Bitcoin and Crypto Thread

I strongly suspect that at this point there are state-sponsored groups working in concert to manipulate the market, simply because it has proven an easy way to make money off the books. In this regard it functions similarly to state-run lotteries, which are essentially just taxes on poor, desperate and/or stupid people. Bitcoin operates as a tax on greedy and credulous people.
Let's say I agree. Why can't this happen concurrently? Much of the manipulation is to get leveraged positions out and delivered to others, which is why we say do not try to leverage it, just HODL.
to manipulate the Bitcoin price lower to give them more time to accumulate the same way that big players used the derivatives market to manipulate gold prices
This would be my explanation as well. Time to accumulate as we change to a new monetary system/reality.

Scorpion, do you not think we are coming upon a change, in some fashion within the next ~5 years that will be somewhat drastic?
 
How is price at all relevant? 1 BTC = 1 BTC

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Wouldn't be the first time a central bank held worthless assets: https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/the-federal-reserves-crisis-response/
Fine, but you are still dodging. If we say it is money, all the biggest players increasingly own it, central banks own it, companies have it on balance sheet, the hash rate goes up, the network expands, etc. at that point you'd really just keep saying "No big deal?"
 
Let's say I agree. Why can't this happen concurrently? Much of the manipulation is to get leveraged positions out and delivered to others, which is why we say do not try to leverage it, just HODL.
Sure, it seems to have worked out well so far. But indefinitely? I don't think it's smart to bet on a rigged game. It's like the old saying about poker: if you don't recognize the sucker sitting at the table, that's because it's you.
Scorpion, do you not think we are coming upon a change, in some fashion within the next ~5 years that will be somewhat drastic?
Very possible (although doom has been forecasted as being just around the corner for decades now, especially post-2008 financial crisis). And if there is some massive change, I don't see any reason to believe that Bitcoin would function as a safe haven asset to weather it. Indeed, it has historically always behaved in the exact opposite fashion.
Fine, but you are still dodging. If we say it is money, all the biggest players increasingly own it, central banks own it, companies have it on balance sheet, the hash rate goes up, the network expands, etc. at that point you'd really just keep saying "No big deal?"
"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance." - Chuck Prince (former Citigroup CEO) in 2007, defending his bank's loose lending policies that nearly collapsed the firm in 2008.

"It's only when the tide goes out that you discover who's been swimming naked." - Warren Buffett

Here's something important to keep in mind: Wall Street bankers and their ilk are not fabulously wealthy because they're smart and sophisticated; they're fabulously wealthy because they're unscrupulous, aggressive and totally shameless about taking risks with other people's money.
 
Here's something important to keep in mind: Wall Street bankers and their ilk are not fabulously wealthy because they're smart and sophisticated; they're fabulously wealthy because they're unscrupulous, aggressive and totally shameless about taking risks with other people's money.
You fundamentally misunderstand the fiat system, which is the real scam and ponzi.

That explains all of your inability to make sensible points on the topic, but transfer them to BTC.

Honestly, if you are working and don't have other assets (the best have been stocks over the long term and now BTC) the system literally made you a loser, by design. Again, that's the fiat system.

You can't fake BTC. Or print it.

I don't see one reason you've given to actually believe it won't continue to perform. It's all FUD and paranoia. They'll do this, they'll do that. That's what the fiat system has already done - stolen everyone's work!
 
How is price at all relevant? 1 BTC = 1 BTC
That is the whole point of Bitcoin that it doesn't change.

Hence the reason why silicon valley venture capitalist Tim Draper says that within 10 years the price of Bitcoin will be infinite because there will no longer be a US dollar according to him. It would be like if you go to Pizza Hut and order pizzas and every year they shrink the size of the pizza so 1 pizza one year from now is not the same as a pizza today. Hence 1 pizza (today) is not equal to one pizza (in the future). But one Bitcoin today will be equal to 1 bitcoin in the future. In this analogy the pizza is fiat.

The other point that has been made by people like Larry Lepard is that Bitcoin is great for humanity and the planet because in the future if Bitcoin replaces currency it will be an appreciating currency for as long as civilization advances and economies keep growing.

Once the world is on a Bitcoin standard if the world produces 2% more goods and services every year your Bitcoin gains 2% more purchasing power because the amount of Bitcoin is unchanged but there is more stuff. This means that people will consume less because they will be less inclined to waste their money on frivolous junk because their savings are gaining value instead of losing value. This means needless consumption (consumerism) will be reduced and savings and investment will increase.
 
You fundamentally misunderstand the fiat system, which is the real scam and ponzi.

That explains all of your inability to make sensible points on the topic, but transfer them to BTC.

Honestly, if you are working and don't have other assets (the best have been stocks over the long term and now BTC) the system literally made you a loser, by design. Again, that's the fiat system
I understand the fiat system perfectly well. And you seem to understand how it operates, but totally misunderstand its purpose. Fiat/credit money is not supposed to hold steady value over time. It is not an asset. A gradually inflating currency is operating as intended, with the idea being that the money supply can easily expand and contract to meet the needs of the economy. Fiat currency is not wealth. BTC is not wealth. Gold is not wealth. Wealth is the total sum of goods and services that can be produced by a given economy. The purpose of fiat/credit money is to act as the lifeblood of the economy, readily facilitating investment and trade. The fact that you can't stick $1000 in cash under your mattress for twenty years and retain your purchasing power isn't some "fiat scam", it's literally by design. Money is supposed to be spent or invested (deployed into the economy), not hoarded (removed from the economy).
Hence the reason why silicon valley venture capitalist Tim Draper says that within 10 years the price of Bitcoin will be infinite because there will no longer be a US dollar according to him.
A ludicrous contention. If there is a U.S. government, there will be a US dollar of some sort. National governments are not going to renounce the power of controlling their own national currencies in favor of Bitcoin.
The other point that has been made by people like Larry Lepard is that Bitcoin is great for humanity and the planet because in the future if Bitcoin replaces currency it will be an appreciating currency for as long as civilization advances and economies keep growing.

Once the world is on a Bitcoin standard if the world produces 2% more goods and services every year your Bitcoin gains 2% more purchasing power because the amount of Bitcoin is unchanged but there is more stuff. This means that people will consume less because they will be less inclined to waste their money on frivolous junk because their savings are gaining value instead of losing value. This means needless consumption (consumerism) will be reduced and savings and investment will increase.
Who are these people you're listening to? They seem legitimately clueless.

Bitcoin cannot function successfully as a currency due to its deflationary nature. At best, you can make the argument (which most maxis have switched over to) that it will continue to remain popular as a store of value. I don't buy this argument personally (because I simply don't think BTC itself will have staying power and is more of a fad) but the logic is sound due to the 21M supply cap. However, in no scenario can Bitcoin ever operate as some sort of world reserve currency that facilitates global trade and commerce. Not only is it inherently deflationary, but the technical limitations of the network (even with L2 solutions) make the idea laughably infeasible.

Read what I said about wealth to Blade Runner above. Bitcoin is not wealth, and if you tried to operate the economy on a Bitcoin standard, you would plunge the world into poverty as people simply hoarded Bitcoin rather than engaging in productive economic investment. Why the hell would anyone bother to start a company if they could make a superior return with zero risk and effort just by hoarding Bitcoin?
 
Bitcoin cannot function successfully as a currency due to its deflationary nature.
You are showing a complete ignorance of history. From the late 1800s until the creation of the federal reserve in the USA the American economy experienced a deflationary boom on the classical gold standard and everybody standard of living increased massively. Capitalism by its nature unless perverted by fiat (or other forms of government created inflation) is intended to be deflationary which is good because people's standard of living goes up. Its only in a debt based fiat monetary system that deflation is bad because everybody goes bankrupt from debt deflation.

Why is it good for your purchasing power to go down? If it was good how come Venezuela is doing so badly?

Currency should be deflationary as this means people's purchasing power will rise.

Who says that currency cannot function if its deflationary? Sounds like you have been drinking the Keynesian koolade.
 
Why the hell would anyone bother to start a company if they could make a superior return with zero risk and effort just by hoarding Bitcoin?
Safidean Ammous already addressed this point. His explanation was that people will increasingly invest in Bitcoin until it becomes dominant and dominates its total addressable market (replacing fiat and central banks). Once this happens Bitcoin will become a mature asset and the returns will lower and then other investments will start stacking up again financially and then people will again switch back to investing in new business enterprises. In the meantime replacing central banks with sound money is far more beneficial to humanity then building more hotels or opening more bakeries etc.
 
You are showing a complete ignorance of history. From the late 1800s until the creation of the federal reserve in the USA the American economy experienced a deflationary boom on the classical gold standard and everybody standard of living increased massively.
I'm sorry, but you're clueless about the history of banking. The U.S. was using paper/credit/fiat money during this time period. Yes, the paper bills/bank notes were ostensibly backed by gold or silver and could be redeemed for it, but in reality banks were issuing paper currency far in excess of their gold reserves to meet the needs of the growing economy. This inevitably led to regular bank failures, culminating in the Panic of 1907, which was the impetus for the creation of the Federal Reserve.

The fiat/credit money system is certainly imperfect, but overall it has proven itself as the most effective method for promoting economic growth and prosperity. At no point in history was there ever an actual hard deflationary currency widely used for commerce. Even in ancient times, kings were constantly shaving down their coins, and the supply of precious metals for coinage expanded gradually through mining and martial acquisitions. The history of banking goes back thousands of years to the dawn of human civilization, and the money supply has never been strictly tied to a deflationary commodity or currency. Why? Because it simply does not work.
Who says that currency cannot function if its deflationary? Sounds like you have been drinking the Keynesian koolade.
I literally just explained this: a deflationary currency cannot expand to meet the needs of economic growth. It's that simple. A hard gold/Bitcoin standard results in people hoarding money rather than deploying it into the economy. You seem unable to grasp the fact that money itself - whether in the form of dollars, gold or Bitcoin - has no value. Money only has value insofar as it can be exchanged for actual goods and services. It is a tool that facilitates commerce and economic investment, not something that has intrinsic value in and of itself. Money must be spent or invested to be useful, and a deflationary currency incentivizes its owner to hoard it rather than deploy it productively. Over time this has a profoundly depressing effect on economic activity, which causes a reduction in real wealth.
Safidean Ammous already addressed this point.
Talk about a Kool-Aid drinker.
 
I'm sorry, but you're clueless about the history of banking. The U.S. was using paper/credit/fiat money during this time period. Yes, the paper bills/bank notes were ostensibly backed by gold or silver and could be redeemed for it, but in reality banks were issuing paper currency far in excess of their gold reserves to meet the needs of the growing economy. This inevitably led to regular bank failures, culminating in the Panic of 1907, which was the impetus for the creation of the Federal Reserve.

The fiat/credit money system is certainly imperfect, but overall it has proven itself as the most effective method for promoting economic growth and prosperity. At no point in history was there ever an actual hard deflationary currency widely used for commerce. Even in ancient times, kings were constantly shaving down their coins, and the supply of precious metals for coinage expanded gradually through mining and martial acquisitions. The history of banking goes back thousands of years to the dawn of human civilization, and the money supply has never been strictly tied to a deflationary commodity or currency. Why? Because it simply does not work.

I literally just explained this: a deflationary currency cannot expand to meet the needs of economic growth. It's that simple. A hard gold/Bitcoin standard results in people hoarding money rather than deploying it into the economy. You seem unable to grasp the fact that money itself - whether in the form of dollars, gold or Bitcoin - has no value. Money only has value insofar as it can be exchanged for actual goods and services. It is a tool that facilitates commerce and economic investment, not something that has intrinsic value in and of itself. Money must be spent or invested to be useful, and a deflationary currency incentivizes its owner to hoard it rather than deploy it productively. Over time this has a profoundly depressing effect on economic activity, which causes a reduction in real wealth.

Talk about a Kool-Aid drinker.
Firstly regular smaller failures is what stops systemic risk from building up to a 2008 style too big to fail situation. Also when governments backstop everything it promotes distorted risk taking behavior due to privatization of gains and socializing of losses i.e. crony capitalism. Yes JP Morgan got the bankers together to resolve the banking panic of 1907 but even before that previous depressions and banking panics were relatively short lived despite the lack of government interventions. This is because a capitalist economy has natural stabilizing mechanisms (i.e. price). If asset prices fall enough those who cashed up will step in to buy assets and the price will start rising again. If wages fall enough and rents fall enough then it will become profitable enough for business to expand again. If consumer prices fall enough consumers will start loading up on cheap goods, etc.

Yes in ancient times kings clipped coins but the coin clipping always coincided with a decline of the empire and an economic downturn. Coin clipping is always a desperate last measure. When empires were at peak prosperity they weren't coin clipping or diluting gold coins with copper etc. And whenever these things happened the economy always got worse. Inflation is always bad except for the few who are closest to the money printers. Notice how most financial collapses in history occur during periods of extreme money debasement? Venezeula, Zimbabwe, Weimar Republic etc. Can you point to a period where hard money policies caused a total economic collapse?

Are you completely ignorant of Austrian economics? Go read Murry Rothbard, Ludwig Von Mises, Frederich Hayek, Carl Menger etc and stop getting your ideas from discredited retards like John Maynard Keynes.

Obviously money itself is only valuable as a medium of exchange in most cases and I don't claim otherwise where did I make that assertion? Austrian economists hundreds of years ago debunked the myth that deflationary money is bad. That is idiotic Keynesian dogma. Believing inflationary currency is good is retard level stuff.

The point is that humans are not robots they have needs and wants so money hoarding due to a deflationary currency only goes so far its not an endless death spiral process. If you need food you are going to buy food not hoard your money because its value will go up next year. If you don't have a TV and you want to watch TV you will forego the gains from hoarding your money buy a TV. Yes frivolous consumption will go down with deflationary money but that is a good thing! We live in a wasteful society. Why do women need to by that 5th handbag or that 20th pair of shoes that they will only wear once?

And when people become wealthy enough or stuff gets cheap enough they will spend their money. Again the natural balancing mechanisms of capitalism. Many early adopters who have bought bitcoin under $1000 per coin have sold some of their stash and bought mansions, Ferraris etc despite the fact they think bitcoin will keep climbing in price because they have more than enough money and they want to buy stuff!

Also if Bitcoin becomes the global currency then it is the default risk free rate of return so people will still invest in stuff because the return will be denominated in Bitcoin! If you spend 100 Bitcoin to build a hotel and it produces 10 bitcoin per year in cashflow then you gain 10 bitcoin per year rather than hoarding your 100 Bitcoin which will will remain as only 100 Bitcoin.

The whole ethos of capitalism is to provide consumers with cheaper goods over time. As technology improves stuff gets cheaper to produce. The only reason stuff is getting more expensive is due to monetary debasement.

Also a lot of wars are funded by money printing so there would be less warfare under a hard money standard. Also there is no reason investment would go down due to deflationary currency because there are so many basic needs in the world not being met that there is still ample need for investment to the point where almost unlimited capital can be used. How many worthwhile toll roads, trains, private hospitals, internet and telecom infrastructure can still be built in third world countries? A lot! Heck even in USA there is a lot of crumbling infrastructure that needs to be rebuilt. As long as the returns are attractive enough people will invest their money. Besides a deflationary currency will stop people land prices from going to the moon because will stop hoarding houses as a store of value.
 
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If you need food you are going to buy food not hoard your money because its value will go up next year. If you don't have a TV and you want to watch TV you will forego the gains from hoarding your money buy a TV.
Again, you don't seem to understand the catastrophic impact of a deflationary currency. It doesn't matter what you want to buy, it matters what others are incentivized to produce. In your example here, there will simply not be sufficient food or TVs available in the marketplace, because there is no economic incentive to produce them in the first place. This is how deflationary currencies destroy wealth.

I don't have time to respond to your entire wall of text, but the root of your misunderstanding seems to be in the function of money itself. You're completely stuck on the idea that money itself must necessarily be valuable. You say that you never made this argument, but that is inherent to the idea of a deflationary currency - that the money gains value over time. This is simply a terrible and unworkable idea, to the extent that it has never existed in history, and indeed literally cannot exist alongside increasing economic prosperity.

Think about the economy in terms of barter: I'll trade you a pound of butter for a chicken, for example. We instead substitute money in place of exchanging the commodities themselves, which greatly increases economic efficiency and trade opportunities. But with a deflationary currency, why trade at all? If you're holding the most valuable commodity already, why would you ever give it up except by the barest necessity? And indeed, this logic prevails among the Bitcoin maxis, whose foremost maxim is to never sell your Bitcoin! If people aren't willing to part with their money, economic activity grinds to a halt.

You demean Keynes, but to be honest, it sounds like you need to invest some time in studying him, as well as modern monetary theory in general. At the very least it will enhance your understanding of how money actually functions in the fiat system.
 
This is simply a terrible and unworkable idea, to the extent that it has never existed in history,
You are completely ignorant of history but opening this pandora's box could be a 50 page thread of its own.

I am familiar with Keynes work and he is a complete and utter retard and modern monetary theory is also retarded. Are you familiar with the work of the Austrian school of economics?
 
In your example here, there will simply not be sufficient food or TVs available in the marketplace, because there is no economic incentive to produce them in the first place. This is how deflationary currencies destroy wealth.
An utterly retarded idea which has no basis in fact. Less demand means less supply to match it, it doesn't mean that stuff will stop being produced altogether. When the population of the world was half the population of today TVs were still being produced. If all the overweight people in the world decided to eat less and stop being overweight does that mean that no food would be produced and everybody would starve? Of course not price is the mechanism that balances supply and demand as markets head towards an dynamic equilibrium.

Please go and read the Austrian economists they all debunked the retardedness of mainstream economists decades ago! Its tiring to even have this conversation with you!
 
I am familiar with Keynes work and he is a complete and utter retard and modern monetary theory is also retarded. Are you familiar with the work of the Austrian school of economics?
Yes. The Austrians have some interesting ideas, but not much of a track record. Mostly just bloviating. Say what you will about Keynes and MMT, but the modern global economy functions based on their ideas. You're sitting here calling Keynes a retard through the internet because the economy has produced such an enormous amount of surplus wealth that you don't have to do backbreaking subsistence farming to feed yourself. You can say that is due merely to technological progress, but that is more bloviation and hot air. The modern economy exists and produces vast wealth, and it does so through the use of MMT and Keynesian theory. All your arguments against it are hypothetical suppositions, little more than opinions without any factual basis.
An utterly retarded idea which has no basis in fact. Less demand means less supply to match it, it doesn't mean that stuff will stop being produced altogether.
The fact that you can't make any argument besides, "That's retarded" is both humorous and indicative of your lack of understanding. You are simply regurgitating Austrian boilerplate, most of which has no relevance to the real world.
 
but not much of a track record.
Austrian economists predicted the collapse of the soviet union based on first principles decades before it happened while retarded mainstream economists kept publishing in their textbooks that the USSR would become the number 1 economy in the world and overtake the US. Martin Armstrong though not strictly an Austrian economist leans that way but with a more real world style analysis that is less academic and he produced a lot of sharp analysis.
 
The fact that you can't make any argument besides, "That's retarded" is both humorous and indicative of your lack of understanding.
I already provided real world examples. When cars where first being produced the total addressable market was much smaller than today as population was lower and cars were expensive (due to less technology than today) so only the rich could afford them yet cars were still produced and those who were wealthy enough could buy cars if they wished to.

"In 1907 there were 140,300 cars registered in the U.S. and a paltry 2,900 trucks. People and goods still travelled long distances on land by railroad, and short distances by foot or horse-drawn carriage. Almost nobody rode horses, but plenty of people rode bicycles for pleasure and for transport.

Ten years later in 1917, there had been a 33-fold increase in the number of cars registered, to almost 5 million, and a 134-fold increase in the number of commercial, agricultural and military vehicles, to almost 400,000."


So in 1907 a mere 140,300 cars was enough for an auto industry to exist so even if demand for cars drops 90% from todays level tere will still be companies producing cars.
 
Martin Armstrong though not strictly an Austrian economist leans that way but with a more real world style analysis that is less economic and he produced a lot of sharp analysis.
Martin Armstrong is a literal conman, a convicted financial criminal and scam artist who laughably claims that his analysis is produced by his self-made Socrates supercomputer (spoiler alert: it's literally just bullshit he makes up).

It's no wonder your understanding is so poor when these are the sort of "experts" you elevate and follow.

I already provided real world examples. When cars where first being produced the total addressable market was much smaller than today as population was lower and cars were expensive (due to less technology than today) so only the rich could afford them yet cars were still produced and those who were wealthy enough could buy cars if they wished to.
Yes, cars were produced because it was profitable to sell them. It was profitable to sell them because people had enough money in their pockets to buy one, and - more importantly - they were willing to part with that money in exchange for the car. With a deflationary currency, there is no incentive to produce the car in the first place because people either don't have enough money to buy one, or else they have the money and don't want to spend it. Bitcoin totally fails as a currency in this regard, as it cannot expand to meet the needs of a growing economy.
 
Martin Armstrong is a literal conman, a convicted financial criminal and scam artist who laughably claims that his analysis is produced by his self-made Socrates supercomputer (spoiler alert: it's literally just bullshit he makes up).

It's no wonder your understanding is so poor when these are the sort of "experts" you elevate and follow.


Yes, cars were produced because it was profitable to sell them. It was profitable to sell them because people had enough money in their pockets to buy one, and - more importantly - they were willing to part with that money in exchange for the car. With a deflationary currency, there is no incentive to produce the car in the first place because people either don't have enough money to buy one, or else they have the money and don't want to spend it. Bitcoin totally fails as a currency in this regard, as it cannot expand to meet the needs of a growing economy.
Yes I am aware of Martin Armstrongs past but that is a whole other rabbit hole. And yes socrates is bullshit but he is very well versed in history and has a good understanding of a wide range of topics. I don't agree with everything he says but some of his analysis is useful.

I already explained before that deflationary currency doesn't cause a death spiral because people have needs and wants so there are natural balancing mechanisms. If somebody needs a car to go to work they will buy one even if their currency is appreciating. Even many Bitcoiners who bought bitcoin early sold some of their bitcoin to buy mansions, sports cars, etc despite owning a currency (bitcoin) which is appreciating in value. Yes propensity to spend goes down (which is good because humans are overconsuming on the whole) but it does not go zero. Less spending does not mean it keeps dropping until it goes to zero. It finds an equilibrium level. And the money that is not spent will eventually get invested once returns rise to a high enough level to surpass the hurdle rate (gold, bitcoin, etc).

Savings and investment create wealth not consumption. As Peter Schiff explained even a 5 year old kid can consume.
 
I think we've both made our points as well as we can, so I'll leave it at that for now. Hopefully this conversation has been useful to someone reading.
 
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