Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

[JayR]

This is from October 2023:

Blade Runner said:
I foresee $1 million dollar BTC by the end of the decade....

----------

You're calling him wrong over 5 years in advance? The rest of your post is equally ridiculous.

-----------

"we'll be lucky to see 200K Bitcoin within the next 3 years (2029)"

A 33% annual return? Yes, I would consider myself lucky (or just smart).

 

[Blade Runner]

but you've claimed a one million US dollar BTC evaluation within the next 4 years at least one hundred times so one good turn deserves another.

No, I've claimed, generally speaking 500k in the next "cycle" (hard to define now but meaning by 2028-29) and $1M in the early 2030s. Do I think with debasement that $1M is possible by 2029? Yes.

Ain't gonna happen, we'll be lucky to see 200K Bitcoin within the next 3 years (2029)

As @JayR said, we already have pretty standard CAGR performance for BTC, so don't get all excited that it's just dipping ~20% right now from the big, quick move up in early October, something that's common even in bull markets.

We have the death cross finally today, which is bullish. The next 2 months+ should be fun. I've said to be cautious about the market, and thus BTC too next year, so I'll state the same and we'll see what decisions I make in Q1 or Q2 of next year.

By the way, here is BTC CAGR for 4 year periods in a cool chart where you can check at any point what it has been. Even now it's 10%, but that won't last. I suggest buying.

 

[eradicator]

I sold all of my bitcoin and most of my eth in early 2024 to buy alt coins. Huge mistake.

The only coin that I have that is holding up is bittensor Tao, and maybe sui(I’m about even on sui, haven’t gain or lost anything from where I bought). The rest of the coins I bought are all down 90% or more. Most aren’t going to survive.

Just buy Bitcoin and stocks on the s & p 500, hold them long term. So long as you are going to be holding at least a few years you will come out ahead. Try to buy dips obviously .

I’d avoid the crypto space if you were thinking of buying now(bitcoin, eth, and a few others like xrp and xlm, hopefully Tao should be good long term, ). I lost big time on “safety pick” coins like Kas, Tet, aitech, alph, mintlayer, and others. There’s nothing safe about crypto.

I guess Kas as the project is still going, it could come back but not looking good right now.

Look at it this way, Bitcoin really is a hedge against inflation.

I still talk to cynllo, the member that helped start Christ is king website, he sold all his coins yesterday, he held onto Tao and one or two others, he had invested a lot more than I did, unfortunately he, like everyone else lost a lot as well. There is still some hope for Tao I guess but I mean, much better to be a Bitcoin maxi and just buy and hold. Or buy the ETFs if you’re unsure.

TLDR avoid alt coins, there’s too many coins and too much trash. Buy bitcoin and hold long term and you’re fine. Or buy stocks.

 

[chance vought]

I sold all of my bitcoin and most of my eth in early 2024 to buy alt coins. Huge mistake.

The only coin that I have that is holding up is bittensor Tao, and maybe sui(I’m about even on sui, haven’t gain or lost anything from where I bought). The rest of the coins I bought are all down 90% or more. Most aren’t going to survive.

Just buy Bitcoin and stocks on the s & p 500, hold them long term. So long as you are going to be holding at least a few years you will come out ahead. Try to buy dips obviously .

I’d avoid the crypto space if you were thinking of buying now(bitcoin, eth, and a few others like xrp and xlm, hopefully Tao should be good long term, ). I lost big time on “safety pick” coins like Kas, Tet, aitech, alph, mintlayer, and others. There’s nothing safe about crypto.

I guess Kas as the project is still going, it could come back but not looking good right now.

Look at it this way, Bitcoin really is a hedge against inflation.

I still talk to cynllo, the member that helped start Christ is king website, he sold all his coins yesterday, he held onto Tao and one or two others, he had invested a lot more than I did, unfortunately he, like everyone else lost a lot as well. There is still some hope for Tao I guess but I mean, much better to be a Bitcoin maxi and just buy and hold. Or buy the ETFs if you’re unsure.

TLDR avoid alt coins, there’s too many coins and too much trash. Buy bitcoin and hold long term and you’re fine. Or buy stocks.

Lightning was the nail in the coffin for alts. Once Lightning adoption hit critical mass after 2020. There is no legitimate argument for a use case for anything but bitcoin.

 

[scorpion]

Lightning was the nail in the coffin for alts. Once Lightning adoption hit critical mass after 2020. There is no legitimate argument for a use case for anything but bitcoin.

With the widespread availability of USD-denominated stablecoins (not to mention the existence of Monero as an actual privacy coin) there is no legitimate argument for the use of Bitcoin as a currency. At best, it can theoretically serve as a store of value against fiat debasement. But given that this use case implies a much lower rate of growth/compounding as Bitcoin matures (one more in line with traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate), there is no reason to give credence to the sort of wild price predictions we hear from Bitcoin maxis. And without the realistic anticipation of outsized returns, it's doubtful that most HODLers will remain interested in Bitcoin for long.

With zero practical application as an actual currency, Bitcoin becomes a sort of fungible collectible token. It will retain some value so long as it retains its popularity. But given that its popularity is almost entirely based on the belief that HODLers will achieve exceptional future returns, should those returns fail to materialize, its popularity will inevitably decline. And once that happens, look out, because there is nothing to arrest the associated decline in price. No earnings, no fundamentals, no favorable P/E ratio, no dividends or coupon payments. Once the bottom falls out, it's game over.

 

[chance vought]

With the widespread availability of USD-denominated stablecoins (not to mention the existence of Monero as an actual privacy coin) there is no legitimate argument for the use of Bitcoin as a currency. At best, it can theoretically serve as a store of value against fiat debasement. But given that this use case implies a much lower rate of growth/compounding as Bitcoin matures (one more in line with traditional investments like gold, stocks, and real estate), there is no reason to give credence to the sort of wild price predictions we hear from Bitcoin maxis. And without the realistic anticipation of outsized returns, it's doubtful that most HODLers will remain interested in Bitcoin for long.

With zero practical application as an actual currency, Bitcoin becomes a sort of fungible collectible token. It will retain some value so long as it retains its popularity. But given that its popularity is almost entirely based on the belief that HODLers will achieve exceptional future returns, should those returns fail to materialize, its popularity will inevitably decline. And once that happens, look out, because there is nothing to arrest the associated decline in price. No earnings, no fundamentals, no favorable P/E ratio, no dividends or coupon payments. Once the bottom falls out, it's game over.

I can have all the fiat and stablecoins I need, using bitcoin.
Own bitcoin, rent dollars.
(Ledn, Strike, Unchained, Xapo Bank, Firefish, Arch)

Yes, you can’t eat, wear, or live in a bitcoin - but it can be transmuted to all of those things (without having to sell it)

 

[Judoka]

Yes, you can’t eat, wear, or live in a bitcoin - but it can be transmuted to all of those things (without having to sell it)

The margin clerk will sell it for you.

 

[eradicator]

without the realistic anticipation of outsized returns, it's doubtful that most HODLers will remain interested in Bitcoin for long.

With zero practical application as an actual currency, Bitcoin becomes a sort of fungible collectible token.

I don’t know how to say this, but if you talk to any bitcoin Maxi(someone who only buys bitcoin, and no other crypto currency), I would say about 100% of them are extremely bullish on bitcoin long-term, hardly any of them want to sell ever. All of them are convinced that it will simply go up in value forever.. as there is a finite supply of bitcoin, I’m looking at all of the charts, in the long run the price only goes up.

Yes, there are peaks and dips over the course of years, the value goes up overtime without fail. There’s a fine amount of it, you can’t just print up more bitcoin the way countries like to print up dollars or other fiat currency.