Iran-Israeli Conflict Thread
- Thread starter LaAguilaNegra
- Start date
Just now.
At 11¢/gal I might go over and try to smuggle out a few shopping bags full of petrol.
Ahh, covid. Good times.
He is usually accurate. If he is here, we are walking into a trap.
The MSM including right wing outlets like Fox has been outright lying about the Ukraine war, hiding Ukraine loss figures and grossly understating Russian military capabilities for 4 years.
At least Macgregor was correct about the outcome of the war, if not the pace of that outcome.
I've seen people on this board call Ray Dalio and Peter Schiff wrong just because they were too impatient with the timing and its obvious they said that because Ray & Peter align with IIMT's thinking when both Ray and Peter are absolutely correct and if you had taken action on their advice, you would've profited handsomely last year.
This petty message board war against IIMT for his post back in 2024 is starting to show its brain rot.
MSM being wrong when they talked about the Ghost of Kiev does not absolve McGregor of being wrong about Russia overrunning Ukraine in a matter of months. Rather it just means both sides were heavily influenced by motivated reasoning and jumped the gun when they shouldn't have.
What's being argued for that is that McGregor is "usually accurate" which I don't think is true based on his record in the same way we wouldn't say a guy who has predicted a market crash for a decade is 'usually accurate' if in one out of ten years he is finally right.
There are many elements to the Ukraine war, Macgregor is accurate on most, except on Russian tactics of implementing a war of attrition based on artillery rather than a big arrow campaign similar to what they did at the beginning of the war or what Macgregor was involved in during the Iraq war, where he led US tank divisions, that's it. He's been right on nearly every other facet of this war.
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Looks like the talks have come to an end and reports of a second round of talks in coming days. The stock market is shooting up, as is the EURUSD, meaning risk on. This is often the best indicator for war, those in the know and with inside information will invest based on likelihood of war. And these signs point to the talks going well and war being unlikely. Great news so far.
McGregor is one of several alternative media dodo's who said that Israel was losing the war in Gaza more than a year into the slaughter. He gets a LOT of things like that wrong and it appears it's because he projects his moral principles into his predictions for military and political conflicts.
Agree and I think that's a huge issue with how a lot of people reason when they are trying to assess a situation. I'm against Israeli influence in the US as much as anyone else here and think they have been a bane to the US for decades but its still clear to me that Israel is the dominant force in the Middle East and it's silly to expect that a country like Iran, let alone a rag tag group like Hamas has any chance to stand up to them. My desire to see Israel finally stop getting away with everything doesn't trump what's the situation on the ground is.
The people who place IQ at the center of everything should be able to see even clearer that the countries around Israel don't have the ability to contest them in any serious way. However, if you let your own moral principles affect your judgement (such as the desire for Israel get their comeuppance) then it will distort your judgement.
If your measure of war, and winning, is simply dropping bombs from a jet, in a vacuum where it doesn't destroy your reputation on a global scale, and doesn't have a ripple effect, you are correct.
Right now, Israel is as weak as it has been in decades because of their behavior. They have had a massive outflow of population, their economy has been hit, and for the first time in a long time their neurotic population feels unsafe. Hamas is still standing, Iran is growing stronger, and no one under 40 in the USA has any respect for Israel at all. They did a great job of bombing apartments and killing children, they did a bad job in protecting their reputation and support from those they need it the most.
I do agree that Israel's reputation is at it's lowest. That's not something I have ever challenged. What I instead was challenging was the evaluation of what was happening on the battlefield on the ground where people's perceptions were massively distorted to the point they thought Tel Aviv wouldn't be on a map, as an example.
If I recall, there's people here that thought Iran was winning on military grounds despite there been no actual indicators on the battlefield they were. Being able to drop bombs from a jet without the target country being able to challenge that as in Iran or being able to level neighborhood at will like what is happening in Gaza is indeed an indication of military superiority. I'm not saying this is moral or right for Israel to do so. Rather I'm merely saying that it's a sign that Israel is able to dominate their surrounding neighbors militarily. Only people who are letting their moral principles distort their view of what is going on are going to deny this, to circle back to the original point. I don't like that Israel can run unchallenged pulling these sort of stunts, but that is indeed what is happening whether I like it or not. I thought you were big on being realist such as when you talk about how China is going to destroy the west whether we like it or not? If you can be sober minded in that situation, you should be able to be sober minded here too.
Also, I recall one of the big reasons you gave for why you thought Iran was winning the last skirmish against Israel was because you saw videos on X of Iranian missiles being launched into Israel. By your own standards, seeing big explosions and buildings collapsing is an indication of a country winning a war. Did you change your mind on that? If you did, then it must mean you did actually in the end thought that Iran did not achieve victory.
If global reputation is a factor, then you can't say Russia is winning either since they are also a global pariah at this point. In that case, it's another example of MgGregor's evaluation of the war being off.
If I recall, there's people here that thought Iran was winning on military grounds despite there been no actual indicators on the battlefield they were. Being able to drop bombs from a jet without the target country being able to challenge that as in Iran or being able to level neighborhood at will like what is happening in Gaza is indeed an indication of military superiority. I'm not saying this is moral or right for Israel to do so. Rather I'm merely saying that it's a sign that Israel is able to dominate their surrounding neighbors militarily. Only people who are letting their moral principles distort their view of what is going on are going to deny this, to circle back to the original point. I don't like that Israel can run unchallenged pulling these sort of stunts, but that is indeed what is happening whether I like it or not. I thought you were big on being realist such as when you talk about how China is going to destroy the west whether we like it or not? If you can be sober minded in that situation, you should be able to be sober minded here too.
Also, I recall one of the big reasons you gave for why you thought Iran was winning the last skirmish against Israel was because you saw videos on X of Iranian missiles being launched into Israel. By your own standards, seeing big explosions and buildings collapsing is an indication of a country winning a war. Did you change your mind on that? If you did, then it must mean you did actually in the end thought that Iran did not achieve victory.
If global reputation is a factor, then you can't say Russia is winning either since they are also a global pariah at this point. In that case, it's another example of MgGregor's evaluation of the war being off.
Do you think Israel shut down all media and arrested people for taking pictures of the damage Iran caused, just for fun?
If Iran wasn't winning that battle, Iran's regime would be gone by now, as that was the stated objective by Israel.
In what world is Russia a global pariah? Like where does this exist other than in the minds of the satanic elites and the weirdo anti-White leftists in the west?
Iran did win the 12 day war, we know this because otherwise Israel would have kept the war going, just as they keep bombing Gaza and Lebanon today.
Iran didn't quite level Tel Aviv, but they have landed several big punches that caused Bibi to cry uncle, leveling Israeli holy sites like their diamond exchange and stock trading centers, as well as most of their biological and bioweapon research center, a loss that is harder to replace as the physical specimens have been wiped out.
As IIMT also pointed out, the fallout from that war was a big psychological blow that has caused the more casual zionists there to look into emigrating, and that will hamper future foreign business investment there, especially in high end infrastructure and pĥysical plants. It's gotten a lot harder to convince techbros from California or Germany to work at Intel or Siemens plants n Tel Aviv.
Israel is going to risk it again and force Trump to attack Iran because they are half-crazy maniacs and they also realize that Iran left unmolested will become a military powerhouse in a couple of years as China and Russia rebuild their air force and air defenses. They also might not have the same pull over the next POTUS, who will probably not be as compromised or compliant as Trump.
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Probably for the same reason Iran had the Internet blackout recently. Regimes generally want to control the narrative to make themselves appear in the best light. I'm assuming you don't think Iran shutting down their communications in a much more drastic way is a sign of them 'losing' so by that same logic, Israel stopping people didn't taking pictures in some incidents doesn't mean much either
Both Israel and Iran have the ultimate goal of destroying each other regimes. Neither side has achieved this goal as Israel still exists and the Iranian regime still exists. Israel did get achieve more of their goals since they did manage to delay Iran nuclear program and even got the US to do their dirty work. If Iran was the winner shouldn't they have been able to stop those facilities from being bombed and to stop the repeated incursions into their airspace? Israel was able to impose more of their will upon Iran than vice versa. If the fact the Iranian regime still stands means they 'won' the hasn't Israel also 'won' just as much by the same reasoning since Israel still exists since it means the Iranian regime has not achieved their goals?
Russia is indeed a global pariah in the eyes of most normies. Normiecons and normies in general could be misinformed and incorrect about Russia since they don't listen to the same red pill based podcasts you do and they don't look into the information people on this part of the Internet does. However , even if they are wrong about their opinion it doesn't change the fact the general public doesn't have a favorable impression of Russia. This isn't just a leftist opinion it's the opinion of your standard boomer. Thanks for giving another example of how disconnected you are from the majority of people think and not realizing that most people aren't spending their days listening to 'based' 5+ hour podcasts.
Also weirdo leftists when compared to the general public have tended to be against the US getting more involved in the Russia/Ukraine conflict and they also tend to be anti-NATO since they see all of this as extensions of western imperialism. It's normie liberals and conservatives which greatly outnumber the weirdo leftists and dissident right that have a negative impression of Russia. Of course, if most of your impressions going on is in these communities that are made up of these perpetually online people, your views of what normie opinion is like will be majorly distorted.
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Yes, Iran was hit hard by CIA/Mossad backed insurrection, but it failed, and when they successfully shut down Starlink, a major message was sent to the satanic west. So, yes, they too shut down the internet, for the same reason as Israel, they were hit hard. But the attempted coup failed and again Israel/the west lost. But, yes, the point stands, when you are hit hard you shut down the internet and arrest people for taking pictures, which was true in Israel.
Iran's goal has a longer time frame. They would like to remove Israel, but they have time on their side. The longer they can hold on, the better the chance they have at winning, and both sides know this. Third world immigration into the west has been a major blunder and now time is on the Iranian's side due to it. As this biological bomb continues to spread and explode, the west will become weaker and weaker.
Russia is a global pariah in the satanic west to weirdo anti-White leftist and the satanic elite. On a global scale, the west is seen as the pariah, especially after the Epstein file dump. Weirdo-leftists are the ones in the west pushing war with Russia, you are incorrect here. It is the right-wing in the west who has been more against war in Russia. Weirdo-leftists are confused on Iran, whereas the right-wing is losing favor of a conflict with Iran as more information comes out. Probably a term issue, anyone still on the left wing in the west, "normie" or not, I consider a "weirdo-leftist" because you have to be very off mentally to still support left-wing policies.
I don't believe Israel had a complete internet shutdown. Rather they were just stopping people from taking pictures and they didn't want certain things to get online. I wouldn't put that in the same ballpark as having a complete nation wide shutdown. I actually don't even think any of this is really relevant to who ended up ahead in a military clash. Rather the important things is who was able to impose their will on the other and who was able to defend and in this case, it was Israel that was able to continually penetrate into Iran with aircraft, with assassinations, with agents while Iran wasn't able to defend against this or return in kind.
On the issue of third-world immigration on how it benefits Iran: you seem to be applying your IQ theory where a higher IQ country will inevitably take over a lower IQ country and turn everyone there into fertilizer. If this theory is true, then this should mean in the future Israel will be able take over the land of Iran and turn everyone into fertilizer in the same way they are doing in Gaza. In the past you've insisted that Iran has an average IQ over 100 based on an online IQ quiz site and from talking to one Iranian in the past - in other words from a weak source and from anecdotal experience. However, if you look at the actual research it has consistently shown Israeli IQ being higher and Iranian IQ being sub 90. These reports come from the same sources that you use when you are talking about how the US IQ is going to drop due to 80 IQ Africans and Hispanics and sub 90 IQ Indians taking over the country. If you are calling into the question these studies because you don't think they are reporting correctly on Iranian IQ then it also puts into question if this study should be trusted for it's reported IQs on Africans and Indians etc. which would completely undermine your fertilizer theory. Are you willing to take that step?
Your definition of "weird leftist" pretty much covers anyone who isn't a based online dissident guy which is 98% of the population which renders the definition useless. Also it is true that the left and far left is generally against NATO and war with Russia. Look at sites like the Intercept and hang out in online leftist spaces and you'll see they think the US and NATO are western imperialist aggressors trying to pick a fight with Russia.
On the issue of third-world immigration on how it benefits Iran: you seem to be applying your IQ theory where a higher IQ country will inevitably take over a lower IQ country and turn everyone there into fertilizer. If this theory is true, then this should mean in the future Israel will be able take over the land of Iran and turn everyone into fertilizer in the same way they are doing in Gaza. In the past you've insisted that Iran has an average IQ over 100 based on an online IQ quiz site and from talking to one Iranian in the past - in other words from a weak source and from anecdotal experience. However, if you look at the actual research it has consistently shown Israeli IQ being higher and Iranian IQ being sub 90. These reports come from the same sources that you use when you are talking about how the US IQ is going to drop due to 80 IQ Africans and Hispanics and sub 90 IQ Indians taking over the country. If you are calling into the question these studies because you don't think they are reporting correctly on Iranian IQ then it also puts into question if this study should be trusted for it's reported IQs on Africans and Indians etc. which would completely undermine your fertilizer theory. Are you willing to take that step?
Your definition of "weird leftist" pretty much covers anyone who isn't a based online dissident guy which is 98% of the population which renders the definition useless. Also it is true that the left and far left is generally against NATO and war with Russia. Look at sites like the Intercept and hang out in online leftist spaces and you'll see they think the US and NATO are western imperialist aggressors trying to pick a fight with Russia.