Serbia Thread
- Thread starter budoslavic
- Start date
How do you expect Serbia to react?
Find me a man able to predict this. I would not seek reintegration of Kosovo by military force. Pushing out Albanians and making Kosovo Serbia again has to be done in a different way. I think we should pray for divine intervention, only God can undo this knot without bloodshed. If US pulled out of the Balkans along with money spigot to Albania that would certainly shift the balance in Serbia's favor.
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It's not very easy. You can't just say Serbia gets the blue, Croatia the orange, and the green remains an independent Bosnia. Because it's all over the place. But certainly large chunks can go to Serbia or Croatia with minimal problems. Some populations will just have to accept living as a minority or move. And if there is a peaceful transition, they can work out a way to facilitate their move or ensure minority rights.
As for the Kosovo situation, there's no way Serbia is getting that back without bloodshed. It's impossible to kick out over a million Albanians peacefully. The best they can hope for is to get the northern section to join Serbia.
Regarding Kosovo, I think the only Serbia could get a significant chunk of land beyond just the ethnically Serbian part, is if a promise can be made the that Kosovo can join Albania and become greater Albania. Actual military conflict would probably lead to issues and hostilities in Montenegro where the Ulcinj Albanians would start to clash with the Serbs.
As for Bosnia, yes, it's very difficult to do with every scattered all over the place. Even if you don't "ethnically cleanse" the various areas, political changes will essentially drive people out. Serbs in East Sarajevo won't want to live in fully fledged Muslim Bosnian state. I guess Bosniaks get kicked out of Mostar as it becomes Croatian?
That is an oxymoron. Maybe they should move back to their own fake country instead of infesting every neighboring region.
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South Eastern Europe and the Balkans in particular have about a dozen or so flashpoints, de facto frozen conflicts and subsequent grudges hence could easily go down south fast. It's the soft underbelly of Europe that can be ignited at any time to either speed up or obstruct a united European response in Ukraine and elsewhere.
In general this part of Europe has very little sovereignty and most of the past conflicts were in some shape of form proxy wars with the US nearly always dictating the outcome. Russian influence has gradually waned due to Vucic slowly moving away from Moscow. The (nominally) Muslim peoples of the Balkans look towards Turkey, always. The EU is too divided in its foreign policy on the Balkans to be considered a single bloc, but is nevertheless seeking to include all Balkan states in the Union. States like Germany, France and Hungary have widely different goals. The US is the one and only real powerbroker but pivoting to Asia.
In the map is not included the coming general elections in Romania, which will be massive in importance.
Central element to the US strategy in the Balkans has been empowering Albanians and lesser extent Bosniaks. The Albanians are in turn acting towards it, for at least the last 30 years or so. The Albanians got a second state in Kosovo, and were rewarded the Ohrid Agreements after attempting a Kosovo 2.0 in the ethnically Albanian part of Macedonia. No doubt they have a privileged position in Montenegro too.
I personally think Macedonia is much more volatile than Kosovo/Serbia or Montenegro. Kosovo has large contigents of KFOR and the Vucic government would be dead crazy to open up that can of worms. In Macedonia however there is no international peacekeeping force and the Albanians are trying to dominate Macedonian politics through intimidatioj and demographics. Around 30 percent of Macedonia is ethnically Albanian.
It doesn't help that their Christian neighbors don't see it as a legitimate entity, or remain quiet on the subject so as to not upset Greece.
Unfortunately I don't really have the means to keep up with the balkans but Servia seemed pretty stable and neutral for quite a while has this now changed? I know they're pro Russia but if anyone could give me some more info / sources etc that would be much appreciated.
Vucic is not pro Russia nor is he a Serbian nationalist and for those reasons a Republika Sprska- Serbia unification is unlikely even though the new RS Constitution explicitly mentions this.
In fact Vucic is lowkey pro EU, has been selling weapons to Ukraine for nearly a billion USD, has cancelled Russian weapon deals and instead opted for Chinese and French gear (recent Rafale deal), and has subtly ended Russian dominance in the Serbian energy sector by relinquishing Gazprom ownership of Serbia's main refiner NIS, all the while selling Serbia's raw resources to the Chinese, Germans and Americans.
Just last August there were massive protests against the Vucic government over the plan to sell the Jadar lithium mine mining rights to Rio Tinto (UK) and BlackRock (USA) in a deal that was worth close to 4 billion USD. That mine in itself produces more than half of Europe's lithium needs.
Milorad Dodik is much closer to Russia and from his POV it doesn't make any sense to aim for unification with Serbia either. Would be akin to surrendering his own project to the whims of Serbian career politicians who are payrolled by the EU and US. Instead Dodik's banking on building up and maturing the Republika Sprska's institutions at the cost of the Federal BiH government in Sarajevo and the UN High Commissioner, behind the curtains supported by Putin.
Serbia will at some point look at reinstating the Union with Montenegro to regain access to the Mediterranean, playing different blocs against each other. Nothing to gain in Kosovo. RS will want to gradually move towards total autonomy within the BiH framework, or outside it.
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Dodik is pushing forward autonomy. A new Republika Sprska Constitution has been hammered in, and the RS will create its own intel services and special forces.
In response the BiH Federal authorities have ordered Dodik's arrest. Yesterday rumours occured that EUFOR will aid in Dodik's arrest.
In response the BiH Federal authorities have ordered Dodik's arrest. Yesterday rumours occured that EUFOR will aid in Dodik's arrest.
I see no scenario where that arrest with help of armed forces doesn't spiral into a bunch of violence and fighting.
Anyway, regarding Serbia, Vucic isn't necessarily pro Russia but the Serbs generally support Russia more than they do NATO because of what happened in the past and because Serbs reject a lot of wokeism.
We'll see which side they end up on once/if they overthrow Vucic.
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Those would be really tiny countries. Too small to actually be viable independent nations, I would think.
What's going on in Belgrade today? Is it full blown Maidan yet, or still an actual "peaceful protest"?
Ex-Yugoslavs are generally already armed, unless you mean heavy artillery. My Serbian friends I've spoken to generally all agree that the government needs to go, but they also admit that they have no one to replace the government. Some of them say that some preliminary government would have to step in. But that's precisely where the issues lies, in my opinion, you can't just expect a bunch of random dudes to take care of international relations for 6 to 12 months and not have them ruin everything.
I do feel kind of sorry for them, because no one outside of the current ruling party is actually competent enough to handle international relations or rich enough to not get fall into the same corruption trap their government has.
The BiH High Court has finalized its arrest warrant for Milorad Dodik, the warrant was then re-issued by Interpol through a red notice making all international signees mandated to implement the warrant.
At the time of issuance Dodik was in Israel attending an anti-semitism conference. When the news about the Interpol warrant broke he was quickly whisked out of the conference, put on a plane and flown to Serbia. The Serbs are currently trying delaying the red notice to give Dodik enough time to reach Republika Sprskan territory.
At the time of issuance Dodik was in Israel attending an anti-semitism conference. When the news about the Interpol warrant broke he was quickly whisked out of the conference, put on a plane and flown to Serbia. The Serbs are currently trying delaying the red notice to give Dodik enough time to reach Republika Sprskan territory.
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Speaking of which, Kurti was actually pranked by two Russian pranksters. They asked him questions about Kosovo, USAID, Serbia etc. Kurti said he supports the protests in Belgrade too and that Serbia needs a government that will recognize Kosovo.
Proof that it's not just some ai deep fake:
In other news, this beautiful flag could be seen at Red Star's last home game:
