_202914.jpg
 
This is the Twitter news. There is nothing from official US sources though.
Screenshot_20231211_202914.jpg

It's a safe bet, since the Task Force 153 already exists and its mission is maritime security in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandeb and Gulf of Aden.
So the command will only have to expand the scale of their operations. No need to create new structures.
 
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The current news from Yemen is mostly rumours. There have apparantly been two attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. According to the reports a commercial ship flying under the Norwegian flag (Strinda) is on fire. A second ship has reportedly been fired at too.


Ansarallah's blockade is working.





EDIT.

US CENTCOM with confirmation.

 
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The current news from Yemen is mostly rumours. There have apparantly been two attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. According to the reports a commercial ship flying under the Norwegian flag (Strinda) is on fire. A second ship has reportedly been fired at too.


The French frigate "Languedoc" intercepted a drone (I'm guessing a reconnaissance UAV sent to assess the damage) in the vicinity of the "Strinda" tanker.

On the evening of Monday, December 11, the oil tanker Strinda (Norwegian flag) was the victim of a complex air attack from Yemen causing a fire on board.
The FREMM Languedoc which was patrolling the area intercepted and destroyed a drone directly threatening the Strinda. The FREMM then placed itself in protection of the affected vessel, preventing the attempt to hijack the ship.
The fire on board the Strinda was brought under control. No injuries were reported. The USS Mason then escorted the Strinda to the Gulf of Aden out of the threat zone. FREMM Languedoc has resumed its patrol towards the North.
FREMM Languedoc has been involved in the Gulf of Aden and the southern Red Sea since December 8 in order to contribute to maritime security and the freedom of navigation of ships (around 20,000 commercial ships pass through this area each year ).
 
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Another incident in the Red Sea.



Irish owned tanker "Ardmore Encounter", carrying jet fuel from India to northern Europe, was first ordered to change course, then approached by speedboats. The tanker did not comply, and its security team exchanged fire with the assailants. USS Mason operating in the vicinity responded to the distress calls and, after shooting down a drone, escorted the "Ardmore Encounter" to safety.


 
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Damn, these guys are taking it to Israel/USA. The great satan is falling due to a life of sin. Good men don't want to enlist to fight for this disgusting country. And the enemy knows this well.





I'm gonna sperg out a little, cause the details are wrong.
Not a single ship attacked by Houthis was en route to, or from, Israel, that's because most shipping companies operating through the Red Sea flat out refuse to do any business with Israel, those who still do already rerouted their ships to go around Africa (increasing costs and causing delays). The port of Eilat is losing money, not because they have to pay premiums, but because it has to run idle with no carriers willing to come.
However this does not mean that Houthis are simply lashing out, some of those ships and/or shipping companies can be linked in one way or the other with Israel - for example, the Norwegian tanker "Strinda", which was hit by a missile a few days ago was en route to Italy, but later, after finishing that job, it was scheduled to pick up cargo in Ashdod in January. I'll say that roughly half of all attacked ships had some ties with Israel.
As for the details on the ships attacked over the past 24-36 hours, we've got:
- A Bulgarian bulk carrier "Ruen" sailing from Singapore to Turkey was hijacked in the Arabian Sea.
- A German container carrier "Al Jasrah" sailing from the Mediterranean (last port in Greece) to Singapore was hit by either a missile or a drone in the Red Sea.
- A Swiis-Italian container carrier "Alanya" sailing from Oman to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia reported missile fire in the Red Sea, but was not hit.
- And the most interesting case: a Danish container carrier "Maersk Gibraltar" sailing from Oman to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia came under fire in the Red Sea. The Maersk shipping company and CENTCOM reported that it was missed by a missile, however Houthis reported a successful drone strike against it.
All details on the ships from tradewinds news.


It's much more than just the insurance, just now shipping giants Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, announced that they will no longer sail through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, instead they will go around Africa, which means increased delay times (10 days extra one way) and increased costs of shipping (or lower tonnage on the same fuel). This will affect all of us pretty soon, and to make things even worse: Panama is imposing limits on vessels passing through the Canal due to severe drought.
It's obvious that Iran gave the Houthis a green light to mess with our economies. The scale and sophistication of Houthi attacks is increasing with every day, they're running circles around us, while the US is unable to find its ass with both hands - only 2 days ago we were able to convince Brits to send the HMS "Diamond" destroyer to the Red Sea. And I think that Iran's plans go beyond inflating costs of living in the west, I'm starting to think they want to draw us into another never ending war in the Middle East.
 
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Even if a new Dem candidate called for ceasefire I wouldn't trust a word out of his mouth. You'd have to be insane to trust any Democrat at the national level. They lie so much every time they open their mouths a new lie comes out.
Well, like Putin said, they don't care who wins the US elections, because the same people are in power, so he has no reason to interfere our elections.

At this time, I don't think Iran and their proxies are going to back down unless they get really hit hard. And I don't think the US military in this day an age can deliver that hit. Sure, we can fly over and bomb them, we have been doing this for 20 years in some areas, and yet they keep coming back and attacking us. Other than getting down on the ground and fighting them, one by one, which no one in the west wants to do, I don't see a way of stopping them.

Israel might be able to surrender land, and other provisions to get out of this mess, but outside of that I think they are in some serious trouble. And we are about to feel more pain here in the USA. What man wants to fight for a country when he can't afford to have children and have a stake in that country?

 
These attacks on shipping have been a successful ploy to force the US Navy carrier group to leave the Persian Gulf. A propaganda and strategic win for Iran. Of course, the US nuclear sub will remain, but no one can see that, so still a win.

The withdrawal of the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier from the Persian Gulf.

Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Navy: The Eisenhower naval group was in the Persian Gulf for less than 20 days and has now left the region. The presence of this carrier has only propaganda value and holds no operational significance for them, as the intelligent naval forces of the Revolutionary Guards have been monitoring the movements of this naval group on the surface, above the surface, and underwater on a daily and moment-to-moment basis. Video of the process of the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier leaving the Persian Gulf under the observation of high-speed boats and missile-launching vessels of the Revolutionary Guards with the coverage of coastal missiles to the sea and combat drones identifying from the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.
 
These attacks on shipping have been a successful ploy to force the US Navy carrier group to leave the Persian Gulf. A propaganda and strategic win for Iran. Of course, the US nuclear sub will remain, but no one can see that, so still a win.



It depends where will it sail next.
The USS Eisenhower carrier strike group initially was supposed to replace the USS Ford group in the Mediterranean, but instead was send to the Persian Gulf to deter Iran from any actions - didn't quite work out. So it's a question where will it sail now: If they sail to the Suez Canal, either to go back home, or to finally relieve the USS Ford (which is at sea since spring) then it has nothing to with the escalation in the Red Sea. However, if the USS Eisenhower is just changing its position, moving towards the Gulf of Aden to carry out strikes against the Houthis, then yes it will be clear victory for Iran.
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It depends where will it sail next.
The USS Eisenhower carrier strike group initially was supposed to replace the USS Ford group in the Mediterranean, but instead was send to the Persian Gulf to deter Iran from any actions - didn't quite work out. So it's a question where will it sail now: If they sail to the Suez Canal, either to go back home, or to finally relieve the USS Ford (which is at sea since spring) then it has nothing to with the escalation in the Red Sea. However, if the USS Eisenhower is just changing its position, moving towards the Gulf of Aden to carry out strikes against the Houthis, then yes it will be clear victory for Iran.
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I expect to see more escorts in the area per the video I posted in the supply chain thread I posted.

Companies like Maersk are giving the US an ultimatum regarding protection of ALL ships in the region.
 
Since yesterday, December 16, four of the largest container shipping companies: MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, responsible together for roughly 50% of world's container shipping capacity, will no longer sail through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Several vessels already changed their course, either making a U turn back to port or heading to circumvent Africa, while some stopped at a distance from the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Now, those ships that are making a pause are US registered vessels, they sail under the American flag, they are US tax payers and as such they are entitled to US Navy protection. A pause in the operation of the US flagged vessesls means they're either waiting for an escort, or - most likely - they were ordered by their owners to stop for as long as necessary to force the US to provide protection for all of their vessels, regardless of where those other ships are registered. And those shipping giants have leverage: some of their US flagged vessels are part of the Maritime Security Program (MSP) fleet - civilian vessels kept on retainer by the DoD and bound by contract to support the US, for example the Maersk "Kensington" en route to Djibouti, with both civilian and military cargo on board, stopped in the middle of the Red Sea.
The situation is serious, 3 Arleigh Burke destroyers entered the Mediterranean last week, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd "Raytheon" Austin is expected to announce this week launch of a new operation: "Operation Prosperity Guardian". Most likely, it will be a "firewall" of warships positioned between the coast of Yemen and the commercial shipping lane.

Great video roundup of the whole situation.
 
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I expect to see more escorts in the area per the video I posted in the supply chain thread I posted.
I think those 3 Arleigh Burke destroyers (USS Laboon, USS Delbert D. Black, USS The Sullivans) will make the backbone of this security force, with additional vessels provided by France, UK, etc.
And while parts of the Eisenhower strike group will definitely take part in those operations, I think it's leaving the Persian Gulf to replace, with a delay, the USS Ford in the Mediterranean, as it was its original mission.

Companies like Maersk are giving the US an ultimatum regarding protection of ALL ships in the region.
They've got us by the short hair - we're too dependant on their services not only in commerce, but also in our logistic capabilities.
 
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